Presentation on theme: "The Dynamic Environment of International Trade"— Presentation transcript:
1The Dynamic Environment of International Trade Chapter 2
2Learning ObjectivesLO1 The basis for the reestablishment of world trade following World War II LO2 The importance of balance-of-payment figures to a country’s economy LO3 The effects of protectionism on world trade LO4 The several types of trade barriers LO5 The provisions of the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act LO6 The importance of GATT and the World Trade Organization LO7 The emergence of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group
3Trade BarriersBarriers to trade are one of the major issues confronting international marketersThey can be tariff or non-tariff barriersCountries continue to use non-tariff barriers for a variety of reasonsTariff barriers have reduced considerably in recent yearsWhether it is legislation regarding Pringles being the same potato chips in the UK and causing additional value added taxes for P&G or what percentage of California Rice can be mixed with “inferior” Japanese rice and still be labeled California Rice, these are examples of non-tariff trade barriers that can be used to prevent the easy entry of foreign companies into the country.
4Media, global communications and technology has allowed world trade to flourish and expand in recent years. As Exhibit 2.1 illustrates, world trade is an important economic activity. Increased competition also leads to increased protectionism. The creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is one of the biggest advancement for free trade among countries. Trade statistics such as those listed in Exhibit 2.1 have often served to focus the attention of government officials around the world. We should however, view this data with caution. For example, although it is evident that the imbalance of trade is the biggest with China for the United States. However, often U.S. imports from China include a majority of parts made in other countries. The parts of the majority of computers assembled in China (Lenovo for example) are made in surrounding countries like Taiwan.Exhibit 2.1 Top Ten 2011 U.S. Trading Partners ($ billions, merchandise trade)2-4
5Over the past 30 years, U.S. dominance in export markets has diminished as Japan, Germany, and a number of newly industrialized countries such as South Korea and China have taken a larger share of world exports. Similarly, the industrialized nations of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, faced a decline in world market share of largest corporations. This decline in the position of the U.S. and other industrialized countries was a relative decline, reflecting the faster economic growth of several other countries, particularly in Asia.2-5
6World Trade and U.S. Multinationals Dominance of U.S. multinationals in the 1950s and 1960sLarge investments by U.S. companies in Europe and Latin AmericaConcern in Latin America resulting in expropriation of direct U.S. investmentsIn Europe, there was strong public demand to limit foreign investmentThe threat felt by Europeans was best expressed in the popular book The American Challenge, published in 1968, in which the French author J. J. Servan-Schreiber wrote:“Fifteen years from now it is quite possible that the world’s third greatest industrial power, just after the United States and Russia, will not be Europe but American Industry in Europe. Already, in the ninth year of the Common Market, this European market is basically American in organization.”Servan-Schreiber’s prediction did not come true for many reasons as described in the following slides.
7Source: Complied from annual reports of listed firms, 2012 The relative importance of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) after World War II declined where U.S. multinationals compete with strong corporations from Japan, Western Europe, Asia and many developing countries such as China and Mexico. This is forcing U.S. MNCs to examine new ways to remain competitive. From the 1960s to 2011, the U.S. moved from being the world's dominant industrial power to accounting for only 29 of the world’s 100 largest corporations (see Exhibit 2.3). Countries once classified as less developed were reclassified as newly industrialized countries (NICs). NICs such as Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong went through experienced rapid industrialization in specific industries such as steel, shipbuilding, consumer electronics, auto mobiles, light aircraft, shoes, textiles, apparel, and more. In short, economic power and potential became more evenly distributed among countries and Servan-Schreiber warning to Europe about U.S. multinational domination did not come close to becoming true.Source: Complied from annual reports of listed firms, 20122-7
8Exhibit 2.3 The Nationality of the World’s 100 Largest Industrial Corporations (size measured by annual revenues) Source: “2011 Global 500,” Fortune, , 2012.2-8
9Balance of TradeThe balance of merchandise trade also reflected the changing role of the United States in world tradeBetween 1888 and 1971, the United States had a favorable balance of tradeBy 1971, the United States had a trade deficit of $2 billion that grew to at $160 billion in 1987Trade deficit peaked in 2007, with the continued weakness in the U.S. dollarThe positive consequence of the global financial crisis in 2008 in the United States was the halving of the U.S. trade deficit during 2009 from its high in 2007Favorable balance of trade means that the U.S. sold more to other countries than it bought from them.
10Balance of PaymentsWhen countries trade there are financial transactions among businesses or consumers of different nationsMoney constantly flows into and out of a countryThe system of accounts that records a nation’s international financial transactions is called its balance of payments (BP)It records all financial transactions between a country’s firms, and residents, and the rest of the world usually over a yearThe BP is maintained on a double-entry bookkeeping systemAs barriers to the free flow of goods, services, and capital have fallen over time, and as other countries increased their shares of world output, non-U.S. firms increasingly began to invest across national borders. If we look 20 years into the future, most forecasts now predict a rapid rise in the share of world output accounted for by developing nations such as China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, Mexico, and Brazil, and a corresponding decline in the share of rich industrialized nations such as Great Britain, Germany, Japan, and the United States. The World Bank, for example, has estimated that if current trends continue, by 2020 the Chinese economy could be larger than that of the United States, while the economy of India will approach that of Germany. The World Bank also estimates that today's developing nations may account for more than 60 percent of world economic activity by 2020, while today's rich nations, which currently account for over 55 percent of world economic activity, may account for only about 38 percent by 2020.As these trends continue and economies become closely tied with each other, one way to impact the inflow of goods and services into the domestic market is through the use of protectionism. The Balance of Payments and it reflects the economic position of the country. The more protectionist a country is, it imports less and exports more and that is reflected in its Balance of Payments as a surplus. The U.S. has had a negative balance of payments in recent years and the country that accounts for a large portion of this deficit is China. This can be explained by the fact that a lot of the consumer goods sold in the United States are manufactured and imported into the United States and the amount of goods and services exported from the U.S. into China is relatively small.
11Balance of PaymentsThe BP is the difference between receipts and paymentsReceiptsmerchandise export sales.money spent by foreign tourists.transportation.payments of dividends and interest from FDI abroad.new foreign investments in the U.S.Paymentscosts of goods imported.spending by U.S. tourists overseas.new overseas investments.cost of foreign military and economic aid.2-11
12Balance of PaymentsA balance-of-payments statement includes three accountsthe current account, a record of all merchandise exports, imports, and services plus unilateral transfers of fundsthe capital account, a record of direct investment, portfolio investment, and short-term capital movements to and from countries; andthe official reserves account, a record of exports and imports of gold, increases or decreases in foreign exchange, and increases or decreases in liabilities to foreign central banks.Of the three, the current account is of primary interest to international business.
13Exhibit 2.4 U.S. Current Account by Major Components, 2011 ($ billions) 2-13
14Exhibit 2.6 What Would One U.S. Dollar Buy? As the U.S. trade deficit has increased in magnitude, there is pressure to devalue the dollar. When foreign currencies can be traded for more dollars, it makes U.S. products less expensive for foreign customers and this increases exports But, foreign products become more expensive for U.S. customers.Exhibit 2.6 What Would One U.S. Dollar Buy?Source: The Wall Street Journal, 20122-14
15ProtectionismThe reality of trade is this is a world of tariffs, quotas, and nontariff barriers and nontariff barriers designed to protect a country’s markets from foreign investmentAlthough the World Trade Organization has been effective to some extent in reducing tariffs, countries still resort to measures of protectionismCountries use legal barriers, exchange barriers, and psychological barriers to restrict the entry of unwanted goodsThe complex distribution system in Japan, is a good example of a market structure creating a barrier to trade. Most recently the United States and other countries have accused China of keeping the value of its currency artificially low to boost exports and limit exports.
16Arguments for Protectionism maintain employment and reduce unemploymentincrease of business size, andretaliation and bargainingprotection of the home marketneed to keep money at homeencouragement of capital accumulation
17Arguments for Protectionism maintenance of the standard of living and real wagesconservation of natural resourcesprotection of an infant industryindustrialization of a low-wage nationnational defense
18The Impact of Tariff (Tax) Barriers Tariff Barriers tend to increase:Inflationary pressuresSpecial interests’ privilegesGovernment control and political considerations in economic mattersThe number of tariffs they beget via reciprocity
19The Impact of Tariff (Tax) Barriers Tariff Barriers tend to weaken:Balance-of-payments positionsSupply-and-demand patternsInternational relations (they can start trade wars)Tariff Barriers tend to restrict:Manufacturer’ supply sourcesChoices available to consumersCompetition
20Six Types of Non-Tariff Barriers (1) Specific Limitations on Trade:QuotasImport Licensing requirementsProportion restrictions of foreign to domestic goods (local content requirements)Minimum import price limitsEmbargoes(2) Customs and Administrative Entry Procedures:Valuation systemsAntidumping practicesTariff classificationsDocumentation requirementsFees
21Six Types of Non-Tariff Barriers (3) Standards:Standard disparitiesIntergovernmental acceptances of testing methods and standardsPackaging, labeling, and marking(4) Government Participation in Trade:Government procurement policiesExport subsidiesCountervailing dutiesDomestic assistance programs
23Three Types of Monetary Barriers Blocked currency: Blockage is accomplished by refusing to allow importers to exchange its national currency for the sellers’ currency.Differential exchange rates: It encourages the importation of goods the government deems desirable and discourages importation of goods the government does not want by adjusting the exchange rate. The exchange rate for importation of a desirable product is favorable and vice-versaGovernment approval: In countries where there is a severe shortage of foreign exchange, an exchange permit to import foreign goods is required from the government
24The Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act (OTCA) 1988 Many countries are allowed to trade freely with the United States but do not grant equal access to U.S. products in their countries.To ease trade restrictions, the OTCA focused on correcting perceived injustice in trade practices.It dealt with trade deficits, protectionism, and the overall fairness of our trading partners.
25The Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act (OTCA) 1988 Covers three areas for improving U.S. trade:market access,export expansion, andimport relief
26General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) Covers three basic areas:trade shall be conducted on a nondiscriminatory basis;protection shall be afforded domestic industries through customs tariffs, not through such commercial measures as import quotas; andconsultation shall be the primary method used to solve global trade problems.
27World Trade Organization (WTO) Unlike GATT, WTO is an institution, not an agreementIt sets many rules governing trade between its 132 membersWTO provides a panel of experts to hear and rule on trade disputes between members, and, unlike GATT, issues binding decisions
28WTO The Internet exposed protected industries to global competition WTO was established January 1, 1995 through the Uruguay round of GATT ( )Statutory powers to adjudicate trade disputes
29WTO Permanent international organization New legal and institutional foundationPlatform for trade relations: collective debate, negotiation and adjudicationDispute settlement fasterEvolution of GATS, TRIMS, TRIPSThe World Trade Organization (like its predecessor GATT) is primarily responsible for regulating world trade and making sure nation-states adhere to the rules laid down in trade treaties signed by WTO member states. 147 nations that collectively accounted for 97 percent of world trade are members of the WTO, thereby giving the organization enormous scope and influence. The WTO is also responsible for facilitating the establishment of additional multinational agreements between WTO member states. Over its entire history, and that of the GATT before it, the WTO has promoted the lowering of barriers to cross-border trade and investment. In doing so, the WTO has been the instrument of its member states, which have sought to create a more open global business system unencumbered by barriers to trade and investment between countries. Without an institution such as the WTO, the globalization of markets and production is unlikely to have proceeded as far as it has. It is interesting to see the history of WTO’s dispute resolution among countries. See the “Banana Wars” (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/ stm) dispute that has been ongoing for over 16 years and the resolution in the case for an example of the role of the WTO and the type of disputes that it has ruled on. Immediately after the Banana Wars ruling, the EU filed a complaint with the WTO against the U.S. that establishing Foreign Sales Corporations (http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds108_e.htm) gives the U.S.an undue tax advantage and should not be allowed to make the playing field level for all countries.
30The IMF and the World Bank The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group are two global institutions created to assist nations in becoming and remaining economically viable.These organizations play important roles in international trade:by helping maintain stability in the financial markets andby assisting countries that are seeking economic development and restructuringThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank were both created in 1944 by 44 nations that met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The task of the IMF was to maintain order in the international monetary system, and that of the World Bank was to promote economic development. In the 60 years since their creation, both institutions have emerged as significant players in the global economy. The World Bank is the less controversial of the two sister institutions. It has focused on making low-interest-rate loans to cash-strapped governments in poor nations that wish to undertake significant infrastructure investments (such as building dams or roads). The IMF is often seen as the lender of last resort to nation-states whose economies are in turmoil and currencies are losing value against those of other nations. Frequently, in the recent past, for example, the IMF has bailed out governments of troubled nation states, including Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
31Protests Against Global Institutions Beginning in 1999, what some are calling “anticapitalist protesters” began to influence the workings of the major global institutions such as the WTO. The basic complaint against the WTO, IMF, and others is unintended consequences of globalization: such as damage to the environment, sweat shops, domestic job losses, cultural extinction, higher oil prices, and diminished sovereignty of nations. The protest in Seattle, WA in 1999 during a WTO meeting got a lot of attention followed by protests during World bank/IMF meetings in Washington in 1999 and in Prague in The protest groups, have over time affected policy. For example, “antisweatshop” campaigns, mostly in America and mostly student-led, have had effects beyond college campuses. Given the successes associated with the generally peaceful efforts to influence policy of global institutions, we can expect more of the same in the future.2-31