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Two more major changes Introduction of Cattle Tracing System data and Review of TIFF methodology.

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Presentation on theme: "Two more major changes Introduction of Cattle Tracing System data and Review of TIFF methodology."— Presentation transcript:

1 Two more major changes Introduction of Cattle Tracing System data and Review of TIFF methodology

2 Agricultural Census Main survey at start of June, smaller survey at start of December Database of all agricultural holdings in Scotland Data covers land use crops grown livestock numbers ownership/tenancy of land employment machinery Cattle split into 22 categories by age, sex and dairy/beef also 8 categories on numbers bought/sold in last year

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4 History of the Cattle Tracing System UK and EU efforts to improve confidence in beef following the BSE outbreak. computerised system launched in GB in Sept 1998 (already one in NI). EU requirement by the end of run by the British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS), based in Workington - part of DEFRA. How it works cattle registered to farm at birth. ear-tagged with unique ID number, electronic and “paper passport”. recorded each time moved. recorded at death. able to trace exact whereabouts of each animal at any point (in theory) …so able to trace where it’s been in event of disease outbreak. DEFRA fill in any gaps in life histories.

5 How do the data compare? 50,000 cattle in 1.8 million (about 3%) consistently more in CTS than in the census

6 1 cow represents 10,000 cattle

7 Are we OK about these differences? CTS notionally 100% coverage (particularly after cleaning), compared to 70% response and rest imputed (dairy farms particularly bad). comparison at individual farm level showed bigger differences amongst those with imputed data. administrative, legal requirement rather than trusting farm records. landless cattle owners not included in the census, but are in CTS. differences not related to any particular category. does anyone care about the actual number, or is it just the changes? Any other issues? categories not always the same. no split between dairy and beef – use breed info, then others on farm. need to change time series. Any other benefits? full data compared to non-response and partial coverage in December. other data on births, fallen stock, exports and imports, needed for economic modelling of industry, and on breeds. reduction in burden on census admin team. reduction in burden on farmer – on all farms, not just the CAP ones.

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11 Review of TIFF methodology National estimate of total net income across the farming sector, based on outputs, costs and subsidies. Used in the compilation of Scottish GDP and UK National Accounts. Methodology regulated by EC.

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13 CerealsUse individual yields for different crops Other cropsNew seed potato price survey : changes to assumption HorticulturePrice data from SRuC survey : use % change in cereal yield for latest year Finished livestockImproved prices and assumptions and correct some anomalies Store livestockImprove calculation of net export income and costs Livestock productsMilk quota data for volume, detailed BFREPA data on eggs Capital formationTechnical correction to scaling Other activities(see “Expenses” below) FeedCensus data used for scaling up FAS, all pigs included not just finisher Seed & fertiliserSmall corrections to modelling ExpensesMethodology for estimated costs in horticulture (not in FAS) changed. Previous use of SGM not viable given improved info on covered crop. DEFRA hort cost and FAS non-hort activities per hectare applied to horticulture, plus SGM-related methodology for non-hort area. LabourRPI inflator applied to insurance, redundancies, training InterestCorrection to methodology Rent- Plus normal updates of first and second estimates Jan 2013 changes

14 Comparison of 2011 and 2012 published estimates Largest changes Milk & eggsUse of quota and BFREPA data + £78m Costs Revision to FAS modelling - £77m

15 CerealsGrass seed & turf prices? Other cropsBetter estimates for mushroom? HorticultureBetter estimates for flows, shrubs, etc.? Finished livestockFull review going on. Also inclusion of CTS data Store livestockFull review going on. Also inclusion of CTS data Livestock productsNeed to work on replacement for milk quota Capital formationFull review going on. Also inclusion of CTS data Other activities- FeedImprove calculation of pig and poultry feed Seed & fertiliserSome assumptions need to be validated ExpensesEC requirement to use standard outputs and revised farm-types will change weightings LabourSome improvements in modelling? Interest- RentImproved tenancy survey data and improved modelling of rental housing estimates Reworked spreadsheets to make less prone to human error Plus normal updates of first and second estimates Publish full documentation Jan 2014 changes

16 Can you help? Area of expertise? Check out how we model that area Better data sources?


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