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©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter Nineteen Types of Risks Incurred by Financial Institutions.

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1 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter Nineteen Types of Risks Incurred by Financial Institutions

2 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-2 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Why Financial Institutions Need to Manage Risk The goal of a FI is the same as any for profit corporation, namely to maximize shareholder wealth. The major difference between a financial institution and a nonfinancial corporation is in the nature of their assets and liabilities and the degree of regulation. A majority of financial firms’ assets are pieces of paper. They are not readily differentiable from assets of competitors; this leads to very low ROAs. The goal of a FI is the same as any for profit corporation, namely to maximize shareholder wealth. The major difference between a financial institution and a nonfinancial corporation is in the nature of their assets and liabilities and the degree of regulation. A majority of financial firms’ assets are pieces of paper. They are not readily differentiable from assets of competitors; this leads to very low ROAs.

3 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-3 McGraw-Hill/Irwin In order to offer shareholders a competitive rate of return, FIs must therefore incur substantial risk.  This risk takes the form of using a high amount of leverage, investing in assets riskier than the liability positions funding them and maintaining minimal liquidity positions. Consequently, small errors in judgement can have seriously negative consequences for the solvency of FIs. Because many institutions depend upon the public’s perception of their soundness to attract business, events that erode the public’s confidence in one or several large domestic or foreign FIs can quickly spread and lead to major profit and solvency problems in many FIs. In order to offer shareholders a competitive rate of return, FIs must therefore incur substantial risk.  This risk takes the form of using a high amount of leverage, investing in assets riskier than the liability positions funding them and maintaining minimal liquidity positions. Consequently, small errors in judgement can have seriously negative consequences for the solvency of FIs. Because many institutions depend upon the public’s perception of their soundness to attract business, events that erode the public’s confidence in one or several large domestic or foreign FIs can quickly spread and lead to major profit and solvency problems in many FIs.

4 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-4 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Why FIs Need to Manage Risk why foreign FIs Risks of financial intermediation have increased as the U.S. and overseas economies have become more integrated FIs that have no foreign customers can still be exposed to foreign exchange and sovereign risk if their customers have dealings with foreign countries Risks of financial intermediation have increased as the U.S. and overseas economies have become more integrated FIs that have no foreign customers can still be exposed to foreign exchange and sovereign risk if their customers have dealings with foreign countries

5 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-5 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Risks Faced by Financial Intermediaries Credit Risk Liquidity Risk Interest Rate Risk Market Risk Off-Balance-Sheet Risk Foreign Exchange Risk Country or Sovereign Risk Technology Risk Operational Risk Insolvency Risk Credit Risk Liquidity Risk Interest Rate Risk Market Risk Off-Balance-Sheet Risk Foreign Exchange Risk Country or Sovereign Risk Technology Risk Operational Risk Insolvency Risk

6 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-6 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Credit risk Credit risk is the possibility that a borrower will not repay principle and interest as promised in a timely fashion. To limit this risk, FIs engage in credit investigations of potential funds borrowers, or in the case of investments they may rely on externally generated credit ratings.

7 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-7 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Diversify away Credit Risk FIs lend to many different borrowers to diversify away firm specific (borrower specific) credit risk. But the Systematic credit risk will remain (credit risk due to ‘systemic’ or economy wide risks such as inflation and recession) even in a well diversified portfolio. Many of the S&L problems of the 1980s can be attributed to an underdiversified loan portfolio overexposed to certain types of lending in certain regions. FIs lend to many different borrowers to diversify away firm specific (borrower specific) credit risk. But the Systematic credit risk will remain (credit risk due to ‘systemic’ or economy wide risks such as inflation and recession) even in a well diversified portfolio. Many of the S&L problems of the 1980s can be attributed to an underdiversified loan portfolio overexposed to certain types of lending in certain regions.

8 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-8 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Banks, thrifts and life insurers usually face more credit risk than certain other intermediaries such as MMMFs and P&C insurers because the former tend to have longer maturity loans and investments Tip: What may appear to be relatively small loss rates can quickly bring about the threat of insolvency at depository institutions (DIs). For instance, unexpected loss rates of 5% to 6% of the total loan portfolio can easily cause a bank to fail. Banks, thrifts and life insurers usually face more credit risk than certain other intermediaries such as MMMFs and P&C insurers because the former tend to have longer maturity loans and investments Tip: What may appear to be relatively small loss rates can quickly bring about the threat of insolvency at depository institutions (DIs). For instance, unexpected loss rates of 5% to 6% of the total loan portfolio can easily cause a bank to fail.

9 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 19-9 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Highest Risk credit card loss rates are significantly higher than most other types of domestic loans. Foreign lending, particularly sovereign lending, has traditionally been the most risky throughout all of the history of banking (you would think they would learn eventually) and has led to the loss of many fortunes and caused many failures. credit card loss rates are significantly higher than most other types of domestic loans. Foreign lending, particularly sovereign lending, has traditionally been the most risky throughout all of the history of banking (you would think they would learn eventually) and has led to the loss of many fortunes and caused many failures.

10 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Why our Bank hesitate to lend Tip: Only the unexpected portion of loan losses generates solvency risk per se. Banks set aside an allowance for loan loss account against to cover expected loan losses.

11 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Liquidity Risk Liquidity risk Liquidity risk arises when an FIs liability holders demand immediate cash for their financial claim Serious liquidity problems may result in a “run” Liquidity risk Liquidity risk arises when an FIs liability holders demand immediate cash for their financial claim Serious liquidity problems may result in a “run”

12 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Liquidity risk arises because there is a mismatch in the terms and maturity of a FI’s assets and liabilities. In many cases liabilities either have an uncertain maturity (they are due upon demand for instance), or they have a shorter maturity than the assets. Many FI’s assets are also less liquid than the FI’s liabilities. Liquidity risk arises because there is a mismatch in the terms and maturity of a FI’s assets and liabilities. In many cases liabilities either have an uncertain maturity (they are due upon demand for instance), or they have a shorter maturity than the assets. Many FI’s assets are also less liquid than the FI’s liabilities.

13 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Not to turn away customers Even if the existing assets and liabilities were perfectly maturity matched, loan commitments and the undesirability of turning away potential loan customers would lead to liquidity risk as borrowers increased their take downs or new loan customers arrived unexpectedly at the FI

14 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin So what is the solution FIs maintain precautionary liquid assets to meet unexpected liquidity needs and may purchase liquidity via brokered deposits, fed funds borrowed, reverse repos or via other short term financing sources.

15 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Interest Rate Risk Interest rate risk ( These changes caused by unexpected movements in interest rates give rise) Federal Reserve’s influence on interest rate volatility through daily open-market operations Effect of increased globalization of financial market Refinancing risk Reinvestment risk Interest rate risk ( These changes caused by unexpected movements in interest rates give rise) Federal Reserve’s influence on interest rate volatility through daily open-market operations Effect of increased globalization of financial market Refinancing risk Reinvestment risk

16 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin maturity intermediation many intermediaries invest in direct claims issued by borrowers (assets) while providing separate claims to individual savers (liabilities). This process is called maturity intermediation The maturity of a FI’s assets will then normally differ from the maturity of its liabilities. When this is the case, changes in interest rates can lead to changes in profitability and/or equity value many intermediaries invest in direct claims issued by borrowers (assets) while providing separate claims to individual savers (liabilities). This process is called maturity intermediation The maturity of a FI’s assets will then normally differ from the maturity of its liabilities. When this is the case, changes in interest rates can lead to changes in profitability and/or equity value

17 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Banks and thrifts engage in maturity intermediation to a greater extent than other institutions such as life insurers. Consequently the former two types of FIs face more interest rate risk. In general, if an institution has longer maturity assets funded by shorter maturity liabilities, it is at risk from rising interest rates. Banks and thrifts engage in maturity intermediation to a greater extent than other institutions such as life insurers. Consequently the former two types of FIs face more interest rate risk. In general, if an institution has longer maturity assets funded by shorter maturity liabilities, it is at risk from rising interest rates.

18 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin net interest margin Suppose the FI has two year fixed rate assets funded by one year fixed rate liabilities. The FI’s liabilities will reprice sooner than its assets. If interest rates rise, the cost of funding on the liabilities will increase in one year, but the income from the assets will remain the same throughout the second year, reducing the net interest margin. Suppose the FI has two year fixed rate assets funded by one year fixed rate liabilities. The FI’s liabilities will reprice sooner than its assets. If interest rates rise, the cost of funding on the liabilities will increase in one year, but the income from the assets will remain the same throughout the second year, reducing the net interest margin.

19 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin refinancing risk The institution has refinancing risk because the liabilities must be rolled over or reborrowed before the assets mature. Refinancing risk is the risk that at rollover dates the liability cost will rise above the asset earning rate. An institution in this situation will however benefit from declining interest rates The institution has refinancing risk because the liabilities must be rolled over or reborrowed before the assets mature. Refinancing risk is the risk that at rollover dates the liability cost will rise above the asset earning rate. An institution in this situation will however benefit from declining interest rates

20 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Reinvestment risk institutions with an asset maturity shorter than the liability maturity will benefit from rising interest rates, but will be hurt by falling interest rates. If the assets mature more rapidly than the liabilities then the institution faces reinvestment risk. Reinvestment risk is the risk that the returns on funds to be reinvested will fall below the cost of those funds institutions with an asset maturity shorter than the liability maturity will benefit from rising interest rates, but will be hurt by falling interest rates. If the assets mature more rapidly than the liabilities then the institution faces reinvestment risk. Reinvestment risk is the risk that the returns on funds to be reinvested will fall below the cost of those funds

21 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Example A FI has $100 million of fixed earning assets that mature in 2 years. The assets earn an average of 7%. These are funded by 6 month CD liabilities paying 4%. So we are in the former case where the asset maturity is longer than the liability maturity. The bank’s Net Interest Margin (NIM) = [(7% – 4%)*$100 million] / $100 million = 3%. If in 6 months interest rates increase 100 basis points, the 2 year assets will still be earning 7%, but the new 6 month CDs will have to pay 5%, reducing the NIM by 1/3 to 2%. This illustrates refinancing risk.

22 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin present value uncertainty The effect of a change in interest rates can be more directly measured by examining how the present value of the existing assets and liabilities will change as interest rates change. A FI with longer term (duration) assets funded by shorter term (duration) liabilities will suffer a decline in the market value of equity if interest rates rise. This occurs because the market value of the assets will decline more sharply than the market value of the liabilities. present value uncertainty arises from a difference in the duration of the FI’s assets and liabilities. The effect of a change in interest rates can be more directly measured by examining how the present value of the existing assets and liabilities will change as interest rates change. A FI with longer term (duration) assets funded by shorter term (duration) liabilities will suffer a decline in the market value of equity if interest rates rise. This occurs because the market value of the assets will decline more sharply than the market value of the liabilities. present value uncertainty arises from a difference in the duration of the FI’s assets and liabilities.

23 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Maturity Mismatching and Interest Rate Risk Asset transformation can involve differing maturities One type of asset transformation is the creation of a mutual fund - a portfolio of securities that are "transformed" into fund shares. These shares are available for purchase by persons who generally do not have the means to purchase a range of securities for diversification purposes. Economic or present-value uncertainty arises when interest rates change FIs can seek to hedge by matching the maturity of their assets and liabilities Asset transformation can involve differing maturities One type of asset transformation is the creation of a mutual fund - a portfolio of securities that are "transformed" into fund shares. These shares are available for purchase by persons who generally do not have the means to purchase a range of securities for diversification purposes. Economic or present-value uncertainty arises when interest rates change FIs can seek to hedge by matching the maturity of their assets and liabilities

24 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Market Risk Market risk Closely related to interest rate and foreign exchange risk Decline in income from deposit taking and lending matched by increased reliance on income from trading FI management required to establish controls or limits on day-to-day exposure to risk Market risk Closely related to interest rate and foreign exchange risk Decline in income from deposit taking and lending matched by increased reliance on income from trading FI management required to establish controls or limits on day-to-day exposure to risk

25 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Market risk arises when FIs take unhedged positions in securities, currencies and derivatives. Income from trading activities has increased in importance during recent years. In general, the volatility of asset prices and currency values causes market risk. Market risk arises when FIs take unhedged positions in securities, currencies and derivatives. Income from trading activities has increased in importance during recent years. In general, the volatility of asset prices and currency values causes market risk.

26 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank assets and liabilities can be separated into ‘banking book’ assets or liabilities and ‘trading book’ assets or liabilities based on the account’s maturity and liquidity. Trading book accounts are on and off balance sheet accounts that are held for a short time period and are generally speculative in nature. They are held in hopes of generating price gains or as part of making a market in a given security or contract. Banking book accounts are those held for longer time periods and generate interest income or provide long term funding Bank assets and liabilities can be separated into ‘banking book’ assets or liabilities and ‘trading book’ assets or liabilities based on the account’s maturity and liquidity. Trading book accounts are on and off balance sheet accounts that are held for a short time period and are generally speculative in nature. They are held in hopes of generating price gains or as part of making a market in a given security or contract. Banking book accounts are those held for longer time periods and generate interest income or provide long term funding

27 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Assets Liabilities Banking Book Loans Capital Other illiquid assets Deposits Trading Book Bonds (long) Bonds (short) Commodities (long) Commodities (short) FX (long) FX (short) Equities (long) Equities (short) Off BS Derivatives (long) Derivatives (short) Assets Liabilities Banking Book Loans Capital Other illiquid assets Deposits Trading Book Bonds (long) Bonds (short) Commodities (long) Commodities (short) FX (long) FX (short) Equities (long) Equities (short) Off BS Derivatives (long) Derivatives (short)

28 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Tip: The failure of Barings bank is an extreme example of market risk (see the Off Balance Sheet section).

29 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Daily Earnings At Risk or DEAR Value at Risk (VAR) is a relatively new method of assessing overall institutional risks. VAR attempts to measure the maximum dollar amount a FI is likely to lose in a given short time period, usually a day, with some probability Value at Risk (VAR) is a relatively new method of assessing overall institutional risks. VAR attempts to measure the maximum dollar amount a FI is likely to lose in a given short time period, usually a day, with some probability

30 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Tip: The VAR is a probabilistic method that estimates the likely loss that could occur at a given confidence interval (usually 95%). A simple VAR model would attempt to identify and estimate likely values for the major portfolio risk factors, such as stock price changes, currency changes, interest rate changes, etc. Based on either the factor’s historical variability or the use of Monte Carlo simulation the VAR model attempts to estimate the likely changes of each variable over the time interval, incorporating the correlations between the variables so that the FI can more realistically estimate the maximum loss likely to occur with 95% confidence Tip: The VAR is a probabilistic method that estimates the likely loss that could occur at a given confidence interval (usually 95%). A simple VAR model would attempt to identify and estimate likely values for the major portfolio risk factors, such as stock price changes, currency changes, interest rate changes, etc. Based on either the factor’s historical variability or the use of Monte Carlo simulation the VAR model attempts to estimate the likely changes of each variable over the time interval, incorporating the correlations between the variables so that the FI can more realistically estimate the maximum loss likely to occur with 95% confidence

31 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Off-Balance-Sheet Risk Off-balance-sheet risk –Interest rate risk,Credit risk, Currency risk abe Unique risks Off-balance activity Letter of credit Loan commitments by banks (Unfunded loan commitments are those commitments made by a Financial institution that are contractual obligations for future funding mortgage servicing contracts by thrifts, and positions in forwards, futures, swaps, options, etc Off-balance-sheet risk –Interest rate risk,Credit risk, Currency risk abe Unique risks Off-balance activity Letter of credit Loan commitments by banks (Unfunded loan commitments are those commitments made by a Financial institution that are contractual obligations for future funding mortgage servicing contracts by thrifts, and positions in forwards, futures, swaps, options, etc

32 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin The last twenty years have brought about tremendous growth in off balance sheet activities ranging from loan commitments to swaps to OTC derivatives. Off balance sheet activities are contingent claims that can affect the balance sheet in the future EX: A letter of credit issued by a FI is a contingent promise to pay off a debt if the primary claimant fails to pay. The last twenty years have brought about tremendous growth in off balance sheet activities ranging from loan commitments to swaps to OTC derivatives. Off balance sheet activities are contingent claims that can affect the balance sheet in the future EX: A letter of credit issued by a FI is a contingent promise to pay off a debt if the primary claimant fails to pay.

33 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin the incentive Profitability is the incentive driving the off balance sheet business. FIs are generating fee income to reduce the dependence on interest rate spreads and because of the increased competitive pressures on their traditional lines of business. Off balance sheet assets and liabilities have grown so much that ignoring them may generate a significantly misleading picture about the value of stockholder’s equity. Profitability is the incentive driving the off balance sheet business. FIs are generating fee income to reduce the dependence on interest rate spreads and because of the increased competitive pressures on their traditional lines of business. Off balance sheet assets and liabilities have grown so much that ignoring them may generate a significantly misleading picture about the value of stockholder’s equity.

34 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Many off balance sheet activities are used including: Loan commitments Mortgage servicing contracts Positions in forwards, futures, swaps and other derivatives (mostly by the largest FIs Many off balance sheet activities are used including: Loan commitments Mortgage servicing contracts Positions in forwards, futures, swaps and other derivatives (mostly by the largest FIs

35 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Why derivatives lead to risk Two aspects of certain types of derivatives lead to additional risks involved with their usage. First, calculating derivative values and payouts is complicated. This is particularly true for many OTC derivatives that banks sell. The selling banks typically understand the risks better than the clients. Second, derivatives typically involve large amounts of leverage. These two attributes imply that misuse of derivatives is likely to occur, and can result in extreme losses (or extreme gains, but rarely are the winners upset about those). Two aspects of certain types of derivatives lead to additional risks involved with their usage. First, calculating derivative values and payouts is complicated. This is particularly true for many OTC derivatives that banks sell. The selling banks typically understand the risks better than the clients. Second, derivatives typically involve large amounts of leverage. These two attributes imply that misuse of derivatives is likely to occur, and can result in extreme losses (or extreme gains, but rarely are the winners upset about those).

36 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin cases in recent years 1 In 1995 Barings Bank failed when a so called ‘rogue trader,’ Nick Leeson, bankrupted Barings after the bank allowed him to run up extremely large losses in futures and option trading on Tokyo and Singapore derivatives exchanges. Interestingly, Barings did not complain when he supposedly generated large gains for the bank and allowed Leeson to run back office order processing as well as trading activity, a clear violation of sound internal control procedures. In 1995 Barings Bank failed when a so called ‘rogue trader,’ Nick Leeson, bankrupted Barings after the bank allowed him to run up extremely large losses in futures and option trading on Tokyo and Singapore derivatives exchanges. Interestingly, Barings did not complain when he supposedly generated large gains for the bank and allowed Leeson to run back office order processing as well as trading activity, a clear violation of sound internal control procedures.

37 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin cases in recent years 2 In 1995, a trader at Sumitomo incurred losses of $2.6 billion from commodity futures trading. Losses of this size just shouldn’t happen if the bank’s internal controls are functioning properly. In 1995, a trader at Sumitomo incurred losses of $2.6 billion from commodity futures trading. Losses of this size just shouldn’t happen if the bank’s internal controls are functioning properly.

38 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin cases in recent years 3 Bankers Trust sold several complicated OTC swaps to customers. In one of the swap deals the customer (Gibson Greeting Cards) had to make variable rate payments based on Libor2. In the second swap deal with Procter and Gamble, P&G would have to make high variable rate payments if either short term or long rates rose, and extremely high variable rate payments if both rose, which is what happened. Both customers sued Bankers Trust claiming they did not understand the risks they were facing. The fallout helped lead to the Deutsche Bank takeover of BT. Bankers Trust sold several complicated OTC swaps to customers. In one of the swap deals the customer (Gibson Greeting Cards) had to make variable rate payments based on Libor2. In the second swap deal with Procter and Gamble, P&G would have to make high variable rate payments if either short term or long rates rose, and extremely high variable rate payments if both rose, which is what happened. Both customers sued Bankers Trust claiming they did not understand the risks they were facing. The fallout helped lead to the Deutsche Bank takeover of BT.

39 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin cases in recent years 4 Orange County investment advisor Bob Citron, a portfolio manager with very little formal finance or investment training, purchased structured notes from Credit Suisse First Boston. The notes were a type of inverse floater that would drop in value if rates increased, which of course they did. Citron had used an extreme amount of leverage in an attempt to earn higher returns (which he did for several years). When rates rose, losses mounted quickly and he could not repay the borrowings and the municipality went bankrupt, losing $1.5 billion. Twenty banks were sued; CSFB paid $52 million to settle charges Orange County investment advisor Bob Citron, a portfolio manager with very little formal finance or investment training, purchased structured notes from Credit Suisse First Boston. The notes were a type of inverse floater that would drop in value if rates increased, which of course they did. Citron had used an extreme amount of leverage in an attempt to earn higher returns (which he did for several years). When rates rose, losses mounted quickly and he could not repay the borrowings and the municipality went bankrupt, losing $1.5 billion. Twenty banks were sued; CSFB paid $52 million to settle charges

40 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Tip: To what extent do these problems imply we should limit derivatives usage? Are we comfortable with the caveat emptor "Let the buyer beware".[ philosophy currently employed?[ Tip: To what extent do these problems imply we should limit derivatives usage? Are we comfortable with the caveat emptor "Let the buyer beware".[ philosophy currently employed?[

41 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Foreign Exchange Risk Foreign exchange risk Net current and contingent asset (asset depend on future) exposures are at risk from declining currency values and net liability exposures are at risk from rising currency values Foreign exchange risk Net current and contingent asset (asset depend on future) exposures are at risk from declining currency values and net liability exposures are at risk from rising currency values

42 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin An Example of an FI’s Exposure to Foreign Exposure Risk An FI that makes a foreign currency loan (asset) is at risk from a declining foreign currency. For instance, a U.S. FI lends ¥100 million when the ¥/$ exchange rate is ¥110. The interest rate is fixed at 9% and the loan is for one year. Suppose that in a year the exchange rate is ¥120 to the dollar, The original dollar amount lent by the bank is: ¥100,000,000 / ¥110 = $909, In one year the borrower repays (¥100,000,000  1.09) = ¥109,000,000 In dollar terms this is now worth: ¥109,000,000 / ¥120 = $908, thus the bank earns a negative rate of return. Analysis: The dollar depreciated by (¥120/¥110) – 1 = 9.09% and the bank only earned 9% in interest. An FI that makes a foreign currency loan (asset) is at risk from a declining foreign currency. For instance, a U.S. FI lends ¥100 million when the ¥/$ exchange rate is ¥110. The interest rate is fixed at 9% and the loan is for one year. Suppose that in a year the exchange rate is ¥120 to the dollar, The original dollar amount lent by the bank is: ¥100,000,000 / ¥110 = $909, In one year the borrower repays (¥100,000,000  1.09) = ¥109,000,000 In dollar terms this is now worth: ¥109,000,000 / ¥120 = $908, thus the bank earns a negative rate of return. Analysis: The dollar depreciated by (¥120/¥110) – 1 = 9.09% and the bank only earned 9% in interest.

43 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin The risk of a declining yen could be offset various ways. The FI could acquire yen deposits or other yen denominated liabilities or the FI could sell the yen forward. or Suppose the FI procures a ¥100 million 6 month Euro yen liability to fund the loan The risk of a declining yen could be offset various ways. The FI could acquire yen deposits or other yen denominated liabilities or the FI could sell the yen forward. or Suppose the FI procures a ¥100 million 6 month Euro yen liability to fund the loan

44 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin In this case the exchange rate risk is reduced because the change in $ value of the loan asset should be at least partially offset by a similar change in the $ value of the Euro yen liability.

45 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Some exchange rate risk remains because the 6 month rate may change differently than the 1 year rate. Moreover, the FI faces interest rate risk if we presume that the FI must roll over the CD borrowings for six more months.

46 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin The potential severity of foreign exchange risk is illustrated in the 1997 Asian crisis. Many Asian countries had short term dollar and yen denominated debts. The debts were serviced by local currency earnings, so currency devaluations would impair the borrower’s ability to repay the loans. These countries had engaged in currency stabilization policies that lulled investors to believing that due to the Asian ‘economic miracle’ currency risk was minimal

47 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin As growth slowed, currency speculators began betting that the currency values would have to fall. Once the local currencies began to depreciate, beginning with the Thai baht, contagion effects quickly spread to other currencies, such as the Indonesian rupiah and eventually the Russian ruble and Brazilian real. The crisis then fueled itself as local firms could no longer repay their dollar denominated debts, leading to further currency devaluations. In the ensuing fallout of loan, investment and currency losses, the earnings of many worldwide FIs were hurt including Chase, which lost $160 million as a result, J.P. Morgan and many Japanese and South Korean banks.

48 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin The foreign exchange markets are the largest markets in the world and banks are major participants. They engage in currency arbitrage, taking positions in currencies to meet customer’s needs and outright currency speculation. Participation in the currency markets can actually reduce risk of foreign currency loans. It is the unhedged positions that add to risk. Moreover, currency movements are not perfectly correlated so maintaining positions in multiple countries may reduce overall risk given that some foreign exposure is inevitable.

49 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Country or Sovereign Risk Holding assets in a given country creates sovereign risk. When a foreign country is unwilling or unable to repay a loan, the FI has little recourse FIs usually have little recourse other than to await the outcome of often protracted negotiations between the country and some international institution such as the IMF. Holding assets in a given country creates sovereign risk. When a foreign country is unwilling or unable to repay a loan, the FI has little recourse FIs usually have little recourse other than to await the outcome of often protracted negotiations between the country and some international institution such as the IMF.

50 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Losses in the 1980s and 1990s due to sovereign risk were quite large and would have been even larger except for huge amounts of emergency funding provided by the IMF to countries experiencing a crisis. In 2001 Argentina defaulted on $130 billion of government issued debt and in September 2003 it defaulted on a $3 billion loan from the IMF. Losses in the 1980s and 1990s due to sovereign risk were quite large and would have been even larger except for huge amounts of emergency funding provided by the IMF to countries experiencing a crisis. In 2001 Argentina defaulted on $130 billion of government issued debt and in September 2003 it defaulted on a $3 billion loan from the IMF.

51 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin In 2005 Argentina unilaterally announced it would pay only $0.30 per dollar on loans and bonds outstanding from its 2001 debt restructuring. Apparently happy to get anything, about three fourths of the bondholders were expected to accept the offer. Many other countries have had similar difficulties, for instance, Mexico had two major crises in the last decades, Russia suddenly and with no explanation defaulted on its foreign loans in 1998, in the past Indonesia declared a debt moratorium, Malaysia instituted capital controls after the Asian currency crisis, Brazil has had difficulty repaying debts several times, etc.

52 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Technology and Operational Risk Technology risk arises from the possibility that new technology investments do not result in profit improvements. Excess capacity and customer reluctance to use online services are two examples of this type of risk. Online banking is currently facing these problems. Major objective of technological expansion is to increase economies of scale and scope Technology risk arises from the possibility that new technology investments do not result in profit improvements. Excess capacity and customer reluctance to use online services are two examples of this type of risk. Online banking is currently facing these problems. Major objective of technological expansion is to increase economies of scale and scope

53 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Operational risk arises when technology (or technology users) and other systems fail to perform properly. Major examples of operational risk include settlement risk, clearing risk, risks associated with custodial services and outright computer breakdowns. In Wells Fargo’s merger with First Interstate (FI), FI’s customer account numbers were not properly credited with incoming deposits. Wells Fargo incurred a $180 million operating loss as a result.

54 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin the definition of operational risk may including employee fraud, misrepresentation and account errors in operational risks In Wells Fargo’s merger with First Interstate (FI), FI’s customer account numbers were not properly credited with incoming deposits. Wells Fargo incurred a $180 million operating loss as a result. the definition of operational risk may including employee fraud, misrepresentation and account errors in operational risks In Wells Fargo’s merger with First Interstate (FI), FI’s customer account numbers were not properly credited with incoming deposits. Wells Fargo incurred a $180 million operating loss as a result.

55 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Citibank’s 2002 ATMs went down for several days, along with its online banking. In September 2004 about one third of Wachovia Securities brokers’ assistants could not access customer records or even log onto their computers. In February 2005, Bank of America announced it had lost computer backup tapes containing personal information (including social security numbers) of about 1.2 million federal government employees’ charge cards transactions

56 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Insolvency Risk Insolvency risk (bankruptcy) occurs when an institution’s assets are less than its liabilities. Insolvency risk arises from each of the aforementioned risks. The major safeguards against insolvency are equity capital and prudent management practices.

57 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin –A consequence or an outcome of one or more of these risks: interest rate Market credit OBS Technological foreign exchange Sovereign liquidity –A consequence or an outcome of one or more of these risks: interest rate Market credit OBS Technological foreign exchange Sovereign liquidity

58 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Interaction Among Risks These risks are all interdependent For example, a bank with problems in its loan portfolio may face higher funding costs and/or reduced funding availability due to the increased credit risk. Liquidity risk can result in emergency discount window loans and even insolvency. This is roughly what happened to Continental Illinois in Credit risk will often rise as interest rates rise, and credit problems can certainly lead to liquidity problems if the FI was counting on the receipt of loan repayments in its liquidity planning. These risks are all interdependent For example, a bank with problems in its loan portfolio may face higher funding costs and/or reduced funding availability due to the increased credit risk. Liquidity risk can result in emergency discount window loans and even insolvency. This is roughly what happened to Continental Illinois in Credit risk will often rise as interest rates rise, and credit problems can certainly lead to liquidity problems if the FI was counting on the receipt of loan repayments in its liquidity planning.

59 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Events can also lead to multiple risk exposures. The most obvious forms of event risk for FIs are regulatory changes that can affect multiple areas of performance. Terrorist attacks could fit in this category as well. FI losses due to the September 11, 2001 attacks were quite large. Large stock market moves can also result in increased credit, liquidity risk, interest rate risk and even foreign exchange risk.

60 ©2007, The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin Various other risks –sudden changes in taxation –changes in regulatory policy –sudden and unexpected changes in financial market conditions due to war, revolution, or market collapse –theft, malfeasance, and breach of fiduciary trust –increased inflation, inflation volatility, and unemployment Various other risks –sudden changes in taxation –changes in regulatory policy –sudden and unexpected changes in financial market conditions due to war, revolution, or market collapse –theft, malfeasance, and breach of fiduciary trust –increased inflation, inflation volatility, and unemployment


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