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5/8/20151 Housing Australians : The Challenges Ahead Shane Goodwin Managing Director Housing Industry Association 1 July 2010 John Curtin Institute of.

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Presentation on theme: "5/8/20151 Housing Australians : The Challenges Ahead Shane Goodwin Managing Director Housing Industry Association 1 July 2010 John Curtin Institute of."— Presentation transcript:

1 5/8/20151 Housing Australians : The Challenges Ahead Shane Goodwin Managing Director Housing Industry Association 1 July 2010 John Curtin Institute of Public Policy

2 5/8/20152 “In respect to ageing, between now and 2050, people aged 65 to 84 years will more than double and the number of people aged 85 and over will more than quadruple. By 2050, there will be only 2.7 people of working age for every person aged 65 and over. Today there is five.” Wayne Swan, Treasurer Changing Demographic Profile

3 5/8/20153 Australian Population Projections Percentage of total population Low Base and over Low = popn. growth of 0.8% p.a. Base = popn. growth of 1.2% p.a Low and Base case Source: Treasury projections

4 5/8/20154 National top 20 Building & Population Hotspots*

5 5/8/20155 WA Building & Population Hotspots**

6 5/8/20156 Acknowledgement : Bernard Salt - Address to HIA National Policy Congress, Gold Coast, May 2010

7 5/8/20157 Australian Population Growth

8 5/8/20158 Dwelling Requirements 0 50, , , , , ,000 Current projectionsSmall AustraliaBig AustraliaCurrent trend Number New Dwelling Requirements to 2020 Average annual starts requiredHousing Starts based on current trend Source: HIA

9 5/8/20159 Dwelling Requirements 1,920,000 1,819,811 2,059,811 2,419, , , ,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000 1,750,000 2,000,000 2,250,000 2,500,000 2,750,000 Current projectionsSmall AustraliaBig AustraliaCurrent trend Number Total Dwelling Requirements to 2020 Total new dwellings requiredCurrent CapacityPotential Capacity Source: ABS,HIA Current Trend

10 5/8/ Housing Shortfall

11 5/8/ Housing Shortfall

12 5/8/ Housing Affordability Decline

13 5/8/ Housing Shortfall

14 5/8/ Average number of persons in household - Australia Source: ABS4130.0

15 5/8/ Obstacles to boosting supply Systemic obstacles to boosting Australia’s supply of housing stock:  Lack of readily available land  Planning delays  Infrastructure tax and charges  Finance constraints

16 5/8/ State Planning & Building processes for Detached Housing Approvals (1 May 2010)

17 5/8/ House and Land

18 5/8/ House and Land

19 5/8/ Capping of Levies in NSW Pre December 2008December 2008 to June 2010After 7 June 2010 Local Council (s94)$58,970 $20,000 State InfrastructureUp to $33,000$11,000 Water Charges$18,000$0 Total$109,970$69,970$31,000 Notes: 1. No exemptions existed prior to December The state Infrastructure Charge (SIC) of $33,000 was reduced to $11,000 in the December 2008 announcement. (HIA is currently lobbying to retain this cap beyond July 2011.) 3. The water charge was also removed in the December 2008 announcement 4. The majority of councils in the SW growth area were granted an exemption to the December 2008 ($20,000) cap Example of Reduction in Section 94 Charges

20 5/8/ Source : 2005 Australian Infrastructure, Report Card, Institution of Engineers Australia Infrastructure Backlogs  Significant infrastructure investment backlogs (2005):  Electricity has an under-investment of $1.15 billion  Gas has an under-investment of $2.6 billion  Road has an under-investment of $10 billion  Rail has an under-investment of $8.06 billion  Water has a potential under-investment of $3 billion The total estimated under-investment is $24.81 billion

21 5/8/ Workforce Profile

22 5/8/ Trade & Non-Trade Commencements Seasonally adjusted, (‘000)

23 5/8/ Apprentice Commencements

24 5/8/ Apprentice and Trainee Attrition Rates from Contracts, by Occupation

25 5/8/ Commonwealth Skilled Occupation List Skills Shortages 1 July 2010  Air-conditioning mechanic  Architect  Bricklayer  Carpenter  Carpenter & Joiner  Construction project manager  Drainer  Electrician  Fibrous plasterer  Gasfitter  Geotechnical engineer  Glazier  Joiner  Painter  Plumber  Project builder  Quantity surveyor  Roof plumber  Solid plasterer  Stonemason  Structural engineer  Wall & floor tiler

26 5/8/ Summary of Commonwealth Incentive Payments for Apprentices in Building Industry

27 5/8/ Summary of State Incentive Payments for Apprentices in Building Industry

28 5/8/201528

29 5/8/201529


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