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1 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 1 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 1 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 1 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques Fondation Europeenne pour les Energies de Demain Electricite de France (EDF)

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2 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 2 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 2 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 2 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Systems Energy Research subject

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3 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 3 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 3 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 3 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Methodological Exploratory Systemic Research spirit

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4 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 4 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 4 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 4 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Complex (Energy) Systems Risk (failures, aging, reliability-availability- maintainability-safety-security (RAMSS), vulnerability, resilience) Uncertainty Research topics

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5 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 5 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 5 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 5 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Modeling Simulation Optimization Research areas COMPUTATIONAL METHODS

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6 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 6 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 6 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 6 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research lines Aging and failure processes in components of energy production plants Predictions and prognostics Ronay AK, Jie LIU, Valeria VITELLI Component degradation, maintenance modeling and simulation Yan-Hui LIN, Yan-Fu LI Energy network systems Agent-based modeling Elizaveta KUZNETSOVA, Carlos Ruiz MORA, Yan-Fu LI Complexity Science Yi-Ping FANG, Tairan WANG System-of-Systems approach to external events risk assessment Elisa FERRARIO, Chung-Kung LO Optimization under uncertainty Rodrigo MENA, Carlos Ruiz MORA, Yan-Fu LI

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7 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 7 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 7 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 7 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research Thematic Posters (The CHAIRE)

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8 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 8 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 8 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 8 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research lines Aging and failure processes in components of energy production plants Predictions and prognostics Ronay AK, Jie LIU, Valeria VITELLI Component degradation, maintenance modeling and simulation Yan-Hui LIN, Yan-Fu LI Energy network systems Agent-based modeling Elizaveta KUZNETSOVA, Carlos Ruiz MORA, Yan-Fu LI Complexity Science Yi-Ping FANG, Tairan WANG System-of-Systems approach to external events risk assessment Elisa FERRARIO, Chung-Kung LO Optimization under uncertainty Rodrigo MENA, Carlos Ruiz MORA, Yan-Fu LI

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9 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 9 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 9 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 9 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Predictions and prognostics Research Thematic Posters (Research line 1)

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10 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 10 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 10 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 10 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Component degradation, maintenance modeling and simulation Research Thematic Posters (Research line 1)

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11 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 11 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 11 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 11 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research lines Aging and failure processes in components of energy production plants Predictions and prognostics Ronay AK, Jie LIU, Valeria VITELLI Component degradation, maintenance modeling and simulation Yan-Hui LIN, Yan-Fu LI Energy network systems Agent-based modeling Elizaveta KUZNETSOVA, Carlos Ruiz MORA, Yan-Fu LI Complexity Science Yi-Ping FANG, Tairan WANG System-of-Systems approach to external events risk assessment Elisa FERRARIO, Chung-Kung LO Optimization under uncertainty Rodrigo MENA, Carlos Ruiz MORA, Yan-Fu LI

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12 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 12 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 12 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 12 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research Thematic Posters (Research line 2) Agent-based modeling

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13 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 13 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 13 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 13 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research Thematic Posters (Research line 2) Complexity Science

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14 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 14 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 14 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 14 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research Thematic Posters (Research line 2) System-of-Systems approach to external events risk assessment

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15 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 15 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 15 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 15 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research Thematic Posters (Research line 2) Optimization under uncertainty

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16 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 16 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 16 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 16 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research lines Aging and failure processes in components of energy production plants Simulation-based stochastic Petri Nets model for component degradation with time-dependent transitions Numerical solutions of inhomogeneous continuous time Markov chain (ICTMC) for degradation process modeling Works:

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17 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 17 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 17 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 17 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Case study Two types of cracks form in dissimilar metal welds, i.e. radial and circumferential, and can grow into a guillotine style Case study: Alloy 82/182 dissimilar metal weld in a PWR primary coolant system

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18 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 18 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 18 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 18 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Multistate physics model (MSPM) Stephen D. Unwin, Peter P. Lowry, Robert F. Layton, Jr., Patrick G. Heasler, and Mychailo B. Toloczko. 2011. MULTI-STATE PHYSICS MODELS OF AGING PASSIVE COMPONENTS IN PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT. ANS PSA 2011 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis Wilmington, NC, March 13-17, 2011.

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19 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 19 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 19 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 19 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Key quantities Holding time probability distribution with influencing factors Transition probability The conditional probability density function (PDF) that the process will depart state i at time t, given that the process is at state i at time t’ and the values of the external influencing factors θ

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20 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 20 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 20 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 20 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Inclusion of uncertain external factors C: Circumferential crack D: Radial Crack L: Leak State M: Micro Crack R: Ruptured state S: Initial state θ 1 : Parameter 1 θ n : Parameter n P(θ 1 ) S L D R C M 2*10 -2 /yr 1*10 -3 /yr 8*10 -1 /yr 1*10 -5 /yr 2*10 -2 /yr Time dependent transition rates constant P(θ n )

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21 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 21 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 21 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 21 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Inclusion of uncertain external factors Initial transition rate: Scale parameter: is the explicit stress (MPa), T is the absolute temperature ( o K). Truncated normal distributions:

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22 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 22 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 22 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 22 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Influence of uncertain external factors Uncertain temperature TUncertain stress Mean curves with 95% confidence intervals Both factors have significant impacts on the mean probability value of initial state, P(s). At t=80, with uncertain temperature P(s) = 0.012 is 236% smaller than P(s) without uncertain factors; with uncertain stress P(s) = 0.011 is 196% smaller than P(s) without uncertain factors. Both factors have significant impacts on the variances of all state probabilities. Mean variance caused by uncertain temperature is 107.81% higher than without uncertain factors. Mean variance caused by uncertain stress is 119.81% higher than without uncertain factors

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23 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 23 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 23 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 23 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research lines Energy network systems A Multi-State Power Model for Adequacy Assessment of Distributed Generation via Universal Generating Function Uncertainty Propagation in the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System Environmental Power Unit Commitment Optimization Works:

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24 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 24 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 24 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 24 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research lines Energy network systems A Multi-State Power Model for Adequacy Assessment of Distributed Generation via Universal Generating Function Uncertainty Propagation in the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System Environmental Power Unit Commitment Optimization Works:

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25 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 25 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 25 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 25 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Distributed generation reliability Distributed Generation Reliability = Pr(P G >P L ) Loads Wind turbines Solar generators Electric Vehicles Transformers Distribution network Electrical power flow

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26 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 26 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 26 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 26 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Multi-state model of wind turbine 0 1 n WS -1 Wind speed statesMechanical States 0 1

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27 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 27 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 27 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 27 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Multi-state model of distributed generation system Transformer 1 SG 1 SG 2 SG 3 SG 4 SG 5 2 WG 1 WG 2 WG 5 WG 4 WG 3 EV aggregation 5 solar irradiation states, 2 mechanical states (working and failed, Markov model of mechanical state transition) 5 wind speed states, 2 mechanical states (working and failed, Markov model of mechanical state transition) 3 operating states: charging, disconnected, and discharging. 2 mechanical states: working and failed, Markov model of multi-state transition 10 load states, by clustering IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder modified Generation UGF: Consumption UGF: Reliability indices:

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28 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 28 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 28 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 28 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research lines Energy network systems A Multi-State Power Model for Adequacy Assessment of Distributed Generation via Universal Generating Function Uncertainty Propagation in the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System Environmental Power Unit Commitment Optimization Works:

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29 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 29 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 29 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 29 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Different uncertainties in the distributed generation system Aleatory uncertainties Epistemic uncertainties Distribution Network Operator Loads Wind turbines Solar generators Electric Vehicles Transformers Distribution network Electrical power flow

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30 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 30 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 30 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 30 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Uncertainty representation and propagation Aleatory uncertaintiesEpistemic uncertainties x 21 3 4 0 α 1.5 3.5 0.5 1 Possibility Possibility distribution Probability distribution Evidence Theory Able to hybridize two different uncertainties

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31 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 31 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 31 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 31 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines ComponentParameterSource of uncertainty Type of Information available Uncertainty representation Solar generator Solar irradiationIrradiation variabilityHistorical data Probabilistic (e.g. Beta) Operation parametersIncomplete knowledge Experts’ judgments, users’ experiences Possibilistic Wind turbine Wind speedSpeed variabilityHistorical data Probabilistic (e.g. Weibull) Operation parametersIncomplete knowledge Experts’ judgments, users’ experiences Possibilistic EV aggregationPower output Incomplete knowledge, subjective decisions Experts’ judgments, users’ experiences Possibilistic Transformer Grid power Power fluctuations Historical dataProbabilistic Time to failure Mechanical degradation/failure date Historical dataProbabilistic LoadsLoad valueConsumption variability Historical dataProbabilistic Different types of uncertainties in the distribution generation system

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32 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 32 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 32 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 32 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Results: Probabilistic-possibilistic v.s. pure probabilistic Penetration levels Hybrid Pure probabilistic PlausibilityBelief 15%0.05370.04080.0480 25%0.04820.03290.0410 35%0.04720.03150.0350

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33 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 33 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 33 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 33 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research lines Energy network systems A Multi-State Power Model for Adequacy Assessment of Distributed Generation via Universal Generating Function Uncertainty Propagation in the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System Environmental Power Unit Commitment Optimization Works:

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34 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 34 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 34 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 34 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Costs : Emission : Power balance: System spinning reserve requirements: Objective functions Environmental power unit commitment problem (EUCP) formulation Constraints Unit minimum up/down times: Unit generation limits: EUCP is non-linear, and mixed combinatorial and continuous multi-objective optimization problem

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35 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 35 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 35 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 35 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Priority list Solution: evolutionary (memetic) algorithm Multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) (NSGA-II )+ Two local search strategies: 1) deep local search (DLS), 2) wide local search (WLS) NSGA-II initial population generation: priority list

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36 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 36 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 36 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 36 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Multi-Objective Memetic Algorithm (MOMA)

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37 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 37 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 37 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 37 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Convergence and comparisons Methods10-unit100-unit ELR5639775605678 GA5658255627437 SA5658285617876 UCC-GA5639775626514 QEA-UC5639385609550 ICA5639385617913 NSGA-II+DLS5639385605918 No of Units Cost ($)NSGA-IINSGA-II + DLS NSGA-II + WLS 10Best565898563938564096 Average567212564240564690 Worst569923564723566224 100Best562561656059185618657 Average562754156189705623096 Worst563015456238135625982

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38 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 38 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 38 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 38 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Pareto-fronts of different multi-objective optimization algorithms

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39 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 39 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 39 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 39 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Research team

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40 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 40 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines 40 Agip KCO Introduction to exploration activities 40 Agip KCO Piping and long distance pipelines Merci Cпасибо Grazie Gracias Teşekkürler Thanks 谢谢

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