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Overview Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien Former GEA Director.

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Presentation on theme: "Overview Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien Former GEA Director."— Presentation transcript:

1 Overview Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien Former GEA Director

2 2012 #2 Nakicenovic Global Energy Assessment Toward a Sustainable Future Nebojsa Nakicenovic Director www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

3 2013 #3Nakicenovic GEA Launch RIO+20, 19 June 2012 Kandeh Yumkella, DG UNIDO, referred to the GEA report as the “energy bible”. Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto

4 2013 #4Nakicenovic www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org GEA, 2012

5 2013 #5Nakicenovic www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org ●Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers > 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years ●# of Reviewer comments: >6000 ●# of Language Editors:15 ●# of Copy Editors:15 ●# of Figures: ~ 650 ●# of Tables: ~ 380 ●# of References: >7000 ●# of Pages (Published): ~1864 Pages ●Single volume of 5.5 kg

6 2013 #6Nakicenovic External Funding Partners ●Austrian Development Agency (ADA) ●Climate Works Foundation ●Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH ●First Solar Inc. ●Global Environment Facility (GEF) through UNIDO ●Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory ●Petrobras ●Research Council of Norway ●Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) ●Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) and Swedish Energy Agency ●United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) ●United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) ●United Nations Foundation (UNF) ●United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) ●US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) ●US Department of Energy (DOE) through Global Environment and Technology Foundation ●World Bank/ESMAP ●World Energy Council (WEC)

7 2013 #7Nakicenovic GEA Council ●Ged Davis – GEA Co-President ●José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo ●Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc. ●Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ●Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF) ●Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory ●Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF) ●Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China ●Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC) ●Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria ●Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ●Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency ●Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) ●Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) ●Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras ●Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) ●Jamal Saghir, World Bank ●John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science (ICSU) ●Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) ●Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) ●Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) ●Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament ●Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia ●Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament ●Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation ●Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization ●Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China

8 2013 #8Nakicenovic GEA Council ●Ged Davis – GEA Co-President ●José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo ●Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc. ●Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ●Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF) ●Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory ●Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF) ●Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China ●Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC) ●Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria ●Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ●Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency ●Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) ●Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) ●Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras ●Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) ●Jamal Saghir, World Bank ●John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science (ICSU) ●Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) ●Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) ●Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) ●Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament ●Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia ●Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament ●Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation ●Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization ●Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China

9 2013 #9Nakicenovic GEA Executive Committee ●Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden ●Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India ●Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria ●Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia ●Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development) ●Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development) ●He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment) ●Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment) ●Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment) ●Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health) ●Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security) ●Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy) ●Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials) ●Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry) ●Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport) ●Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings) ●Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy) ●Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy) ●Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy) ●Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage) ●Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy) ●Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems) ●Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems) ●Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems) ●Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development) ●Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation) ●Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development) ●Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development) ●Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy) ●Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy) ●Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments) ●Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access) ●Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)

10 2013 #10Nakicenovic GEA Executive Committee ●Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden ●Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India ●Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria ●Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia ●Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development) ●Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development) ●He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment) ●Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment) ●Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment) ●Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health) ●Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security) ●Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy) ●Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials) ●Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry) ●Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport) ●Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings) ●Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy) ●Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy) ●Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy) ●Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage) ●Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy) ●Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems) ●Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems) ●Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems) ●Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development) ●Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation) ●Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development) ●Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development) ●Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy) ●Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy) ●Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments) ●Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access) ●Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)

11 2013 #11Nakicenovic http://www.christianmemorials.com/tributes/ Abeeku-Hammond Remembrance: Abeeku Brew-Hammond Co-CLA of Chapter 19 Energy Access for Development www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

12 2013 #12Nakicenovic www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

13 2013 #13Nakicenovic Authors and Editors of GEA (1 of 2) Jean Acquatella Adeola Adenikinju Lawrence Agbemabiese Olivia Agbenyega Astrid Agostini Francisco Aguayo Roberto F. Aguilera Gilbert Ahamer John Ahearne Hugo Altomonte Markus Amann Laura Diaz Anadon Per Dannemand Andersen Cristina L. Archer Doug Arent Robert Ayres Christian Azar Ines Azevedo Xuemei Bai Kalpana Balakrishnan Rangan Banerjee Douglas F. Barnes Jennie Barron Igor Bashmakov Timothy Baynes Morgan Bazilian Kamel Bennaceur Sally M. Benson Ruggero Bertani S.C. Bhattacharya Dan Bilello Gunilla Björklund Brenda Boardman Daniel H. Bouille Grant Boyle Sylvia Breukers Abeeku Brew-Hammond Ian Bryden Thomas Buettner Stan Bull Matthew Bunn Colin Butler Zoë Chafe Aleh Cherp Helena Chum Leon Clarke Suani T. Coelho Yu Cong Peter Cook Robert Corell Felix Creutzig Daniel Curtis Touria Dafrallah Ogunlade Davidson John Davison Felix Dayo Heleen de Coninck Luiz Alberto de Melo Brettas Adilson de Oliveira Gabriel de Scheemaker Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr. Frank Dentener Shobhakar Dhakal Anatoli Diakov Ming DING Michael Doherty Anne-Maree Dowd Carolina Dubeux Maurice B. Dusseault Lisa Emberson Karl-Heinz Erb Nick Eyre Andre Faaij Ian Fairlie Karim Farhat Sara Feresu Maria Josefina Figueroa Carolyn Fischer Brian Fisher David J. Fisk Theo H. Fleisch Tira Foran Roger Fouquet Junichi Fujino Sabine Fuss Luc Gagnon Kelly Gallagher Hu Gao Ibrahim Abdel Gelil Dolf Gielen Asmerom Gilau Stephen Gitonga Robert Goldston Andreas Goldthau Peter Graham Arnulf Grubler Helmut Haberl Richard Haeuber Keisuke Hanaki Maureen Hand Danny Harvey Marianne Haug Kebin HE Marko Hekkert Fancisco Hernandez Sergio Tirado Herrero Edgar Hertwich Conrado Heruela Kevin Hicks Frank von Hippel Monique Hoogwijk Richard Hosier Larry Hughes Alison Hughes Jane Hupe Toshiaki Ichinose Morna Isaac Mark Jaccard Staffan Jacobsson Jill Jäger Martin Jakob Kathryn Janda Gilberto Jannuzzi Jaap Jansen Jessica Jewell Yi Jiang Kejun Jiang Eberhard Jochem Thomas B. Johansson Francis X. Johnson Arthur Johnson Ian Johnson Suzana Kahn Ribeiro Mikiko Kainuma Daniel Kammen Shinji Kaneko Stephen Karekezi Anders Karlqvist Tadahiro Katsuta James E. Keirstead Francis Kemausuor René Kemp Ruud Kempener John Kimani Osamu Kimura Patrick Kinney Bernadette Kiss Tord Kjellstrom Zbigniew Klimont Shigeki Kobayashi Peter Kolp Christian Kornevall Reza Kowsari Diana Kraft Fridolin Krausmann Wolfram Krewitt† Volker Krey Sivanappan Kumar Rattan Lal Hans Larsen Eric Larson Rik Leemans Sylvie Lemmet Philippe Lempp Manfred Lenzen Zheng LI

14 2013 #14Nakicenovic Vladimir Likhachev Guangjian LIU Jeff Logan Oswaldo Lucon John Lund Nora Lustig Jordan Macknick Mili Majumdar François Maréchal Omar Masera Denise L. Mauzerall Peter McCabe David McCollum Charles McCombie Susan McDade Aimee T. McKane Thomas McKone James E. McMahon Anthony McMichael Michael McNeil Mark Mehos Tim Merrigan Jacqui Meyers Alan Miller Sevastianos Mirasgedis Catherine Mitchell Vijay Modi Joachim Monkelbaan José Roberto Moreira Gragner Morgan Siwa Msangi Adrian Muller Mohan Munasinghe Luis Mundaca Shuzo Murakami Iyngararasan Mylvakanam Lynn Mytelka Yu Nagai Koji Nagano Hitomi Nakanishi Nebojsa Nakicenovic Lena Neij Gregory Nemet George L. Nicolaides Hans Nilsson Aleksandra Novikova Victoria Novikova Anastasia O’Rourke Virginia Sonntag O'Brien Michael Ohadi Marina Olshanskaya Shonali Pachauri Saptarshi Pal Shamik Pal Debajit Palit Riddhi Panse Mahesh Patankar Anand Patwardhan Ksenia Petrichenko Hector Pistonesi Christoph Plutzar Gisela Prasad Ndola Prata Lynn Price Pallav Purohit Krishnan S. Rajan M.V. Ramana Andrea Ramirez Saumya Ranjan Anand Rao Shilpa Rao Amitav Rath Rob Raven Xiangkun Ren Keywan Riahi Kamal Rijal Johan Rockström Hans-Holger Rogner Mathis L. Rogner Marc A. Rosen Carolina Rossini Joyashree Roy Lau Saili Constantine Samaras Gerd Sammer Jayant Sathaye David Satterthwaite Deger Saygin Jules Schers Christoph Schilling Jürgen Schmid Mycle Schneider Sabine Schnittger Robert N. Schock Niels B. Schulz Seongwon Seo Ali Shafiei Nilay Shah Ram M. Shrestha Priyadarshi R. Shukla Dale Simbeck Ralph Sims Wim Sinke Kirk R. Smith Aaron Smith Adrian Smith Ricardo Soares de Oliveira Youba Sokona Weiwei Song Benjamin Sovacool Ashutosh Srivastava Leena Srivastava Kjartan Steen-Olsen Julia Steinberger Lars Strupeit Terry Surles Tatsujiro Suzuki Alice Sverdlik Minoru Takada Richard Taylor Theodore Thrasher Robert Thresher Julie Tran Upendra Tripathy Craig Turchi Wim Turkenburg Neha Umarji Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Eric Usher Sergey Vakulenko Harry Vallack Rita van Dingenen Denis van Es Bas van Ruijven Wilfried van Sark Oscar van Vliet Detlef P. van Vuuren Geert Verbong Preeti Verma David Victor Eugene Visagie Seppo Vuori Horst Wagner Rahul Walawalkar Njeri Wamukonya† Jim Watson Sandy Webb Jan Weinzettel Helga Weisz John Weyant John T. Wilbanks Paul Wilkinson Robert H. Williams Charlie Wilson Rosemary Wolson Ernst Worrell Iain Wright Vladimir Yakushev Kenji Yamaji Kurt Yeager Suyuan Yu Hisham Zerriffi Qiang Zhang Xiliang Zhang Li Zhou Ji Zou Authors and Editors of GEA (2 of 2)

15 2013 #15Nakicenovic Dilip Ahuja Anas Alhajji Maria Argiri Vicki Arroyo Alan Atkisson Patil Balachandra Fritz Barthel David F. Batten Frans Berkhout Christoph Bertram Preety Bhandari Kornelis Blok Valentina Bosetti Richard A. Bradley Elizabeth Cecelski Akanksha Chaurey Francisco de la Chesnaye Nikhil Desai Hadi Dowlatabadi Olivier Dubois Gautam S. Dutt Geoff Dutton James A. Edmonds Wolfgang Eichhammer Per Eikeland Paul Epstein† Marianne Fay Peter Fraenkel Antony Froggatt Bill Fulkerson Donald Gautier Bradford Gentry John Gibbons Michael W. Golay Donna L. Goodman Charles Goodman Paul Graham David L. Greene Don Grether Andrei Gritsevskyii Waclaw Gudowski Eshita Gupta Pablo Gutman Javier Hanna John Bøgild Hansen Nikos Hatziargyriou Marianne Haug Peter Haugan Detlev Heinemann Peter Hennicke Vera Höfele Adonai Herrera Martinez Mark Hopkins Luiz Horta Noqueira Chuck Howard Ernst Huenges Steven Hunt Hillard Huntington Antonina Ivanova Boncheva Roderick Jackson Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau Michael Jefferson Catrinus Jepma Hongguang Jin Veena Joshi James R. Katzer Gregory Keoleian Emek Barış Kepenek Ilkka Keppo Anund Killingtveit Jong-Inn Kim Jonathan G. Koomey Sivanappan Kumar Balesh Kumar Vello Kuuskraa Anthony Land Melissa Lapsa Louis Lebel Stefan Lechtenböhmer Nicolas Lefèvre-Marton Vladimir Likhachev David Lobell Alexander Luedi Nestor Luna Gonzalez Landis MacKellar Alexei A. Makarov Maxwell Mapako Anil Markandya Gregg Marland Ajay Mathur Helio Mattar Doug McKay James Meadowcroft Tatyana Mitrova Arild Moe Mark R. Montgomery Shantanu Mukherjee Peter Mulder Svend Munkejord Rogier Nijssen Lars Nilsson Dong-Woon Noh Tor Nygaard Joan Ogden Dennis S. Ojima Debo Oladosu Ralph P. Overend Tony Owen Karen Palmer Martin K. Patel Rashmi S. Patil Walt Patterson Martin Pehnt Joachim Peinke Per F. Peterson Cédric Philibert Gonzalo Piernavieja Izquierdo Robert Pindyck Luiz Pinguelli Rosa Lawrence Pitt Maximilian Posch Graham Pugh Tinus Pulles Burton Richter Michael Rock Richard Alexander Roehrl Adam Rose Mark Rosenberg Teodoro Sanchez Ajit Sapre Guido Schmidt-Traub Jan Sendzimir Karen Seto Evgeny Shvarts Toufiq Siddiqi Jim Skea Ruud Smits Robert Socolow Luc Soete Allen Solomon Mohammad Soltanieh Laszlo Somlyody Ashok Sreenivas Will Steffen Andrew Stirling Harry C. Stokes Gary Stuggins Salvador Suárez García Yoshiharu Tachibana Anil Terway Jefferson Tester Thomas Theison Stefan Thomas Victoria Thoresen Dennis Tirpak Michael Toman David Trimm† Anthony Turhollow Hal Turton Julio Usaola Garcia Bob van der Zwaan Thyjagarajan Velumail Ivan Vera Fernando Viana Nadejda M. Victor Spyros Voutsinas Steve Wiel Thomas J. Wilbanks Robert Williams Harald Winkler Anny Wong Francis D. Yamba Xianli Zhu Reviewer 49 Reviewer 93 Reviewer 118 Reviewer 172 Reviewers of GEA

16 2013 #16Nakicenovic Four Clusters ●Cluster I Characterized nature and magnitude of the major challenges of our century – e.g. poverty eradication, climate change, health, air pollution, energy security. ●Cluster II Reviewed existing and future resources, technology options and energy end use in sectors ●Cluster III Integrated elements of Cluster II into systems and contrasted them to challenges in Cluster I Using Scenarios, numerical models and storylines, explored integrated solutions ●Cluster IV Assessed policy options, and specifically identified policy packages that could meet needs linked to scenarios Message: current energy systems require major transformation through integrated and cross-sectoral approaches involving multiple stakeholders

17 2013 #17Nakicenovic The Global Energy Challenge Major transformations are required if future energy systems are to be affordable, safe, secure, and environmentally sound. There is an urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive strategy to help resolve the following challenges:  Providing clean and affordable energy services for all;  Increasing energy security for all nations, regions, and communities;  Reducing GHG emissions to limit global warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels;  Reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution from fuel combustion and its impacts on human health; and  Reducing the adverse effects and ancillary risks.

18 #18 Energy Access Energy Security Climate Change The Key Energy Challenges Air Pollution Health Impacts

19 UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 2030 Energy Goal ●Universal Access to Modern Energy ●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement ●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

20 Transforming the global energy systems to address urgent challenges of the 21 st century

21 21 Energy cuts across sustainable development issues Pursuing three objectives simultaneously bring about immense benefits – Opportunity for UN to Test New Models of Cooperation Ensuring universal Energy Access Doubling the share of Renewable Energy Achieving the three objectives of Sustainable Energy for All… Doubling the rate of improvement in Energy Efficiency … makes many development goals possible....it is not just about power stations, transformers and distribution lines (though critical and important) ▪ Improved health Improved agricultural productivity ▪ Empowerment of women ▪ Business and employment creation ▪ Economic development and equity ▪ Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals ▪ Lighting / appliances that require less power ▪ Fossil fuel resources used more effectively ▪ Reduced energy costs for consumers ▪ Redistribution of electricity that now is wasted or lost ▪ More reliable electricity systems ▪ Affordable energy even where grid does not reach ▪ New opportunities for small entrepreneurs ▪ Decreased variability in energy costs ▪ Energy security and reduced import bills ▪ Reduced environmental impacts

22 Country Action Current Status 77 countries have now formally joined – more in pipeline - 5 in RBEC region 40 Rapid Assessment studies done or in process – basis for next step – action plan preparation Several donors, international institutions and businesses already committed Implementation Phase to begin in 2013 – now - for a long term commitment

23 2013 #23Nakicenovic KF6 Universal Access by 2030 Universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking fuels and stoves can be achieved by 2030; this will require innovative institutions, national and local enabling mechanisms, and targeted policies, including appropriate subsidies and financing.  Enhancing access among poor people, especially poor women, is essential for increasing standards of living;  Universal access to clean cooking technologies will substantially improve health, prevent millions of premature deaths, and lower household and ambient air pollution levels, as well as the emissions of climate- altering substances.

24 2013 #24Nakicenovic 19001920194019601980200020202040 Percentage of total population with electricity access 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico Brazil India South Africa China Baseline SE4All Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia USA Rural Percentage of rural population with electricity access Electrification Source: Pachauri et al, 2012

25 #25 14 Gas Hydrates ~6,600 – 57,000 GtCO 2 Present Atmosphere ~3060 GtCO 2 Historcial Emissions ~1900 GtCO 2 ~850 GtCO 2 Cumulative Emissions for 2 o C Stabilzaiton Preidustrial Atmosphere ~2000 GtCO 2 Coal ~ 30,000 GtCO 2 Biomass ~1,600– 1,650 GtCO 2 N. Gas ~340–500 GtCO 2 Oil ~660–1,000 GtCO 2. Unconv. Oil ~1,100–1,500 GtCO 2 Unconventional Gas ~4,550 GtCO 2 ~2450 GtCO 2 Gas Hydrates ~100,000 GtCO 2

26 #26 Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density 26 WEU: 21% of demand below renewable density threshold EEU: 34% of demand below renewable density threshold

27 #27 KF1 Transformation The GEA analysis demonstrates that a sustainable future requires a transformation from today’s energy systems to those with:  Radical improvements in energy efficiency, especially in end use  Greater shares of renewable energies and advanced energy systems with carbon capture and storage  The analysis ascertained that there are many ways to transform energy systems and many energy portfolio options.  Large, early, and sustained investments, combined with supporting policies, are needed to implement and finance change.

28 #28 Final Energy Transformations 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 200020052010202020302040205020602070208020902100 Final energy share (percent%) Grids (gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen) Liquids (oil products,biofuels, other liquids) Solids (coal, biomass) On-site generation GEA-S -E

29 #29 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Mikrochip Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Fernseher Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Elektrischer Motor Dampf- maschine Nuklear- nergie energie Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

30 #30 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~55% renewables by 2030 Oil phase-out (necessary) Nuclear phase-out (policy) Source: Riahi et al, 2012 Einsparungen Andere E Nuklear Gas Öl Kohle Biomasse Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal RenewablesNuclear Oil Gas

31 #31 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Oil phase-out (necessary) Limited Intermittent REN Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO 2 Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Biomass Coal RenewablesNuclear Oil Gas Source: Riahi et al, 2012

32 #32 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 200020102020203020402050 EJ 0 20 40 60 80 100 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~50% renewables by 2030 Global Primary Energy Sub-Saharan Africa Biomass Coal RenewablesNuclear Oil Gas Source: Riahi et al, 2012

33 #33 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012 Global Primary Energy China 200020102020203020402050 EJ 0 50 100 150 200 250 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~50% efficiency and decline of coal by 2030 Biomass Coal RenewablesNuclear Oil Gas

34 #34 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 200020102020203020402050 EJ 0 50 100 150 200 250 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Global Primary Energy North America ~40% efficiency 2030 Biomass Coal RenewablesNuclear Oil Gas

35 2013 #35Nakicenovic KF2 Immediate Action An effective transformation requires immediate action to avoid lock-in of invested capital into energy systems and associated infrastructure that is not compatible with sustainability goals  Long infrastructure lifetimes mean that it takes decades to change energy systems  For example, by 2050 almost three-quarters of the world population is projected to live in cities offering a major opportunity for transforming energy systems

36 2013 #36Nakicenovic Policy Integration at the Urban Scale Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model combining spatially explicit models of urban form, density, and energy infrastructures, with energy systems optimization. Source: Grubler et al, 2012

37 2013 #37Nakicenovic Supply Technologies Cost Trends Source: Grubler et al, 2012

38 2013 #38Nakicenovic KF10 Stable Investment Regimes A portfolio of policies to enable rapid transformation of energy systems must provide the effective incentive structures and strong signals for the deployment at scale of energy-efficient technologies and systems that contribute to the sustainable development.  The GEA pathways indicate that global investments in combined energy efficiency and supply will need to increase to between US$1.7–2.2 trillion per year compared to present levels of about US$1.3 trillion per year;  Current research and development efforts in these areas are grossly inadequate compared with the future potentials and needs.

39 2013 #39Nakicenovic Annual Energy Investments Innovation RD&D [billion US$2005] Markets Formation [billion US$2005] Present Investments [billion US$2005] Future Investments [billion US$2005] 2010 2010 - 2030 Efficiency>> 8~ 5300300-800 Renewables> 12~ 20200300-1000 Access < 1 ~ 9 40-60 Total> 50< 15012501750–2200 Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011 Investitionen der Entwicklungspfade

40 2013 #40Nakicenovic KF8 Multiple Benefits Combinations of resources, technologies, and polices that can simultaneously meet global sustainability goals also generate substantial and tangible near-term local and national economic, environmental, and social development benefits.  These include increased employment options, new business opportunities, productivity gains, improved social welfare and decreased poverty, more resilient infrastructure, and improved energy security;  These benefits make the required energy transformations attractive from multiple policy perspectives and at multiple levels of governance.

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