Presentation on theme: "Evolution of Terrorism and Counter Terrorism Measures Mike Vdovin First Annual IIS/IDL Student Conference International Security in a Changing World October."— Presentation transcript:
Evolution of Terrorism and Counter Terrorism Measures Mike Vdovin First Annual IIS/IDL Student Conference International Security in a Changing World October 15-18, 2003 Yaroslavl, Russia
2 phases of terrorism 1 st stage: national state vs local terrorist group; national or regional level; bad equipment. 2 nd stage: a community of states (or only one “state- policeman”) vs terrorist networks; global, international level; lots of money and good equipment; terrorism is a business for some sort of people. Interaction between political, financial groups and terrorist networks: a struggle or a collaboration. A new phenomenon: a structure that deals not only with terrorism, but also with politics and business.
2 kinds of counter terrorist policy 1 st phase of the terrorism – counter terrorist policy 1; 2 nd phase of the terrorism – counter terrorist policy 2. CTP1: cruel and non-personal (general) way of actions - “zachistki” in Chechnya. The result: tensity and few real terrorists arrested. CTP1 is ineffective because the terror wasn’t stopped and terrorism developed into its second phase. September, 11: the nature of the terrorism changed. That’s why the world needs a new counter terrorist policy – CTP2.
Counter Terrorist Policy 2 The ctp2 is headed by the USA. Its main features: new accurate weapons cooperation with other secret services work with the poorest developing countries struggle with the sponsors of terrorism
Terrorist’s chain Sponsors Terrorist leaders Bandits Civilians (victims) The most dangerous people here are: sponsors terrorist leaders That’s why they have to be the target number one for secret services.
Why did the ctp1 failed? The basic principles of the ctp1: to eliminate (kill, imprison) all the people who have any relations with terrorism; it’s possible to use illegal or cruel measures in some cases. That’s why there are 2 possibilities: to eliminate all the people connected with terrorism in illegal manner; to employ mostly legal measures. The liberal democracies chose the 2 nd variant. Therefore they weren’t able to stop the wave of terror, that had a chance to develop into its 2 nd phase. In other case, the democracies risked to become totalitarian states.
The key features of the ctp2 the ctp2 deals with problems of security, as well as with geopolitical and economical aspects; the recent example of Iraq: the war with terrorism can have nothing similar with the real terrorism. In that case, such problems as the economical growth in the USA, strong dollar or oil interests can be more important than the security. However, the ctp isn’t the best way to deal with economy and finances, if we consider its benefits for a whole country. But it can be very profitable for some groups of politicians and businessmen. There is a need to pay more attention to the real problems of global security
The US counter terrorist measures Iraq Afghanistan Kosovo Africa
The war on Iraq This conflict doesn’t have anything similar with the real war with terrorism, it’s just a way for some people to make their power stronger. The disadvantages of such conflicts: the radical Muslim world is becoming stronger, it can cause a conflict between the North and the South; the USA employ the mottos of liberation and use the term “democracy” in order to kill people without using a court; the war with terrorism is becoming a global TV show. Perhaps, the media is more interested in new conflicts and even more powerful than the White House.
Other regions The Taliban hasn’t been defeated yet; some of its structures are ready to carry out new attacks; Afghan farmers still raise poppy. Drug and weapon traffickers in Kosovo enjoy the freedom they have after the USA liberated them. Lots have been done to prevent creating new terrorist bases in the poorest African countries.
Russian counter terrorist measures Russian secret services have learnt how to minimize the number of money to terrorist get from their sponsors; they can just minimize the number of dead during suicide bombings; the Chechen bandits get money from the Chechen budget by blackmailing or cooperating with local officials. Only about 7% of the money in Chechnya is used of its purpose; 93% belongs to all sorts of criminals.
Russian and US counter terrorist policies Both counter terrorism policies are not successful enough. Terrorist attacks in Russia and US war operation in Iraq prove this. Russian and US mass media report that everything is fine and the authorities do all their best. However, there are much more problems there that it seems now. Some political groups in Russia and in the USA are trying to present their war campaigns and the methods are used as very successful ones. Both societies don’t have to fully believe their governments, they must check everything they are being said. The measures are used now are not enough to win the war with terrorism. We need some radical changes in the ways we deal with terrorism.
The connection between the ctp and foreign relations The war in Iraq has showed lots of differences between the USA and Europe. The ctp has a great influence on foreign policies nowadays. There is a dilemma for Russia: to be with Europe or USA or to have our own way. With USA: to conduct war with terrorism together, no economical advantages. With Europe: geographical, historical, economical reasons. No war with terror. Perhaps, it’s better to combine these two ways in order to have more benefit.
The things should be done to stop the terror The world’s society has to have its own single ctp. A special intergovernmental organization should be created to deal with terrorism. The stream of money from sponsors to terrorists has to be stopped. The connection between terrorism, business and politics has to be eliminated. The ctp should be more “independent”. Only legal procedures should be used during the war with terror.
The global counter terrorist operation The Americans and their allies discredited the idea of the world counter terrorist operation by starting the war in Iraq. The threat of global terrorism is undoubtedly very high; it can destroy the modern civilization. However, the traditional way of military intervention doesn’t work if we deal with nongovernmental terrorist network. Economical, political, police measure should be done by all the countries. Therefore, the UN can become more powerful again and lead the war with terror. [The crisis of counter terrorist policy”, editorial article, “Expert”, №33, 2003]
The measures should be done in Russia There are some additional measures should be done by Russia: RF should conduct administrative reform and make interactions between local officials and terrorists unavailible. The people who earn money by the war have to go to prison.