Presentation on theme: "Chapter 7 Interest Rate and"— Presentation transcript:
1 Chapter 7 Interest Rate and Bond ValuationHomework: 15, & 26
2 Lecture Organization Bonds and Bond Features Bond Valuation and Bond ReturnBond RatingsInterest Rate RiskReal and Nominal Interest Rates
3 Make regular coupon payments every period until the bond matures, and Bond FeaturesBond - evidence of debt issued by a corporation or a governmental body. A bond represents a loan made by investors to the issuer. The issuer promises to:Make regular coupon payments every period until the bond matures, andPay the face/par/maturity value of the bond when it matures.Default - since the above-mentioned promises are contractual obligations, an issuer who fails to keep them is subject to legal action on behalf of the lenders (bondholders).
4 Bond Features (continued) If a bond has five years to maturity, an $80 annual coupon, and a $1000 face value, its cash flows would look like this:TimeCoupons $80 $80 $80 $80 $80Face Value $$______How much is this bond worth? It depends on the level of current market interest rates. If the going rate on bonds like this one is 10%, then this bond is worth $ Why?
5 Features of a May Department Stores Bond Term ExplanationAmount of issue $200 million The company issued $200 million worth of bonds.Date of issue 8/4/94 The bonds were sold on 8/4/94.Maturity 8/1/24 The principal will be paid 30 years after the issue date.Face Value $1,000 The denomination of the bonds is $1,000.Annual coupon Each bondholder will receive $83.75 per bond per year (8.375% of the face value).Offer price 100 The offer price will be 100% of the $1, face value per bond.
6 Features of a May Department Stores Bond (concluded) Term ExplanationCoupon payment dates 2/1, 8/1 Coupons of $83.75/2 = $ will be paid on these dates.Security None The bonds are debentures.Sinking fund Annual The firm will make annual payments beginning 8/1/05 toward the sinking fund.Call provision Not callable The bonds have a deferred call feature. before 8/1/04Call price initially, After 8/1/04, the company can buy back declining to 100 the bonds for $1, per bond, declining to $1,000 on 8/1/14.Rating Moody’s A2 This is one of Moody’s higher ratings. The bonds have a low probability of default.
7 The indenture includes The Bond IndentureThe Bond IndentureThe bond indenture is a three-party contract between the bond issuer, the bondholders, and the trustee. The trustee is hired by the issuer to protect the bondholders’ interests.The indenture includesThe basic terms of the bond issueThe total amount of bonds issuedA description of the security (if any)Repayment arrangementsCall provisionsDetails of the protective covenants
8 Bond Prices and YieldsThe price of a bond (B) is determined by its face value (F), the coupon payment per period (C), the number of periods until maturity times the number of interest rate periods in a year (T), and the underlying yield to maturity (y):
9 Bond Price Sensitivity to YTM $1,800Coupon = $ years to maturity $1,000 face value$1,600$1,400$1,200$1,000$ 800$ 600Yields to maturity, YTM4%6%8%10%12%14%16%
10 Bond Rates and YieldsSuppose a bond currently sells for $ It pays an annual coupon of $70, and it matures in 10 years. It has a face value of $1000. What are its coupon rate, current yield, and yield to maturity (YTM)?1. The coupon rate (or just “coupon”) is the annual dollar coupon expressed as a percentage of the face value:Coupon rate =2. The current yield is the annual coupon divided by the current market price of the bond:Current yield =Under what conditions will the coupon rate and current yield be the same?
11 Bond Rates and Yields (concluded) 3. The yield to maturity (or “YTM”) is the rate that makes the price of the bond just equal to the present value of its future cash flows. It is the unknown r in:$ = $_______ [1 - 1/(1 + r)10]/r + $_______ /(1 + r)10To find the YTM is trial and error:a. Try 10%:b. Try 9%:c. Try 8%:( ) The yield to maturity is
12 Barnhart, Inc. bonds have a $1,000 face value Valuing a BondAssume you have the following information.Barnhart, Inc. bonds have a $1,000 face valueThe promised annual coupon is $100The bonds mature in 20 yearsThe market’s required return on similar bonds is 10%1. Calculate the present value of the face value2. Calculate the present value of the coupon payments3. The value of each bond =
13 Example: A Discount Bond Assume you have the following information.Barnhart, Inc. bonds have a $1,000 face valueThe promised annual coupon is $100The bonds mature in 20 yearsThe market’s required return on similar bonds is 12%1. Calculate the present value of the face value2. Calculate the present value of the coupon payments3. The value of each bond =
14 Example: A Premium Bond Assume you have the following information.Barnhart, Inc. bonds have a $1,000 face valueThe promised annual coupon is $100The bonds mature in 20 yearsThe market’s required return on similar bonds is 8%1. Calculate the present value of the face value2. Calculate the present value of the coupon payments3. The value of each bond =Why do the bonds in this and the preceding example have prices that are different from par?
16 Semiannual CouponsIn practice, bonds issued in Canada usually make coupon payments twice a year.Bond yields are quoted like APRs. The quoted rate is equal to the actual rate per period multiplied by the number of periods.Suppose the coupon rate is 8%. With a 10% quoted yield and semiannual coupon payments, the true yield is ________________. The bond matures in 7 years. What is the bond’s price?
17 Sample Bond Quotations BondsSupplied by RBC Dominion Securities Inc./International from ReutersCoupon Mat. Date Bid S Yld%GovernmentCanada Aug 01/Canada Sep 01/Canada Jul 01/Canada Jun 01/OMHC Jun 30/OMHC Jun 02/CorporateBank of Mont Oct 16/Cdn Imp Bank Dec 06/Imperial Oil Dec 15/Loblaws Co Nov 08/Royal Bank Jan 11/Union Gas Nov 10/Source: The Financial Post, June 17, 1998, p.45. Used with permission.1
18 Holding period return on a bond stems from Bond ReturnsHolding period return on a bond stems from1.2.Yield to maturity is internal return on bond but only relevant if coupons reinvested at same rate up to maturity date
19 Bond Return ExampleAssume you have a 1-year investment horizon and are choosing among three investment grade bonds with 10-years to maturity: a zero-coupon bond, an 8% coupon bond, a 10% coupon bond. Assume yield to maturity of 8%.If the yields on the three bonds are expected to be 8% next year, what is their holding period return?
20 Default RiskAlthough all bonds are promises to repay the amount borrowed, at times firms find themselves unable to pay. The risk that the firm may not repay the issue is default risk.Several agencies quantitatively measure default risk through a bond rating.What determines ratings?Why do firms get rated?
21 Bond RatingsLow Quality, speculative, Investment-Quality Bond Ratings and/or “Junk”High Grade Medium Grade Low Grade Very Low GradeMoody’s Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca C D DBRS (S&P) AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC CC C DMoody’s DBRSAaa AAA Debt rated Aaa and AAA has the highest rating. Capacity to pay interest and principal is extremely strong.Aa AA Debt rated Aa and AA has a very strong capacity to pay interest and repay principal. Together with the highest rating, this group comprises the high-grade bond class.A A Debt rated A has a strong capacity to pay interest and repay principal, although it is somewhat more susceptible to the adverse effects of changes in circumstances and economic conditions than debt in high rated categories.
22 Bond Ratings (concluded) Baa BBB Debt rated Baa and BBB is regarded as having an adequate capacity to pay interest and repay principal. Whereas it normally exhibits adequate protection parameters, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity to pay interest and repay principal for debt in this category than in higher rated categories. These bonds are medium-grade obligations.Ba, B BB, B Debt rated in these categories is regarded, on balance, as Ca, C CC, C predominantly speculative with respect to capacity to pay interest and repay principal in accordance with the terms of the obligation. BB and Ba indicate the lowest degree of speculation, and CC and Ca the highest degree of speculation. Although such debt will likely have some quality and protective characteristics, these are out- weighed by large uncertainties or major risk exposures to adverse conditions. Some issues may be in default.D D Debt rated D is in default, and payment of interest and/or repayment of principal is in arrears
23 Interest Rate Risk of Bonds Risk that the bond you own will change in value because interest rates (e.g. YTM) have changedReview:As interest rates rise, PV _________ all else equalAs interest rates fall, PV _________ all else equal
24 Determinants of the Interest Rate Risk of Bonds Time to Maturity:The longer the time to maturity, the greater the interest rate risk, all else equalReason:10% 1-year and 30-year bonds. Which bond’s price will change more with a change in YTM?
25 Interest Rate Risk and Time to Maturity (Figure 7.2) Bond values ($)2,000$1,768.6230-year bondInterest rate year years5% $1, $1,768.6210 1, ,000.00Time to Maturity1,500$1,047.621-year bond1,000$916.67500$502.11Interest rates (%)5101520Value of a Bond with a 10% Coupon Rate for Different Interest Rates and Maturities
26 Determinants of the Interest Rate Risk of Bonds (Continued) Coupon Rate:The lower the coupon rate, the greater the interest rate risk, all else equalReason:0% 8-year and 10% 8-year bonds. Which one has higher interest rate sensitivity?
27 The following statements about bond pricing are always true. Bond Pricing TheoremsThe following statements about bond pricing are always true.1. Bond prices and market interest rates move in _______ directions.2. When a bond’s coupon rate is (greater than / equal to / less than) the market’s required return, the bond’s market value will be (greater than / equal to / less than) its par value.3. Given two bonds identical but for maturity, the price of the longer-term bond will change _____ than that of the shorter-term bond, for a given change in market interest rates.4. Given two bonds identical but for coupon, the price of the lower-coupon bond will change _____ than that of the higher-coupon bond, for a given change in market interest rates.
28 Solution to Problem 7.17Bond J has a 4% coupon and Bond K a 10% coupon. Both have 10 years to maturity, make semiannual payments, and have 9% YTMs. If market rates rise by 2%, what is the percentage price change of these bonds? If rates fall by 2%? What does this say about the risk of lower-coupon bonds?Current Prices:Bond J:Bond K:
29 Solution to Problem 7.17 (continued) Prices if market rates rise by 2%:Bond J:Bond K:
30 Solution to Problem 7.17 (continued) Prices if market rates fall by 2%:Bond J:Bond K:
31 Solution to Problem 7.17 (concluded) Percentage Changes in Bond PricesBond Prices and Market Rates7% 9% 11%_________________________________Bond J% chg. ( % ) ( %)Bond K% chg. ( %) ( %)The results above demonstrate that, all else equal, the price of the ________________ changes more (in percentage terms) than the price of the _____________ when market rates change.
32 Floaters and Inverse Floaters If interest rates rise:- value of principal falls (normal).- current coupon payment increases (floaters).- current coupon payment falls (inverse floaters!!).If interest rates fall:- value of principal rises (normal).- current coupon payment falls (floaters).- current coupon payment rises (inverse floaters!!).
33 Constant coupon bonds have ______ interest rate risk Inverse FloatersConstant coupon bonds have ______ interest rate riskFloating coupon bonds have _________ interest rate risk.Inverse floaters have _________ interest rate risk.
34 Callable bonds and convertible bonds - When will issuers call?- Yield-to-maturity compared with non-callablesConvertible bonds:- Why convertible?
35 What Do They Do on Bay Street and Wall Street Often Use Contingent claims pricingImportant as bonds are risky. Two types of bond price risk:Basic Idea:Take into account changes in interest rate and probability of default
36 What is the difference between a real and a nominal return? Inflation and ReturnsKey issues:What is the difference between a real and a nominal return?How can we convert from one to the other?Example:Suppose we have $1,000, and Diet Coke costs $2.00 per six pack. We can buy 500 six packs. Now suppose the rate of inflation is 5%, so that the price rises to $2.10 in one year. We invest the $1,000 and it grows to $1,100 in one year. What’s our return in dollars? In six packs?
37 Inflation and Returns (continued) A. Dollars. Our return isB. Six packs.
38 Inflation and Returns (continued) Real versus nominal returns:Your nominal return is the percentage change in ______________________.Your real return is the percentage change in __________________________.
39 Inflation and Returns (concluded) The relationship between real and nominal returns is described by the Fisher Effect. Let:R = the nominal returnr = the real returnh = the inflation rateAccording to the Fisher Effect:1 + R = (1 + r) x (1 + h)For example, the nominal return is 10%, the inflation rate is 5%, then the real return is _______.
41 The Term Structure of Interest Rates (Fig. 7.4)
42 The Term Structure of Interest Rates (Fig. 7.4)
43 Total number of coupon payments = Yield to maturity per period = Solution to Problem 7.8Joe Kernan Corporation has bonds on the market with years to maturity, a yield-to-maturity of 8 percent, and a current price of $850. The bonds make semiannual payments. What must the coupon rate be on the bonds?Total number of coupon payments =Yield to maturity per period =Maturity value = F = $1000
44 Solution to Problem 7.8 (concluded) Substituting the values into the bond pricing equation:BondValue = C/2 [1 - 1/(1 + r )t] / r + F / (1 + r )t