Presentation on theme: "Why WiMAX Tom Flanagan Director, Broadband Strategy Broadband Communications Group Texas Instruments."— Presentation transcript:
Why WiMAX Tom Flanagan Director, Broadband Strategy Broadband Communications Group Texas Instruments
Syllabus An introduction to Texas Instruments and our role in broadband? Historical perspective on market development Wireless technologies and the role of WiMAX What others are saying Final Exam
Summary Consumer markets increasingly drive technology evolution Mobile phones are the most significant consumer product –Mobile phone networks will have advantage in scale Of the various flavors of WiMAX, 802.16e has the best chance for success –Combines reasonable bandwidth with mobility –Needs acceptance in mobile phones to be successful (4G?) Bandwidth is Key. Wired networks deliver fixed bandwidth best –WiMAX may serve niche applications in fixed broadband but will not displace Cable, DSL and Fiber
Who is TI? Most consumers and educators in particular know us for our calculators
The Opportunity for TI Analog –Converting the world we live in to digital information Digital Signal Processing –Analyze, compress, enhance, transmit
Roughly ½ of all mobile phones shipped are TI based 8 of 10 3G designs use TI And many more… SX1 SPV F2051 Tungsten T N2051 P2102V P800 T191 3650 Zire 71 G8000 Wireless
DSP Drives Broadband 1984 Dial modem Hayes 212 –1,200 Bits Per Second –$1,200 1984 Leased Line Modem Racal 19.2 –19,200 Bits Per Second –$20,000 Modems sell for $1,000 per kilobit
DSP Drives Broadband 2004 - Broadband Cable Modem 3 Million Bits Per Second $3,000,000
DSP Drives Broadband How is this possible? –Signal processing innovation Hardware and software –Process technology development –System on Chip Integration (SOC) –Drives cost down –Expands the potential market –Enables new markets: The Connected Home –And the innovations continue…
Delivering The Impact of the Connected Home –Consumers and their connectivity needs have matched the enterprise and telecommunications markets as a driving force in the development of networking equipment and networked products
Available Today Retail outlets, consumer friendly prices Billions of connected devices
Bob Metcalfe's Law Connect any number, "n" of machines and you get "n" squared potential value –The value of a network grows exponentially as the number of connected devices increases True for Enterprises –Equally true for Connected Homes
Ubiquitous Networking How we communicate will change radically when the network is all around us. –Consider how Voice has changed in the past 15 years.
The Old Paradigm Physically Tethered - You went to the Network
TI Vision: Ubiquitous VoIP More than a replacement for traditional telephony VoIP support will be incorporated into desktops, servers, gateways and consumer electronics operating systems Hardware cost per channel will drop to the point that basic VoIP capability can be incorporated into nearly any connected device that has an IP connection E v e r y w h e r e
Integration The popularity of mobile phones has made them the integration platform of choice –Voice, Music, TV, Radio, Cameras, Medical –Further cementing their role as the key consumer electronics product
According to Nokia 650 million mobile phones will ship in 2004 And many more… SX1 SPV F2051 Tungsten T N2051 P2102V P800 T191 3650 Zire 71 G8000 Wireless
The Economist Mobile and landline telephony –Marriage or divorce?
Bandwidth We can’t have enough bandwidth –It is like disk storage – eventually we use it all Broadband connectivity will be an economic differentiator in the future –Are we on the wrong side of the digital divide? –The US is currently 13 th in household connectivity –Asians lead in bandwidth 10Mbps very common in Japan and Korea 100Mbps is the fastest growing service in Japan
Distance WLAN 802.11g ZIGBEE 802.15.4 BlueTooth 802.15.1/1a UWB 802.15.3a WLAN 802.11b 2.5G 3G 10m 100m 2km 1Mb/s50Mb/s Bandwidth Data/Voice SDTV/HDTV Music : high bit rate 256kb/s +Music <100kb/s 10km 20km+ 100Mb/s PAN LAN MAN WAN 802.11a/ HyperLan2 M WiMAX 802.16e 4G Bandwidth is based on Per-subscriber MWBA 802.20 FWBA 802.16a FWBA 802.16 3.5G 5km 2008/9 2006 2010 2006/7 2005 WLAN 802.11n 2005 BlueTooth 2.0 802.15.4a 2005 2004 2005 Reach / Coverage
Choices So what we need to consider is which technology or connectivity method is best for each portion of the network WiMAX may be a key technology for future networks but only a portion of the solution. –And as there are flavors of WiMAX the application of the technology will further fragment
Broadband Connectivity The key broadband technologies will be those that bring connectivity to consumers –Dual requirements Mobile Fixed (at home)
Mobile Broadband 10 100 1 0.1 Fixed (Stationary) Pedestrian (Nomadic) Mobile (Vehicular) 802.16e 802.20 2G/ 2.5G 3.5G WCDMA-HSDPA 3G IMT-2000 CDMA 1xEV-DO CDMA 1xEV-DV W-CDMA Mobility Bandwidth (Mb/s) 802.11 UWB BlueTooth DoCoMo will lead the HSDPA trial as early as next year
Mobile Broadband 2.5 and 3G Wireless technologies will dominate the near term requirement for mobile broadband –Too late for WiMAX to have an impact here WiMAX (802.16e) has a chance of becoming a key element of 4G wireless
802.16a/d Fixed Broadband Market Opportunity 802.16d = Indoor 802.11x competitor 802.16a = Line of sight Cellular Backhaul Corporate last mile Residential last mile (green field primary) DSL and Cable Modem gap filler in cities and mostly rural areas Developing countries (Eastern Europe, Latin America, some tier 2 cities in China) Hot Spot Backhaul
Unique Opportunity For Higher Education Use 802.16e to provide campus wide outdoor data access
Fixed Broadband In the US the dominant technologies will remain Cable and DSL It looks like Fiber may become a reality FTTC (curb) FTTH (home) FTTP (premises) Yesterday the FCC approved BPL and Deregulated Telco Fiber
What Carriers Are Saying AT&T –May use WiMAX for local loop replacement Paid $9.5B last year for leased lines BT/France Telecom –Looking to use WiMAX for DSL gap filler in UK and France for ubiquitous broadband coverage Covad –Exploring the possibility of conducting WiMAX trials late this year as a way to bridge gaps in DSL coverage.
The Analysts View Market research firm iSuppli on Monday described a largely lackluster outlook for WiMAX, which it said is surrounded by hype and will likely fail to catch on beyond niche applications. Established broadband access providers see no reason to adopt yet another technology for delivering data at high speeds, the company said. These applications will not be large enough to sustain the multitude of silicon suppliers and equipment manufacturers who have expressed interest in developing products for WiMAX," iSuppli said. "The hype surrounding WiMAX... as a fixed wireless access technology will remain just that -- hype." A report from ABI Research on Monday said efforts to position WiMAX as a Wi-Fi killer -- Intel, for instance, plans to support WiMAX in its notebook computer chips in 2006 -- will fail. "WiMAX enthusiasts sometimes claim that it will 'kill' Wi-Fi. Nothing could be further than the truth," a note from ABI said. High power consumption makes WiMAX an unlikely choice for battery-powered devices like laptop computers and personal organizers.