Presentation on theme: "Changing Role of IMF. If the Fund did not exist, country’s access to external finance would depend on international capital market’s perceptions of their."— Presentation transcript:
Changing Role of IMF
If the Fund did not exist, country’s access to external finance would depend on international capital market’s perceptions of their creditworthiness and proclivities of aid donours.
If international capital markets were efficient enough there were no problem. Efficiency: Allocated to where the real rate of return is the highest Are they? International Capital Flows are rather short- term and speculative => Contagious
Bretton Woods System Collapsed in 1973: BoP problems faced by developing countries Developing countries => New Clients After 1970s, industrial countries ceased drawing loans from IMF.
IMF Critics Political Arguments: “IMF became a development agency” NGOs Arguments: “an inadequate development agency” =>”Fifty years is Enough”
Bretton Woods Commission Set up by G-7 and recommended reshaping of the IMF. IMF has excessively focused on development and lost its track on international monetary issues.
IMF-supported policies did more harm than good to developing countries.
1970s & 1980s World recession Oil prices skyrocketed Petroleum Exporting Countries, through international banks, lended their money to Latin American countries Interest rates in U.S. & Europe inreased Tequila effect
Beginning of 1980s African and Asian low income countries were the users of IMF loans. However, by the end of 1980s, Debt crises in L.America radically changed the picture => L. America became the major user of IMF loans
Mexican Crisis (1994) High budget deficit left over from previous gov’t. 7% of GDP current account deficit Tesobonos: debt instrument in pesos but indexed to dollars Corruption Devaluation
Sturcture of IMF Loans In the early 1980s: Stand-by and EFF to L. America By 1987: Structural Adjustment Facility and Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility started to Low income countries SAF &ESAF accounted only a small fraction on the total fund lending SAF & ESAF had wider influence on monetary policy
IMF Conditionality When a country borrows from IMF, its government makes committments on economic and financial policies- a requirement known as conditionality. Conditionality is a way for the IMF to monitor that its loan is being used effectively in resolving the borrower's economic difficulties, so that the country will be able to repay promptly, and make the funds available to other members in need.
IMF Influence on Design of Economic Policy IMF has a high influence on the design of economic policy in countries that turn to it for financial assistance Powerful say on: Exchange rates Domestic Credit Creation Interest rates Fiscal Imbalances
ESAF Structural conditionality Covering policy areas of: Pricing Policy Trade Liberalisation Privatisation Structure of Taxes Gov’t. Expenditure Reform of Financial Sector
IMF Borrowers Heavy use of IMF credit by developing countries coincide with: (1) deteriorating BoP performance (2) falling creditworthiness IMF borrowers are developing countries trapped in BoP difficulties, either due to (1) excessive credit creation, or (2) deteriorating t.0.t
General Characteristics of Borrowers: They turn to IMF when all other financing resources are exhausted. High levels of external debt. Severe BoP imbalances. Depleted international reserves. Low investment Slow growth
Recidivist Tendency of Borrowers Developing countries often have had credit from the Fund for as many as 15 consecutive years, in some cases, for almost 30 years =>How about “temporary and revolving” character of IMF lending envisaged in Articles of Agreement? Temporary =? Non-permanant? Or short-term?
Countries that have borrowed form the Fund in the recent past are likely to borrow from it in the near future.