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An Infotrak Harris Poll Kenyan Voters Perspective On The Proposed New Constitution Of Kenya Prepared by Infotrak Research & Consulting A member of Harris.

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Presentation on theme: "An Infotrak Harris Poll Kenyan Voters Perspective On The Proposed New Constitution Of Kenya Prepared by Infotrak Research & Consulting A member of Harris."— Presentation transcript:

1 An Infotrak Harris Poll Kenyan Voters Perspective On The Proposed New Constitution Of Kenya Prepared by Infotrak Research & Consulting A member of Harris Interactive Global Network May 2010

2 The Methodology

3  A sample of 1200 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,000,000 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 3 The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya  The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural  Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya  Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews  The survey was conducted between 24 th - 27 th May, 2010

4 The Key Findings

5 Finding 1: Nearly two thirds of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4 th referendum are indeed aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya

6 Approximately two thirds of those who intend to vote in the August 4 th referendum are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution  Majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4 th referendum reported awareness of the proposed constitution  The lowest incidences of awareness were recorded in Eastern and Rift Valley provinces Base 1200 Are you conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

7 More urban than rural residents are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya Male % Female % Total % YES NO Base 780 Base 420 Base 1200  More males than females indicated that they were aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya  On the other hand, awareness level of the contents of the proposed new constitution is higher amongst urban dwellers (70%) as compared to rural (58%) Are you conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

8 The youth as compared to the older survey participants are more aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution  Majority of the survey participants who are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution are in 18 – 44 yr age group Base 1200 Are you conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

9 Survey participants with less education had low awareness with regard to the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya  Majority of those who were not conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution, reported to have attained only primary level of education Base 1200 Are you conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

10 Finding 2: The media is the main source of information on the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya

11 55% of Kenyans who are aware of the contents of the proposed constitution indicated that the media is their main source of information on the same  Besides the media, mentioned by more than half of Kenyans (55%) as their main source of information on the contents of the proposed constitution, 39% of survey respondents stated that they have indeed read the proposed new constitution of Kenya and therefore were aware of its contents Base 792 How did you get to know the contents of the proposed new constitution?

12 Finding 3: Civic education will inform most of those who are currently not aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution on how to vote in the forthcoming referendum

13 Majority of the survey participants who are unaware of the contents of the proposed new constitution believe they will be informed by civic education  For those who are unaware of the contents of the proposed new constitution but intend to vote in the August 4 th referendum, most indicated that civic education would inform how their vote You have indicated that you are not conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution. What then will inform your voting in the referendum? Base 408

14 Finding 4: Eighty percent of Kenyans who intend participate in the August 4 th referendum believe that the proposed new constitution is better than the current constitution

15 Majority of Kenyans (80%) believe the proposed new constitution is better than the current constitution  Whilst majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August referendum feel that the proposed new constitution is better that the current constitution, 10% do not  As compared to other provinces, more Eastern and Rift Valley residents stated that the proposed new constitution is worse than the current constitution Base 1200 How would you compare the proposed new constitution with the current constitution?

16 Majority of survey participants stated that they would participate in the forthcoming referendum so as to ensure that Kenya gets a new constitution Base 1200 You have indicated that you intend to vote in the August referendum. What are your reasons?

17 Reasons for liking or disliking the proposed new constitution Reasons for liking the proposed new constitution Incidence level % Base = 980 Devolution of power & decentralization of resources 71 Land issues/allocation63 Equality in in paying of taxes in the public service 27 Representation of people22 Ministers not to be members of parliament/lean cabinet 15 Vetting of judges in the judiciary15 Gender equality12 Executive presidency with no prime minister 8 Dual citizenship5 Others3 Reasons for disliking the proposed new constitution Incidence level % Base = 516 Abortion will lead to many killings65 Kadhi's courts is unfair to other religions46 Unfair representation41 Elimination of provincial administration31 Only those with large trucks of land will have title deeds while those with small pieces of land will not be given 12 Others4 You have indicated that you DO NOT intend to vote in the August 4th referendum, what are your reasons?

18 Finding 5: 63% of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4 th referendum indicated they would vote YES for the proposed constitution of Kenya

19 Majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum stated that they would vote YES for the proposed constitution  Majority of Kenyans who would participate in the forthcoming referendum exercise stated that they would vote YES while 21% indicated they would vote NO if the referendum was to be held today  On the other hand, the undecided constitute 16% of the survey respondents  Eastern and Rift Valley recorded the lowest incidence with regard to voting YES for the proposed new constitution Base 1200 If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?

20 Majority of the males as compared to the females stated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution  More males than females indicated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution of Kenya if the referendum was to be held today Base 612 Base 1200Base 588 If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?

21 Majority of those who would vote YES for the proposed new constitution if a referendum was held today are the youth If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote? Base 1200

22 Whilst majority of Kenyans who are registered as voters intend to vote YES in the August, more rural than urban dwellers stated that they would vote NO  More urban than rural dwellers indicated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution  On the other hand, more rural than urban residents stated that they would vote NO in if the referendum was to be held today Base 780Base 420 Base 1200 If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?

23 Finding 6: Majority of Kenyans who intend to participate in the referendum if it were to be held today would vote out of their own informed decisions

24 Influences of voting patterns as reported by survey respondents  Majority of the survey respondents (56%) indicated that they would for or against the proposed new constitution out of their own consciousness Base 1200 Who/What has influenced you the most to vote ---- in the referendum on the proposed new constitution as stated above?

25 Finding 7: Approximately half of Kenyans who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum indicated that they DO NOT AGREE with the recent High Court ruling on Kadhi’s Courts

26 37% of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4 th referendum stated that they agree with the recent High Court ruling on Kadhi’s Courts  Whilst approximately one half of Kenyans who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum said they do not agree with the ruling on Kadhi’s courts by the High Court, 37% on the other hand stated that they agree with the ruling; 14% were indecisive  Coast and North Eastern provinces recorded the lowest incidences with regard to supporting the recent ruling on Kadhi’s Courts Base 1200 The High Court has delivered a ruling and declared the inclusion of the Kadhi's Courts in our current Constitution as unconstitutional. Do you agree with this ruling

27 Finding 8: Approximately eight in ten of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4 th referendum indicated that the High Court ruling on Kadhi’s Courts would not affect their decision on the proposed constitution

28 10% of those who intend to vote in the August referendum stated that the recent ruling on Kadhi’s Courts will indeed affect their decision on the proposed new constitution  Whilst majority of Kenyans who intend to vote stated that the recent ruling on Kadhi's courts has no effect on how they intend to vote in the August referendum, 10% said that it would affect their decision on the proposed new constitution while 12% were not sure  Across all regions, majority of the respondents reported not being affected by the ruling on Kadhi’s Courts Base 1200 Has the abovementioned ruling affected your decision on the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

29 The Demographics

30 REGION Base 1200

31 GENDER Base 1200

32 AGE Base 1200

33 SOCIAL ECONOMIC CLASS Base 1200

34 EDUCATION LEVEL Base 1200

35 LOCATION Base 1200

36 About Infotrak

37  Infotrak Research is a professional research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa.  The firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth not only to innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business minds who specialize in research. Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm’s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand.  In 2007, Infotrak became a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive, the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and Media Transfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms.


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