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©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Quantitative Cost/Schedule Risk Analysis
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Quantitative Analysis All risks have potential impacts on –cost –schedule Impacts are rated in the RM process –dollars –months All risks are linked to –area (of program –WBS #
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Quantitative Analysis Your plan has –cost –schedule allocated to plan elements –cost accounts –tasks
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Quantitative Analysis Risks WBS # Cost Impacts Budget Time Impacts Schedule Map
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Impact Table
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Quantitative Analysis NOW, interview risk managers Work with the impact table Determine three point estimates. –Best caseno risks impact –expected casesome risks impact –worst caseall risks impact Use lots of common sense
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Quantitative Analysis
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Quantitative Analysis Note that the manager may already have some reserve in his plan. This needs to be taken into account in establishing the impacted estimates
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Quantitative Analysis Run Monte Carlo Simulation Randomly combine the distributions Run many different times (>100) Best Expected Worst Cost or Schedule for WBS # Probability Probability Distribution for cost /schedule of WBS#
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Qualitative Analysis Outputs are –Cost Probability Distributions for project –Schedule Probability Distributions for milestones
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Option1: Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis Prerequisite: Project Cost Breakdown by WBS
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Option 2: Schedule Risk Analysis Cumulative Probability of Meeting Schedule % Set Date Prerequisite: Project Logic Network/PERT 80% 50% 10% Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 1
©2001 Plan B Systems Inc. PBSi Qualitative Analysis Provides assessment of: Adequacy of management reserves Achievability of critical milestones Integrates risk management into project planning, not just project management
Full Monte Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
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