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PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook The University of West Alabama Part III Developing the Entrepreneurial Plan C H A P T E R 9 © 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Assessment of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–2 Chapter Objectives 1.To explain the challenge of new-venture start-ups 2.To review common pitfalls in the selection of new- venture ideas 3.To present critical factors involved in new-venture development 4.To examine why new ventures fail 5.To study certain factors that underlie venture success 6.To analyze the evaluation process methods: profile analysis, feasibility criteria approach, and comprehensive feasibility method 7.To outline the specific activities involved in a comprehensive feasibility evaluation
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–3 The Challenge of New-Venture Start-Ups New Venture Formation New Venture Formation 600,000 new firms have emerged in the United States every year since the mid-1990s. Ideas for Potential New Businesses Ideas for Potential New Businesses The U.S. Patent Office currently reviews more than 375,000 patent applications per year.
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–4 Components of New-Venture Motivation 1. The need for approval 2. The need for independence 3. The need for personal development 4. Welfare (philanthropic) considerations 5. Perception of wealth 6. Tax reduction and indirect benefits 7. Following role models
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–5 Reasons for Starting a Venture Entrepreneurial Motivations The Venture The Environment Personal Characteristics
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–6 Figure 9.1 The Elements Affecting New-Venture Performance Source: Arnold C. Cooper, “Challenges in Predicting New Firm Performance,” Journal of Business Venturing (May 1993): 243. Reprinted with permission.
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–7 Pitfalls in Selecting New Ventures Lack of objective evaluation Lack of objective evaluation No real insight into the market No real insight into the market Inadequate understanding of technical requirements Inadequate understanding of technical requirements Poor financial understanding Poor financial understanding Lack of venture uniqueness Lack of venture uniqueness Ignorance of legal issues Ignorance of legal issues
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–8 Phases in New-Venture Start-ups Prestart-up Phase Prestart-up Phase Begins with an idea for the venture and ends when the doors are opened for business. Start-up Phase Start-up Phase Commences with the initiation of sales activity and the delivery of products and services and ends when the business is firmly established and beyond short-term threats to survival. Poststart-up Phase Poststart-up Phase Lasts until the venture is terminated or the surviving organizational entity is no longer controlled by an entrepreneur.
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–9 Critical Factors for New-Venture Development 1. Uniqueness of venture 2. Investment size 3. Expected sales growth Lifestyle ventures Small profitable ventures High-growth ventures 4. Product availability 5. Customer availability
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–10 Table 9.1 A New-Venture Idea Checklist Source: Karl H. Vesper, New Venture Strategies, copyright © 1990, 172. Adapted by permission of Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Basic Feasibility of the Venture 1. Can the product or service work? 2. Is it legal? Competitive Advantages of the Venture 1. What specific competitive advantages will the product or service offer? 2. What are the competitive advantages of the companies already in business? 3. How are the competitors likely to respond? 4. How will the initial competitive advantage be maintained? Buyer Decisions in the Venture 1. Who are the customers likely to be? 2. How much will each customer buy, and how many customers are there? 3. Where are these customers located, and how will they be serviced? Marketing of the Goods and Services 1. How much will be spent on advertising and selling? 2. What share of market will the company capture? By when? 3. Who will perform the selling functions? 4. How will prices be set? How will they compare with the competition’s prices? 5. How important is location, and how will it be determined? 6. What distribution channels will be used—wholesale, retail, agents, direct mail? 7. What are the sales targets? By when should they be met? 8. Can any orders be obtained before starting the business? How many? For what total amount?
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–11 Table 9.1 A New-Venture Idea Checklist (cont’d) Source: Karl H. Vesper, New Venture Strategies, copyright © 1990, 172. Adapted by permission of Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Production of the Goods and Services 1. Will the company make or buy what it sells? Or will it use a combination of these two strategies? 2. Are sources of supplies available at reasonable prices? 3. How long will delivery take? 4. Have adequate lease arrangements for premises been made? 5. Will the needed equipment be available on time? 6. Do any special problems with plant setup, clearances, or insurance exist? How will they be resolved? 7. How will quality be controlled? 8. How will returns and servicing be handled? 9. How will pilferage, waste, spoilage, and scrap be controlled? Staffing Decisions in the Venture 1. How will competence in each area of the business be ensured? 2. Who will have to be hired? By when? How will they be found and recruited? 3. Will a banker, lawyer, accountant, or other advisers be needed? 4. How will replacements be obtained if key people leave? 5. Will special benefit plans have to be arranged? Control of the Venture 1. What records will be needed? When? 2. Will any special controls be required? What are they? Who will be responsible for them?
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–12 Table 9.1 A New-Venture Idea Checklist (cont’d) Source: Karl H. Vesper, New Venture Strategies, copyright © 1990, 172. Adapted by permission of Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Financing the Venture 1. How much will be needed for development of the product or service? 2. How much will be needed for setting up operations? 3. How much will be needed for working capital? 4. Where will the money come from? What if more is needed? 5. Which assumptions in the financial forecasts are most uncertain? 6. What will be the return on equity, or sales, and how does it compare with the rest of the industry? 7. When and how will investors get their money back? 8. What will be needed from the bank, and what is the bank’s response?
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–13 Why New Ventures Fail Product/Market Problems Product/Market Problems Financial Difficulties Financial Difficulties Managerial Problems Managerial Problems
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–14 Causes for Failure Product/Market Problems Product/Market Problems Poor timing Product design problems Inappropriate distribution strategy Unclear business definition Overreliance on one customer Financial Difficulties Financial Difficulties Initial undercapitalization Assuming debt too early Venture capital relationship problems Managerial Problems Managerial Problems Concept of a team approach Human resource problems
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–15 Table 9.2 Types and Classes of First-Year Problems Source: David E. Terpstra and Philip D. Olson, “Entrepreneurial Start-up and Growth: A Classification of Problems,” Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice (spring 1993): Obtaining external financing Obtaining financing for growth Other or general financing problems 2.Internal financial management Inadequate working capital Cash-flow problems Other or general financial management problems 3.Sales/marketing Low sales Dependence on one or few clients/customers Marketing or distribution channels Promotion/public relations/advertising Other or general marketing problems 4.Product development Developing products/services Other or general product development problems 5.Production/operations management Establishing or maintaining quality control Raw materials/resources/supplies Other or general production/operations management problems 6.General management Lack of management experience Only one person/no time Managing/controlling growth Administrative problems Other or general management problems 7.Human resource management Recruitment/selection Turnover/retention Satisfaction/morale Employee development Other or general human resource management problems 8.Economic environment Poor economy/recession Other or general economic environment problems 9.Regulatory environment Insurance
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–16 Figure 9.2 Internal and External Problems Experienced by Entrepreneurs Source: H. Robert Dodge, Sam Fullerton, and John E. Robbins, “Stage of Organization Life Cycle and Competition as Mediators of Problem Perception for Small Businesses,” Strategic Management Journal 15 (1994): 129. Reprinted by permission of John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–17 Table 9.3 Determinants of New-Venture Failures EntrepreneurRankVenture CapitalistRank I—Lack of management skill1 1 I—Poor management strategy2 2 I—Lack of capitalization3 3 I—Lack of vision4E—Poor external market conditions4 I—Poor product design5 5 I—Key personnel incompetent6I—Poor product timing6 E = External factor I = Internal factor Source: Andrew L. Zacharakis, G. Dale Meyer, and Julio DeCastro, “Differing Perceptions of New Venture Failure: A Matched Exploratory Study of Venture Capitalists and Entrepreneurs,” Journal of Small Business Management (July 1999): 8.
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–18 New Venture Failure Prediction Model 1. Role of profitability and cash flows 2. Role of debt 3. Combination of both 4. Role of initial size 5. Role of velocity of capital 6. Role of control
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–19 Table 9.4 The Failure Process of a Newly Founded Firm 1.Extremely high indebtedness (poor static solidity) and small size 2.Too slow velocity of capital, too fast growth, too poor profitability (as compared to the budget), or some combination of these 3.Unexpected lack of revenue financing (poor dynamic liquidity) 4.Poor static liquidity and debt service ability (dynamic solidity) Source: Erkki K. Laitinen, “Prediction of Failure of a Newly Founded Firm,” Journal of Business Venturing (July 1992): 326–328. Reprinted with permission.
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–20 The Evaluation Process Profile Analysis Profile Analysis Involves identifying and investigating the financial, marketing, organizational, and human resource variables that influence the business’s potential before the new idea is put into practice. The Feasibility Criteria Approach The Feasibility Criteria Approach Involves the use of a criteria selection list from which entrepreneurs can gain insights into the viability of their venture. Comprehensive Feasibility Approach Comprehensive Feasibility Approach Incorporates external factors in addition to those included in the criteria questions.
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–21 Feasibility Criteria Approach Assessing the viability of a venture: Assessing the viability of a venture: Is it proprietary? Are the initial production costs realistic? Are the initial marketing costs realistic? Does the product have potential for very high margins? Is the time required to get to market and to reach the break-even point realistic? Is the potential market large? Is the product the first of a growing family? Does an initial customer exist? Are the development costs and calendar times realistic? Is this a growing industry? Can the product and the need for it be understood by the financial community?
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–22 Figure 9.3 Key Areas for Assessing the Feasibility of a New Venture
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–23 Table 9.5 Specific Activities of Feasibility Analyses Technical Feasibility Analysis Market Feasibility Analysis Financial Feasibility Analysis Organizational Capabilities Analysis Competitive Analysis Crucial technical specifications Design Durability Reliability Product safety Standardization Engineering requirements Machines Tools Instruments Work flow Product development Blueprints Models Prototypes Product testing Lab testing Field testing Plant location Desirable characteristics of plant site (proximity to suppliers, customers), environmental regulations Market potential Identification of potential customers and their dominant characteristics (e.g., age, income level, buying habits) Potential market share (as affected by competitive situation) Potential sales volume Sales price projections Market testing Selection of test Actual market test Analysis of market Marketing planning issues Preferred channels of distribution, impact of promotional efforts, required distribution points (warehouses), packaging considerations, price differentiation Required financial resources Fixed assets Current assets Necessary working capital Available financial resources Required borrowing Potential sources for funds Costs of borrowing Repayment conditions Operation cost analysis Fixed costs Variable costs Projected profitability Personnel requirements Required skill levels and other personal characteristics of potential employees Managerial requirements Determination of individual responsibilities Determination of required organizational relationships Potential organizational development Competitive analysis Existing competitors Size, financial resources, market entrenchment Potential reaction of competitors to newcomer by means of price cutting, aggressive advertising, introduction of new products, and other actions Source: Hans Schollhammer and Arthur H. Kuriloff, Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1979): 56. Copyright © 1979 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Reprinted by permission of John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
© 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.9–24 Key Terms and Concepts comprehensive feasibility approach comprehensive feasibility approach critical factors critical factors customer availability customer availability external problems external problems failure prediction model failure prediction model feasibility criteria approach feasibility criteria approach growth of sales growth of sales growth stage growth stage high-growth venture high-growth venture internal problems internal problems lifestyle venture lifestyle venture marketability marketability product availability product availability small profitable venture small profitable venture start-up problems start-up problems technical feasibility technical feasibility uniqueness uniqueness
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