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CAPTURING CAUSAL REASONING USING ADAPTIVE LOGICS (Within Research Project: Applying Adaptive Logics in the History and Philosophy of Science) Leen.DeVreese@UGent.be CAUSALITYADAPTIVE LOGICS FEEDBACK to General Framework necessary adaptations useful extensions (formal) problems to be solved ALcd (adaptive logic for causal discovery) ALcm (adaptive logic for causal reasoning using mechanisms) ALcs (adaptive logic for singular causal explanation) ALcf (adaptive logic for causal reasoning using counterfactuals) CAUSAL DISCOVERY SINGULAR CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS COUNTERFACTUALS What? How do scientists reason from correlations to causal relations? What is the function that mechanisms (can) play in this kind of causal reasoning? So what? Philosophical conclusions with regard to the covariation/mechanism debate and the combination of both approaches. What? How do researchers go on in their search for singular causal explanations? So What? Philosophical conclusions with regard to the specific characteristics of singular causal explanations in comparison with other kinds of causal reasoning. What? How does one conclude to causal relations on the basis of counterfactuals?. We focus in particular on the criticisms on David Lewis’ approach with regard to trumping, preemption, context-dependence and intransitivity. So What? Philosophical conclusions with respect to the counterfactual approach and her critics. TO DEVELOP AND APPLY ADAPTIVE LOGICS THAT CAN EXPLICATE THE CAUSAL REASONING PROCESSES PERFORMED BY RESEARCHERS. AIM: Development of ALcd: Van Dyck, M., Causal Reasoning Using Adaptive Logics Application of ALcd: De Vreese L. & Weber E., Application of the Adaptive Logic for Causal Discovery. (=application on sociological study investigating the relation between parental separation and smoking initiation in adolescents) Development of ALcm: This will become an extension of Alcd. Application of ALcm: Applications of Alcm will probably in the first place be taken from the domain of medical science and daily reasoning, but the logic is intended to be widely applicable to all kinds of cases. Development and Application of ALcs: De Vreese L. and Weber E., Searching for Singular Causal Explanations: a formal analysis. In this article, the analysis of the search for an explanation of some shipdisasters is used as a basis to commence the development of Alcs. More research work will follow. Development of ALcf: First, a basic logic handling counterfactual reasoning (cf. Lewis) will be developed. An extension of this logic is expected to be able to handle the problems of trumping, preemption, context-dependence and in- transitivity. Application of ALcf Daily reasoning will probably form the first source for applications of these logics, but again, those logics should be applicable to a wide range of domains. GENERAL FRAMEWORK The adaptive logic programme aims at developing formal logics that are able to explicate the dynamic aspects of human reasoning. Adaptive logics have some advantages with regard to classical logic: Adaptive logics are able to capture two kinds of dynamics in a reasoning process: 1.External dynamics: conclusions can be withdrawn in view of new information. 2.Internal dynamics: conclusions can be withdrawn in view of the better understanding of the premises. The dynamic proof theory of adaptive logics makes it possible to handle e.g. inconsistent data, conditions, priorities, … The most important property of adaptive logics for this project is their ability to capture conditional reasoning processes: some derivations can only be made provided that certain conditions hold throughout the reasoning.

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