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การสัมมนาวิชาการทางการเงิน : นโยบาย ทางเศรษฐกิจและสังคม หนี้สาธารณะ : ระเบิดเวลา หรือ ยา กระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ ? A: Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure : Connecting.

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Presentation on theme: "การสัมมนาวิชาการทางการเงิน : นโยบาย ทางเศรษฐกิจและสังคม หนี้สาธารณะ : ระเบิดเวลา หรือ ยา กระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ ? A: Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure : Connecting."— Presentation transcript:

1 การสัมมนาวิชาการทางการเงิน : นโยบาย ทางเศรษฐกิจและสังคม หนี้สาธารณะ : ระเบิดเวลา หรือ ยา กระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ ? A: Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure : Connecting ASEAN B: Public Debt : Well contained under 50 % of GDP C: Bond Market : Innovative + Sustainable source of funding นายจักรกฤศฏิ์ พาราพันธกุล รองปลัดกระทรวงการคลัง หัวหน้ากลุ่มภารกิจด้านทรัพย์สิน Tel. : ธันวาคม 2555 เวลา 9.30 – น. ณ ห้อง 206 ตึกอนุสรณ์ 50 ปี คณะพาณิชยศาสตร์และการบัญชี จุฬาลงกรณ์มหาวิทยาลัย

2 Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand A. Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure : Connecting ASEAN Swift and Effective Government Fiscal Stimulus Packages  From S-T Injection Towards L-T Investment Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure Investment Plan THB 2,000,000 million (USD 66 billion) Resilient Economy Despite Political Challenges

3 3 Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand Swift and Effective Government Fiscal Stimulus Packages Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012, and Fiscal Policy Office, for Thailand’s 2012F-2019F Real GDP yoy % Change THB 2,000,000 mil (USD 66bn) THB 2,000,000 mil (USD 66bn) THB 350,000 mil. (USD 12bn) THB 350,000 mil. (USD 12bn) Avg. GDP = % (CY ) Asian Financial Crisis EU Crisis + Floods 1.5 yr Emergency DECREE THB 350,000 mil. (USD 12bn) THB 350,000 mil. (USD 12bn) US Crisis From… S-T Injection Towards… L-T Investment Price Stability Avg. CPI Growth Rate:  Past 15yr ( ) = 3.0 %  Past 10yr ( ) = 3.1 %  Past 5yr ( ) = 2.9 % Price Stability Avg. CPI Growth Rate:  Past 15yr ( ) = 3.0 %  Past 10yr ( ) = 3.1 %  Past 5yr ( ) = 2.9 % 7 yr Infrastructure BILL 1.5 yr Emergency DECREE 2015F 2020F

4 Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure THB 2,000,000 Mil (USD 66 Bil) Source: Report on Investment Plan for Transport sector (Year ) and Fiscal Policy Office Mode Number of Projects Value of Projects (USD Bil) % Share Rail Transport % Road Transport % Water Transport74.266% Air Transport43.135% Total % Sources of Financing $1.3 Bil $17.2 Bil $7.1 Bil $13.2 Bil $12.0 Bil $6.5 Bil $4.9 Bil$4.4 Bil 4 Est. Revenue2,100,0002,342,5002,527,5002,726,0002,941,000 Est. Expenditure2,400,0002,567,5002,677,5002,801,0002,941, ,000 MB 300,000 MB 225,000 MB 150,000 MB 75,000 MB Connecting ASEAN GOVT BUDGET (Mil Baht) BALANCED Budget FY Infrastructure Inv’t Plan Budget Deficit (Fiscal Year) $10.0 Bil $7.5 Bil $5.0 Bil $7.5 Bil 39,200 MB 195,300 MB 359,900 MB 398,500 MB 516,400 MB 146,600 MB 131,300 MB 213,800 MB

5 2004 : More than 100 suspected Islamic insurgents carry out coordinated dawn attacks on police bases in the south 2004 : More than 100 suspected Islamic insurgents carry out coordinated dawn attacks on police bases in the south 2006 : Military leaders overthrow the interim government of Thaksin Shinawatra. Retired General Surayud Chulanont appointed interim Prim Minister 2006 : Military leaders overthrow the interim government of Thaksin Shinawatra. Retired General Surayud Chulanont appointed interim Prim Minister 2008 : Protesters block government buildings and airports. Opposition leader Aphisit Vejjajiva becomes Thailand’s new Prime Minister, the third new leader in three months 2008 : Protesters block government buildings and airports. Opposition leader Aphisit Vejjajiva becomes Thailand’s new Prime Minister, the third new leader in three months 2009 : PM Abhisit Vejjajiva declares a state of emergency and moves troops into Bangkok to end an opposition protest sit-in. Over 120 police injured in resulting clashes. Emergency lifted on 24 April 2011 Yingluck Shinawatra becomes PM, garnering more than half of 500 parliamentary seats. Floods kill hundreds and engulf the outskirts of Bangkok 2011 Yingluck Shinawatra becomes PM, garnering more than half of 500 parliamentary seats. Floods kill hundreds and engulf the outskirts of Bangkok US Crisis Resilient Economy Despite Political Challenges Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand EU Crisis + Flood Next Election Since 2011 Election, Stable Political Environment has been Favourable to Government’s Long-Term Policies 5 Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012, and Fiscal Policy Office, for Thailand’s 2012F-2019F (THB billion)

6 Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand B. Public Debt : Well contained under 50 % of GDP Public Debt to GDP (by country) Public Debt Outstanding (as of Sep 2012) = 4.9 THB Trillion (44 % of GDP) FY 2012 highlights : FIDF Debt Shared 25 % of Total Public Debt FIDF Decree passed : reduced fiscal burden by 70,000 MB a year (though Public Debt remains unchanged) Public Debt to GDP Well Contained under 50 % amidst Crises

7 304% 200 % 150 % 100 % 50 % 0%0% High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI Very High HDI 2. Japan 192 % 6. Singapore 118 % 8. Greece 108 % 18. Germany 77 % 22. England 69 % 31. India 60 % 56. Thailand 44 % 89. Indonesia 30 % 91. South Korea 28 % 107. China 18 % 108. Hong Kong 18 % 42. America 53 % WORLD 54 % 32. Philippines 59 % 2009 est. Source : CIA – The World Fact Book 1. Zimbabwe 304 % 50. Malaysia 48 % % to GDP Public Debt to GDP (by country) Too BiG Too FaLL??? Sep 2012

8 Special Financial Institution Guaranteed Debt 7 % 0.35 THB Trillion Public Debt Outstanding (as of Sep 2012) = 4.9 THB Trillion (44 % of GDP ) GOV’T Debt 48 % GOV’T Debt (for FIDF) 22 % 1.13** THB Trillion Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt 22 % 1.06 THB Trillion Components of Public Debt Units : THB Mil. 1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF) 2,381,879** 2. Government Debt (for FIDF) 1,133, Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt 1,064,289** 4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 352,207** 5. Autonomous Agency Debt (VP and EFPO)5,732** Public Debt Outstanding (as of Jun 2012) 4,937,239 *Including 52,647 THB Mil. of External Debt 2.38 THB Trillion Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand Autonomous Agency Debt (VP and EFPO) 1 % THB Trillion

9 FIDF Decree Passed : educed fiscal burden by 60,000MB a year (though public debt remained) PDDF Activated : restructuring of FIDF’s 340,122MB saved over 7,000MB a year and enhanced overall FIDF maturity profile Strategies in Managing FIDF’s Debt Portfolio : to allow for early-repayment FIDF Debt Shared 25 % of Total Public Debt FY 2012 highlights MB

10 FIDF Decree Passed Interest Payment Reduced ~ 70,000 THB Mil. a Year (Although Public Debt Unchanged, Fiscal Room Freed up by 5 % ) % Share of Total Budget Expenditures THB Mil. Interest Payment for FIDF Debt Interest Payment for GOV’T Debt Principle Repayment for GOV’T Debt % Share of Allocated Principle & Interest to Budget Expenditures 9%9% 12 % FIDF Interest Payment 7%7% 5%5% 4%4% 8%8% 11 % Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

11 Public Debt to GDP Well Contained under 50% amidst Crises Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand F iscal Sustainability Framework Public Debt to GDP < 60 % F iscal Sustainability Framework Public Debt to GDP < 60 % 60 % Asian Financial Crisis US Financial Crisis (1) Euro Financial Crisis (2) Thailand’s Flooding Crisis in 2011 (3 ) Infra. Investment Plan ( ) THB 2,000,000 million (USD 66 billion ) Public Debt to GDP External Public Debt to GDP at Single Digit Including THB 2,000,000 million (USD 66bn) Infrastructure Investment Plan ( )

12 Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand C. Bond Market : Innovative + Sustainable source of funding Bond Market Cap. = 8.4 THB Trillion : Government Bond = 3.0 THB Trillion Innovation of Government Debt Securities (FY2007 – FY2013) Full Capacity of All Government Funding Instruments (FY2013)  1,150,000 THB Mil Well-Developed Bond Market Improved Government Debt Profile Dramatically

13 Bond Market Cap. = 8.4 THB Trillion GOVT Bond = 3.0 THB Trillion Asian Fin. Crisis 128 % 24 % 12 % 96 % 75 % Baht Bond Corp. Bond SOE Bond BOT Bond GOVT Bond 1% 19% 7% 37 % 36 % Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer % Share of GDP 3.1 THB Trillion 3.0 THB Trillion Maturity Profile BOT vs GOVT Bond BOT MOF BOT ATM = 1yr GOVT ATM = 7yrs 6mths $270 Bil. (Nov 2012) Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand ($100 bil) ($270 Bil.)($100 Bil.)

14 Allow both issuer and investors to improve their portfolio Larger outstanding size + Less bond series  more liquidity in the secondary market Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP Pay back the bond principal by installments  Promote the government’s fiscal discipline FY2007 – FY2013 Innovation of GOV’T Debt Securities FY FY 2011 Broaden investor base – Retail investors Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond Increase floating debt ratio of Total Government Debt Portfolio  10% to 18%* Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate) Lengthen average-time-to-maturity of Total Government Debt Portfolio  5yrs 7mths to 7yrs 6mths Meet Long-term investors’ demand FY PDDF Activated (Public Debt Restructuring and Domestic Bond Market Development Fund) Upgrade PD Privileges Baht Bond CGIF Activated (Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility) Step-up Savings Bond Floating Rate Bond 30-yr Benchmark Bond Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase / Offer throughout the year Develop the retail bond into an electronic form  Scripless System Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches Strong anti-inflationary signal Deepen the Development of the Bond market 1 st country in Emerging Asian Economies Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity 4 th country in the world (1 st : UK 2 nd : France 3 rd : China) 50-yr Benchmark Bond Electronic Retail Savings Bond Electronic Retail Savings Bond 10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB) Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors Non-Benchmark tenors Fixed Rate Promissory Note Bond Switching & Consolidation Amortised Bond Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand From yr ILB

15 LB 3 yr150,000 THB Mil. LB 5 yr120,000 THB Mil. LB 7 yr 80,000 THB Mil. LB 10 yr 80,000 THB Mil. LB 15 yr 60,000 THB Mil. LB 20 yr 60,000 THB Mil. LB 30 yr 30,000 THB Mil. LB 50 yr 20,000 THB Mil. Benchmark Bond Savings Bond ~ 100,000 THB Mil. (9 % ) Promissory Note ~ 100,000 THB Mil. (9 % ) Inflation-Linked Bond ~ 50,000 THB Mil. (4 % ) Floating Rate Bond ~ 50,000 THB Mil. (4 % ) Bank Loan ~ 200,000 THB Mi (18 % ) Benchmark Bond ~ 600,000 THB Mil. (52 % ) Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100 % ) Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~ 50,000 THB Mil. (4 % ) Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil. * Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand ($5 bil.) ($3 bil.) ($4 bil.) ($2 bil.) ($1 bil.) ($0.8 bil.) ($3 bil.) ($20 bil.) ($1.5 bil.) ($3 bil.) ($1.2 bil.) ($40 bil.) ($3 bil.) ($1.5 bil.) ($7 bil.) ($40 Bil.) Funding Instruments

16 (1)ATM Lengthened (2)Cost Lowered (3)Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio (4)Well-Distributed Maturity Profile Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOV’T Direct Debt ( 1.87 THB Mil.) Profile Dramatically Float 13 % Float 10 % ATM 5 yrs 3 mths ATM 8 yrs 9 mth s Avg. cost 4.5 % As of Dec 2007As of Jun 2012 Average-Time-to-Maturity LENGTHENED by 3 ½ yrs Avg. Cost LOWERED by 30 bps. (While ATM Lengthened by 3 ½ yrs) Avg. Cost LOWERED by 30 bps. (While ATM Lengthened by 3 ½ yrs) Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio (Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20) Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio (Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20) Avg. cost 4.2 % Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand Maturity Profile as of Dec 2009 Maturity Profile as of Jun 2012 Well-Distributed Maturity Profile Target Reached : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs is less than 50 % of Total Debt Well-Distributed Maturity Profile Target Reached : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs is less than 50 % of Total Debt 61 % 24 % 15 % 50 % 20 % 30 % Fixed 87 % Fixed 90 %


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