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Bio Joseph E. (Gene) Justin: Adjunct Faculty at University of Redlands Adjunct Assistant Professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Former Southern.

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Presentation on theme: "Bio Joseph E. (Gene) Justin: Adjunct Faculty at University of Redlands Adjunct Assistant Professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Former Southern."— Presentation transcript:

1 Bio Joseph E. (Gene) Justin: Adjunct Faculty at University of Redlands Adjunct Assistant Professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Former Southern California High School Math Teacher Former Assistant Professor of Astronautics at the US Air Force Academy Education: B.S. in Engineering Science (Aeronautics) from the US Air Force Academy M.S. in Astronautical and Aeronautical Engineering from Ohio State University M.A. from University of Southern California MBA from University of California, Los Angeles Ph.D. in Management from Claremont Graduate University Gene has 40 years in aerospace and is a retired US Air Force major

2 – (714) 896-1945 State of Aerospace -- 2010 Joseph E. (Gene) Justin, Ph.D. University of Redlands and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University * The University of Redlands, The School of Business, 1200 East Colton Avenue, PO Box 3080, Redlands CA 92373-0099 Embry Riddle University Worldwide, Los Angles Metro Center, 5001 Airport Plaza Drive, Suite 150, Long Beach CA 90815 The Seventh Annual AIAA Southern California Aerospace Systems and Technology (ASAT) Conference Santa Ana, CA 1 May 2009

3 Summary Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) in 2009 completed an assessment of the aerospace industrial base -- Little has changed A fundamental goal of the US aerospace industry is to help provide the dominant edge in technology and turn that edge into systems for space and national defense Concern that this relationship is weakening, and past capabilities and successes lead folks to take future capabilities as a given -- Creating a potential gap in future capabilities This gap may grow if the industrial effects of new choices aren’t included in those new choices Otherwise, decisions today can limit the strategy choices available in the future This paper does not argue if AIA is right or wrong, but asks what if they are right -- What does it mean for us – which may mean stronger business cases needed for retaining and creating capabilities Future aerospace capabilities may not be there when we need them, unless we foster them now

4 What are they talking about Aerospace Industries Association (AIA): Since World War II and in the Cold War, aerospace was believed to be able to provide whatever it took for whatever course was needed This may not be true in the future Gap widening since industry needs to make business case decisions on what capabilities to provide This matters because decisions now determine future capabilities And, making the gap wider -- Military and commercial programs may no longer benefit from common capabilities, tools, processes, parts, material -- in spite of efforts – for example parts, material Few, shorter, military programs with fewer commercial common benefits make the business cases to maintain capabilities harder

5 What are they talking about, Continued Aerospace Industries Association (AIA): Trends are not favorable Was over 50 US companies, now 6 majors 1993 Pentagon said too many companies (The Last Supper meeting) Small companies are emerging but still need to make case for their programs Other example, 1970s -- Contractor (Rockwell) retained capability for B-1B for years waiting for a restart -- Wouldn’t happen today Another example, B2 plant in Pico Rivera eventually became a Wal-Mart Military programs are having to carry more of their own weight and technologies -- in parts for example, specialty material for another Weaker economy, funding uncertainties don’t help the common base More decline in industrial base and fewer skilled workers are possible Aerospace can create or recreate capability, but it will take time and money (Government money), as well as skilled workers (if available)

6 DC-3 – 16,079 built, > 400 still in limited use

7 F-4 – 5,195 built, 631 active in non-US service Public Domain

8 A380, Orders stand at 202, 43 built so far widebodyaircraft.n/a380/htm

9 B1-B Photo

10 B2 Photo

11 F-35 Photo

12 AIA Recommendations Industry more as a partner in planning and understanding the forces that drive industry capability decisions Greater formal industrial base considerations in decision processes Greater assessment of the industrial base Industry capability needs to be a factor for space and military decisions, and industry decisions

13 Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF) Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF) had similar findings and recommendations in 2008: This is important since US aviation/aerospace industry makes up 9% of the US Gross National Product (GNP) But the industry faces challenges: Aging and declining workforce Restrictive regulations and export controls Defense acquisition instability Declining research funding Also cite air-traffic system that needs to grow to meet new demands Labor is a major driver in aerospace -- Employees are more than 635,000, with 380,000 in aircraft sector

14 ICAF, Continued ICAF -- Challenges In 2005, 55% of workers were over 45 (Percentage probably higher now) In 2008, 27% eligible for retirement (Percentage probably higher now) US lagging in math and science education, and foreign students less likely to stay in US and in aerospace Other examples in restrictions, materials, exports controls Example -- UK restrictions on the F-35 program Other example -- Government funding for aviation research peaked in 1987 and has declined since then by 50% Funding for NASA has also declined US aerospace faces major challenges

15 ICAF Recommendations Increased standards for math and science Tax incentives for industry and worker education Public service campaign to attract students into aerospace More competitive pay packages Streamline Export Controls Reevaluate International Trade in Arms Regulations (ITAR) Support NASA research in aviation Follow through on the 2003 President Commission on Aerospace -- Increased funding for basic research Tax credits for long term aerospace investments US needs to foster positive industry relationships

16 What are does it mean to us If ICAF and AIA are right, what does it mean to the Engineering Community: Challenges moving forward Decisions on capabilities may become more challenging Need to recognize that decisions now determine future capabilities Need to take the longer term view Need to emphasis even more common capabilities, tools, processes, parts, material If you are in aerospace, great -- Stay in aerospace but it will be challenging Need to educate and train the next generation and the next, next generation

17 References Aerospace Industries Association (AIA). (2009) The Unseen Cost: Industrial Base Consequences of Defense Strategy Choices, Arlington, VA. Gropman, A. (2008) Challenges ahead for U.S. aircraft manufacturers. National Defense Magazine, Wash. D.C. Feb.

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