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PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURE TED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE FALL 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURE TED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE FALL 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURE TED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE FALL 2014

2 THE CURRENT DOMAIN OF RESILIENCY PLANNING

3 PLANNING FOR A FUNDAMENTALLY UNCERTAIN FUTURE HEADLINES FROM 2030

4 WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN? Demographic mix Demographic mix Amount of growth Amount of growth Consumer attitudes Consumer attitudes Industry shifts Industry shifts Energy costs Energy costs Economic cycles Economic cycles Climate change Climate change Natural disasters Natural disasters Unpredictable Some Predictability

5 RESILIENCY IN THE FACE OF: MARKET SHIFTS

6 WASATCH FRONT DEMOGRAPHICS GOVERNOR’S OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 31% COHORT CHANGES THAT WILL DRIVE THE HOUSING MARKET

7 WHERE WE WANT TO LIVE VERSUS WHERE WE LIVE

8 INDUSTRY SHIFTS Internet-related retail decline Auto industry dealer consolidation Industrial restructuring

9 MARKET UNCERTAINTY?  POLICY FLEXIBILITY

10 “MARKET SHIFTS” EXAMPLE POLICIES North Salt Lake General Plan 2013 Town Center policies

11 “MARKET SHIFTS” EXAMPLE STRATEGIES South Salt Lake “East Streetcar Neighborhood Form Based Code”

12 UTAH’S TEMPLATE FORM BASED CODE

13 HIGHER DENSITY ZONING PROVIDES MORE MARKET FLEXIBILITY DU/Acre

14 RESILIENCY IN THE FACE OF: ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

15 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, September 2012 GAS PRICES Recent TrendsProjections US Energy Information Agency

16 MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES ON TRANSPORTATION Data not available 0 to 730 $ 730 to 800 $ 800 to 860 $ 860 to 930 $ More than 930 $

17 MOST HOUSEHOLDS ARE SPREAD THIN Utahans spend about 25% on transportation

18 HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES? Housing? Transportation? Work? Food? Do city residents have the options available to cope? ? ? ? ? ?

19 WHAT CHOICES DOES A HOUSEHOLD HAVE? Transportation Choices? Housing Choices?

20 DESTINATIONS REACHABLE WITHOUT A CAR? Now 2040 Jobs reachable within 40 minutes of homes

21

22 ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY?  PROVIDE OPTIONS FOR HOUSEHOLDS?

23 “CHOICES” AS A POWERFUL AND ACCURATE COMMUNICATION TOOL Two valid ways of communicating: A mix of housing options in the community = “I have more choices” = “I have more control over my life” More high density housing in the community = “More crowding in the community” = “I feel less safe”

24 “CHOICES” AS A POWERFUL AND ACCURATE COMMUNICATION TOOL Two valid ways of communicating: “Choices”“Crowding”

25 KEY TAKEAWAYS Resiliency Planning in cities is critically needed and in its infancy Market Uncertainty?  Policy Flexibility Economic Uncertainty?  Maximize Choices Communication Approach Matters! Higher density zoning provides More Market Flexibility “Choices” = control over your life

26 PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURE TED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE FALL 2014


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