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Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien Former GEA Director

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1 Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien Former GEA Director
Overview Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien Former GEA Director

2 Global Energy Assessment
Toward a Sustainable Future Nebojsa Nakicenovic Director 2

3 GEA Launch RIO+20, 19 June 2012 Kandeh Yumkella, DG UNIDO, referred to the GEA report as the “energy bible”. In order of the chapters Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto

4 GEA, 2012

5 Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers > 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years # of Reviewer comments: >6000 # of Language Editors:15 # of Copy Editors:15 # of Figures: ~ 650 # of Tables: ~ 380 # of References: >7000 # of Pages (Published): ~1864 Pages Single volume of 5.5 kg

6 External Funding Partners
Austrian Development Agency (ADA) Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) and Swedish Energy Agency Climate Works Foundation United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) First Solar Inc. United Nations Foundation (UNF) Global Environment Facility (GEF) through UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Petrobras US Department of Energy (DOE) through Global Environment and Technology Foundation Research Council of Norway Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) World Bank/ESMAP World Energy Council (WEC) Additional in-kind funding from institutes which hosted GEA events (GETF, NREL, UNDP, UN Foundation) 6

7 GEA Council Ged Davis – GEA Co-President
José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc. Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF) Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF) Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC) Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) Jamal Saghir, World Bank John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science (ICSU) Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China

8 GEA Council Ged Davis – GEA Co-President
José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc. Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF) Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF) Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC) Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) Jamal Saghir, World Bank John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science (ICSU) Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China

9 GEA Executive Committee
Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development) Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development) He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment) Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment) Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment) Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health) Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security) Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy) Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials) Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry) Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport) Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings) Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy) Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy) Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy) Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage) Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy) Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems) Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems) Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems) Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development) Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation) Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development) Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development) Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy) Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy) Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments) Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access) Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development) In order of the chapters

10 GEA Executive Committee
Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development) Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development) He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment) Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment) Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment) Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health) Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security) Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy) Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials) Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry) Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport) Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings) Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy) Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy) Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy) Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage) Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy) Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems) Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems) Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems) Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development) Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation) Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development) Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development) Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy) Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy) Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments) Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access) Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development) In order of the chapters

11 www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Remembrance: Abeeku Brew-Hammond
Co-CLA of Chapter 19 Energy Access for Development

12

13 Authors and Editors of GEA (1 of 2)
Jean Acquatella Zoë Chafe Sabine Fuss Kejun Jiang Adeola Adenikinju Aleh Cherp Luc Gagnon Eberhard Jochem Lawrence Agbemabiese Helena Chum Kelly Gallagher Thomas B. Johansson Olivia Agbenyega Leon Clarke Hu Gao Francis X. Johnson Astrid Agostini Suani T. Coelho Ibrahim Abdel Gelil Arthur Johnson Francisco Aguayo Yu Cong Dolf Gielen Ian Johnson Roberto F. Aguilera Peter Cook Asmerom Gilau Suzana Kahn Ribeiro Gilbert Ahamer Robert Corell Stephen Gitonga Mikiko Kainuma John Ahearne Felix Creutzig Robert Goldston Daniel Kammen Hugo Altomonte Daniel Curtis Andreas Goldthau Shinji Kaneko Markus Amann Touria Dafrallah Peter Graham Stephen Karekezi Laura Diaz Anadon Ogunlade Davidson Arnulf Grubler Anders Karlqvist Per Dannemand Andersen John Davison Helmut Haberl Tadahiro Katsuta Cristina L. Archer Felix Dayo Richard Haeuber James E. Keirstead Doug Arent Heleen de Coninck Keisuke Hanaki Francis Kemausuor Robert Ayres Luiz Alberto de Melo Brettas Maureen Hand René Kemp Christian Azar Adilson de Oliveira Danny Harvey Ruud Kempener Ines Azevedo Gabriel de Scheemaker Marianne Haug John Kimani Xuemei Bai Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr. Kebin HE Osamu Kimura Kalpana Balakrishnan Frank Dentener Marko Hekkert Patrick Kinney Rangan Banerjee Shobhakar Dhakal Fancisco Hernandez Bernadette Kiss Douglas F. Barnes Anatoli Diakov Sergio Tirado Herrero Tord Kjellstrom Jennie Barron Ming DING Edgar Hertwich Zbigniew Klimont Igor Bashmakov Michael Doherty Conrado Heruela Shigeki Kobayashi Timothy Baynes Anne-Maree Dowd Kevin Hicks Peter Kolp Morgan Bazilian Carolina Dubeux Frank von Hippel Christian Kornevall Kamel Bennaceur Maurice B. Dusseault Monique Hoogwijk Reza Kowsari Sally M. Benson Lisa Emberson Richard Hosier Diana Kraft Ruggero Bertani Karl-Heinz Erb Larry Hughes Fridolin Krausmann S.C. Bhattacharya Nick Eyre Alison Hughes Wolfram Krewitt† Dan Bilello Andre Faaij Jane Hupe Volker Krey Gunilla Björklund Ian Fairlie Toshiaki Ichinose Sivanappan Kumar Brenda Boardman Karim Farhat Morna Isaac Rattan Lal Daniel H. Bouille Sara Feresu Mark Jaccard Hans Larsen Grant Boyle Maria Josefina Figueroa Staffan Jacobsson Eric Larson Sylvia Breukers Carolyn Fischer Jill Jäger Rik Leemans Abeeku Brew-Hammond Brian Fisher Martin Jakob Sylvie Lemmet Ian Bryden David J. Fisk Kathryn Janda Philippe Lempp Thomas Buettner Theo H. Fleisch Gilberto Jannuzzi Manfred Lenzen Stan Bull Tira Foran Jaap Jansen Zheng LI Matthew Bunn Roger Fouquet Jessica Jewell Colin Butler Junichi Fujino Yi Jiang 13

14 Authors and Editors of GEA (2 of 2)
Vladimir Likhachev Gregory Nemet Gerd Sammer Neha Umarji Guangjian LIU George L. Nicolaides Jayant Sathaye Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Jeff Logan Hans Nilsson David Satterthwaite Eric Usher Oswaldo Lucon Aleksandra Novikova Deger Saygin Sergey Vakulenko John Lund Victoria Novikova Jules Schers Harry Vallack Nora Lustig Anastasia O’Rourke Christoph Schilling Rita van Dingenen Jordan Macknick Virginia Sonntag O'Brien Jürgen Schmid Denis van Es Mili Majumdar Michael Ohadi Mycle Schneider Bas van Ruijven François Maréchal Marina Olshanskaya Sabine Schnittger Wilfried van Sark Omar Masera Shonali Pachauri Robert N. Schock Oscar van Vliet Denise L. Mauzerall Saptarshi Pal Niels B. Schulz Detlef P. van Vuuren Peter McCabe Shamik Pal Seongwon Seo Geert Verbong David McCollum Debajit Palit Ali Shafiei Preeti Verma Charles McCombie Riddhi Panse Nilay Shah David Victor Susan McDade Mahesh Patankar Ram M. Shrestha Eugene Visagie Aimee T. McKane Anand Patwardhan Priyadarshi R. Shukla Seppo Vuori Thomas McKone Ksenia Petrichenko Dale Simbeck Horst Wagner James E. McMahon Hector Pistonesi Ralph Sims Rahul Walawalkar Anthony McMichael Christoph Plutzar Wim Sinke Njeri Wamukonya† Michael McNeil Gisela Prasad Kirk R. Smith Jim Watson Mark Mehos Ndola Prata Aaron Smith Sandy Webb Tim Merrigan Lynn Price Adrian Smith Jan Weinzettel Jacqui Meyers Pallav Purohit Ricardo Soares de Oliveira Helga Weisz Alan Miller Krishnan S. Rajan Youba Sokona John Weyant Sevastianos Mirasgedis M.V. Ramana Weiwei Song John T. Wilbanks Catherine Mitchell Andrea Ramirez Benjamin Sovacool Paul Wilkinson Vijay Modi Saumya Ranjan Ashutosh Srivastava Robert H. Williams Joachim Monkelbaan Anand Rao Leena Srivastava Charlie Wilson José Roberto Moreira Shilpa Rao Kjartan Steen-Olsen Rosemary Wolson Gragner Morgan Amitav Rath Julia Steinberger Ernst Worrell Siwa Msangi Rob Raven Lars Strupeit Iain Wright Adrian Muller Xiangkun Ren Terry Surles Vladimir Yakushev Mohan Munasinghe Keywan Riahi Tatsujiro Suzuki Kenji Yamaji Luis Mundaca Kamal Rijal Alice Sverdlik Kurt Yeager Shuzo Murakami Johan Rockström Minoru Takada Suyuan Yu Iyngararasan Mylvakanam Hans-Holger Rogner Richard Taylor Hisham Zerriffi Lynn Mytelka Mathis L. Rogner Theodore Thrasher Qiang Zhang Yu Nagai Marc A. Rosen Robert Thresher Xiliang Zhang Koji Nagano Carolina Rossini Julie Tran Li Zhou Hitomi Nakanishi Joyashree Roy Upendra Tripathy Ji Zou Nebojsa Nakicenovic Lau Saili Craig Turchi Lena Neij Constantine Samaras Wim Turkenburg

15 Reviewers of GEA Dilip Ahuja John Bøgild Hansen Gregg Marland
Karen Seto Anas Alhajji Nikos Hatziargyriou Ajay Mathur Evgeny Shvarts Maria Argiri Marianne Haug Helio Mattar Toufiq Siddiqi Vicki Arroyo Peter Haugan Doug McKay Jim Skea Alan Atkisson Detlev Heinemann James Meadowcroft Ruud Smits Patil Balachandra Peter Hennicke Tatyana Mitrova Robert Socolow Fritz Barthel Vera Höfele Arild Moe Luc Soete David F. Batten Adonai Herrera Martinez Mark R. Montgomery Allen Solomon Frans Berkhout Mark Hopkins Shantanu Mukherjee Mohammad Soltanieh Christoph Bertram Luiz Horta Noqueira Peter Mulder Laszlo Somlyody Preety Bhandari Chuck Howard Svend Munkejord Ashok Sreenivas Kornelis Blok Ernst Huenges Rogier Nijssen Will Steffen Valentina Bosetti Steven Hunt Lars Nilsson Andrew Stirling Richard A. Bradley Hillard Huntington Dong-Woon Noh Harry C. Stokes Elizabeth Cecelski Antonina Ivanova Boncheva Tor Nygaard Gary Stuggins Akanksha Chaurey Roderick Jackson Joan Ogden Salvador Suárez García Francisco de la Chesnaye Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau Dennis S. Ojima Yoshiharu Tachibana Nikhil Desai Michael Jefferson Debo Oladosu Anil Terway Hadi Dowlatabadi Catrinus Jepma Ralph P. Overend Jefferson Tester Olivier Dubois Hongguang Jin Tony Owen Thomas Theison Gautam S. Dutt Veena Joshi Karen Palmer Stefan Thomas Geoff Dutton James R. Katzer Martin K. Patel Victoria Thoresen James A. Edmonds Gregory Keoleian Rashmi S. Patil Dennis Tirpak Wolfgang Eichhammer Emek Barış Kepenek Walt Patterson Michael Toman Per Eikeland Ilkka Keppo Martin Pehnt David Trimm† Paul Epstein† Anund Killingtveit Joachim Peinke Anthony Turhollow Marianne Fay Jong-Inn Kim Per F. Peterson Hal Turton Peter Fraenkel Jonathan G. Koomey Cédric Philibert Julio Usaola Garcia Antony Froggatt Sivanappan Kumar Gonzalo Piernavieja Izquierdo Bob van der Zwaan Bill Fulkerson Balesh Kumar Robert Pindyck Thyjagarajan Velumail Donald Gautier Vello Kuuskraa Luiz Pinguelli Rosa Ivan Vera Bradford Gentry Anthony Land Lawrence Pitt Fernando Viana John Gibbons Melissa Lapsa Maximilian Posch Nadejda M. Victor Michael W. Golay Louis Lebel Graham Pugh Spyros Voutsinas Donna L. Goodman Stefan Lechtenböhmer Tinus Pulles Steve Wiel Charles Goodman Nicolas Lefèvre-Marton Burton Richter Thomas J. Wilbanks Paul Graham Vladimir Likhachev Michael Rock Robert Williams David L. Greene David Lobell Richard Alexander Roehrl Harald Winkler Don Grether Alexander Luedi Adam Rose Anny Wong Andrei Gritsevskyii Nestor Luna Gonzalez Mark Rosenberg Francis D. Yamba Waclaw Gudowski Landis MacKellar Teodoro Sanchez Xianli Zhu Eshita Gupta Alexei A. Makarov Ajit Sapre Reviewer 49 Pablo Gutman Maxwell Mapako Guido Schmidt-Traub Reviewer 93 Reviewer 118 Javier Hanna Anil Markandya Jan Sendzimir Reviewer 172

16 Four Clusters Cluster I Characterized nature and magnitude of the major challenges of our century – e.g. poverty eradication, climate change, health, air pollution, energy security. Cluster II Reviewed existing and future resources, technology options and energy end use in sectors Cluster III Integrated elements of Cluster II into systems and contrasted them to challenges in Cluster I Using Scenarios, numerical models and storylines, explored integrated solutions Cluster IV Assessed policy options, and specifically identified policy packages that could meet needs linked to scenarios Message: current energy systems require major transformation through integrated and cross-sectoral approaches involving multiple stakeholders

17 The Global Energy Challenge
Major transformations are required if future energy systems are to be affordable, safe, secure, and environmentally sound. There is an urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive strategy to help resolve the following challenges: Providing clean and affordable energy services for all; Increasing energy security for all nations, regions, and communities; Reducing GHG emissions to limit global warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels; Reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution from fuel combustion and its impacts on human health; and Reducing the adverse effects and ancillary risks. 17

18 The Key Energy Challenges
Climate Change Energy Security The Energy Program aims to identify viable policy mechanisms, leverages, and technology portfolios that would permit the transformation of the present energy system to a more sustainable one. The following list of key challenges in the transition toward a sustainable energy future are explicitly analyzed in the research of the Energy Program: Providing universal access to affordable clean cooking and electricity for the poor Improving energy security throughout the World Limiting air pollution and health damages from energy use Limiting climate change Energy Access Air Pollution Health Impacts 18

19 Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
2030 Energy Goal Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

20 Transforming the global energy systems to address urgent challenges of the 21st century

21 Energy cuts across sustainable development issues Pursuing three objectives simultaneously bring about immense benefits – Opportunity for UN to Test New Models of Cooperation Ensuring universal Energy Access Doubling the share of Renewable Energy Achieving the three objectives of Sustainable Energy for All… Doubling the rate of improvement in Energy Efficiency … makes many development goals possible ....it is not just about power stations, transformers and distribution lines (though critical and important) Improved health Improved agricultural productivity Empowerment of women Business and employment creation Economic development and equity Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals Lighting / appliances that require less power Fossil fuel resources used more effectively Reduced energy costs for consumers Redistribution of electricity that now is wasted or lost More reliable electricity systems Affordable energy even where grid does not reach New opportunities for small entrepreneurs Decreased variability in energy costs Energy security and reduced import bills Reduced environmental impacts 21 21

22 Country Action Current Status
77 countries have now formally joined – more in pipeline - 5 in RBEC region 40 Rapid Assessment studies done or in process – basis for next step – action plan preparation Several donors, international institutions and businesses already committed Implementation Phase to begin in 2013 – now - for a long term commitment

23 KF6 Universal Access by 2030 Universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking fuels and stoves can be achieved by 2030; this will require innovative institutions, national and local enabling mechanisms, and targeted policies, including appropriate subsidies and financing. Enhancing access among poor people, especially poor women, is essential for increasing standards of living; Universal access to clean cooking technologies will substantially improve health, prevent millions of premature deaths, and lower household and ambient air pollution levels, as well as the emissions of climate-altering substances. 23

24 Electrification Source: Pachauri et al, 2012 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
SE4All 80% South Africa Baseline 60% USA Brazil Percentage of rural population with electricity access Percentage of total population with electricity access Mexico SE4All 40% China India USA Rural 20% South Asia Baseline Sub-Saharan Africa 0% 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Source: Pachauri et al, 2012 24

25 Cumulative Emissions for 2oC Stabilzaiton
~2450 GtCO2 Unconventional Gas ~4,550 GtCO2 Biomass ~1,600–1,650 GtCO2 Unconv. Oil ~1,100–1,500 GtCO2 N. Gas ~340–500 GtCO2 Oil ~660–1,000 GtCO2 Coal ~ 30,000 GtCO2 ~850 GtCO2 Cumulative Emissions for 2oC Stabilzaiton Gas Hydrates ~6,600 – 57,000 GtCO2 Gas Hydrates ~100,000 GtCO2 Added cumulative CO2 emissions (History ) and Scenarios (2010 – 2050) Historcial Emissions ~1900 GtCO2 Present Atmosphere ~3060 GtCO2 Preidustrial Atmosphere ~2000 GtCO2 14 25

26 Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density
WEU: 21% of demand below renewable density threshold EEU: 34% of demand below renewable density threshold 26

27 KF1 Transformation The GEA analysis demonstrates that a sustainable future requires a transformation from today’s energy systems to those with: Radical improvements in energy efficiency, especially in end use Greater shares of renewable energies and advanced energy systems with carbon capture and storage The analysis ascertained that there are many ways to transform energy systems and many energy portfolio options. Large, early, and sustained investments, combined with supporting policies, are needed to implement and finance change. 27

28 Final Energy Transformations
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Final energy share (percent%) Grids (gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen) Liquids (oil products, biofuels , other liquids) Solids (coal, biomass) On - site generation GEA S E World supply of final energy by form. Overlapping shaded areas indicate variations across the three GEA scenarios. (Riahi, 2010) 28

29 Kommerzielle Luftfahrt
Global Primary Energy 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 1000 800 Mikrochip Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Fernseher Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Elektrischer Motor Dampf-maschine Nuklear- energie EJ 600 Renewables Nuclear 400 Gas Oil 200 Coal Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 29 29

30 Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Source: Riahi et al, 2012
1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Einsparungen Andere E ~40% improvement by 2030 1000 Nuklear Gas Öl ~55% renewables by 2030 Kohle 800 Biomasse Nuclear phase-out (policy) EJ 600 Oil phase-out (necessary) Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas 400 200 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: Riahi et al, 2012 30

31 lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN 1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~40% improvement by 2030 1000 ~30% renewables by 2030 800 Limited Intermittent REN EJ 600 Oil phase-out (necessary) Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas WEU + EEU – 31% (other RE + bio); 26% other RE, 5.5 % biomass 400 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO2 200 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: Riahi et al, 2012 31

32 Global Primary Energy Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Riahi et al, 2012
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 EJ 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 EJ 20 40 60 80 100 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas WEU + EEU – 31% (other RE + bio); 26% other RE, 5.5 % biomass ~50% renewables by 2030 Source: Riahi et al, 2012 32

33 Global Primary Energy China Source: Riahi et al, 2012 1850 1900 1950
2000 2050 EJ 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 EJ 50 100 150 200 250 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas WEU + EEU – 31% (other RE + bio); 26% other RE, 5.5 % biomass ~50% efficiency and decline of coal by 2030 Source: Riahi et al, 2012 33

34 Global Primary Energy North America 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 200 400
EJ 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 EJ 50 100 150 200 250 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas ~40% efficiency 2030 34

35 KF2 Immediate Action An effective transformation requires immediate action to avoid lock-in of invested capital into energy systems and associated infrastructure that is not compatible with sustainability goals Long infrastructure lifetimes mean that it takes decades to change energy systems For example, by 2050 almost three-quarters of the world population is projected to live in cities offering a major opportunity for transforming energy systems 35

36 Policy Integration at the Urban Scale
Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model combining spatially explicit models of urban form, density, and energy infrastructures, with energy systems optimization. Source: Grubler et al, 2012

37 Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012 37

38 KF10 Stable Investment Regimes
A portfolio of policies to enable rapid transformation of energy systems must provide the effective incentive structures and strong signals for the deployment at scale of energy-efficient technologies and systems that contribute to the sustainable development. The GEA pathways indicate that global investments in combined energy efficiency and supply will need to increase to between US$1.7–2.2 trillion per year compared to present levels of about US$1.3 trillion per year; Current research and development efforts in these areas are grossly inadequate compared with the future potentials and needs. 38

39 Investitionen der Entwicklungspfade
Annual Energy Investments Innovation RD&D [billion US$2005] Markets Formation Present Future 2010 Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 Access < 1 ~ 9 40-60 Total > 50 < 150 1250 1750–2200 Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011

40 KF8 Multiple Benefits Combinations of resources, technologies, and polices that can simultaneously meet global sustainability goals also generate substantial and tangible near-term local and national economic, environmental, and social development benefits. These include increased employment options, new business opportunities, productivity gains, improved social welfare and decreased poverty, more resilient infrastructure, and improved energy security; These benefits make the required energy transformations attractive from multiple policy perspectives and at multiple levels of governance. 40

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