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Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Survey GB Q3 2009 Survey field dates October 2009 October 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Survey GB Q3 2009 Survey field dates October 2009 October 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Survey GB Q Survey field dates October 2009 October 2009

2 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 2 Topline Summary Nielsen/BRC Consumer Confidence Survey October 2009 In GB Consumer Confidence has improved again, suggesting in consumers’ eyes the recession has now bottomed out. This trend is reflected in research by Nielsen Buzzmetrics, Nielsen’s service for measuring online conversations, in the UK the number of online discussions or ‘buzz’ mentioning the word “recession” fell by 60% between March and June this year. Whilst fear of unemployment remains a very real trend for many, this concern is easing. As concern over the economy eases, the new fear for GB is one of debt. As shoppers look to make savings to stay within budget and better afford their annual holiday – they are increasingly willing to make savings on discretionary items. Whilst a third of consumers are more willing to spend on discretionary items there is a growing core who are not, suggesting shoppers are polarising depending on their own personal circumstances.

3 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 3 Topline Summary Nielsen/BRC Consumer Confidence Survey Consumer concerns and spending intentions The proportion of GB population feeling negatively about job prospects has improved slightly from 79% in June to 77% in October. Whilst Shoppers concerns over the economy and job security have improved since June concerns over debt and work-life balance have increased slightly. Since June attitudes have changed suggesting shoppers are less willing to spend on oneself but the annual holiday is the one treat consumers are less willing to sacrifice. The survey responses continue to reflect the external pressures shoppers are feeling personally rather than some of the macro issues such as global warming and terrorism that were more prevalent in the media 2 years ago. Having covered their essential living expenses, the proportion of consumers in Britain stating they “have no spare cash” has fallen to 19% but remains one of highest globally. To improve their financial security, a third of the population are trying to put some money away into savings despite the ongoing banking crisis, whilst just under a third are trying to pay off debts. Despite the number of deals currently available in the non food sector, the proportion of shoppers currently willing to spend on non-essential items has decreased indicating the real fear about debt in GB is finally reaching home. Post recession consumers have highlighted short breaks and holidays are the areas where they will be looking to spend their money.

4 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 4 Coping strategies post the recession The impact of the recession looks to have changed the attitudes regarding what consumers are willing to compromise on. 70% of GB shoppers have admitted they have changed their spending by saving on household expenses. There is a greater awareness of, and a need to seek value for money Whilst saving on utility bills remains the favourite strategy post recession, a third of consumers are also willing to: 1.switching to cheaper grocery brands 2.cut down on take-away meals 3.look for better deals on loans, insurance, credit cards

5 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 5 Consumer Confidence has improved globally in the last 3 months. Whilst GB confidence has improved it is still below Global average, but ranks above France Global average 86 2H 2009 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index 2H 2009 Changes 1H09 vs.2H08 Changes 2H09 vs.1H09

6 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 6 Nielsen’s latest survey into Consumer Confidence suggests that the recession has ‘bottomed out’ in consumers’ eyes and consumers are beginning to embrace the idea of recovery, GB is following this trend. GB Consumer Confidence Index versus Global Average, Neighbouring Countries & USA Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey Consumer Confidence October 2006 to October 2009 *June 2009 global index based on sub-set of 28 countries

7 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company Great Britain in Recession Consumer Confidence October 2009

8 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 8 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index Shoppers are feeling more confident Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey, Q Results: GB, 2005 to 2009 % pt +/

9 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 9 Some other economic facts that will determine shopper spend over the next year... House Prices – Debt (including mortgages) remains at all time high – £31k average per household – At 132% of average earnings this is not sustainable – Shoppers still rely on feeling `wealthy` to spend Credit card debt – currently over £50b (source : BBA) with ¾ of all cards paying interest, with this interest averaging 18% – Has not decreased significantly during recession Savings ratio – Will soon be back to 5% (of GDP) and increasing – Above 8% and GDP will fall again (source : Numis Securities) – c. 20% of households can no longer save anything each month ( industry consensus)

10 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 10 “Do you think job prospects in your country over the next 12 months will be... ” Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey Oct 2006 to October 2009 Consumer Confidence – GB results * new survey response option H Proportion of shoppers feeling ‘less bad’ about job prospects continues to improve, but only 20% are feeling good compared to 50% in November %

11 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 11 Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey Oct 2006 to October 2009 Consumer Confidence – GB results “Do you think the state of your own personal finances over the next 12 months will be..” * new survey response option H There has been a marginal improvement in the proportion of people feeling better about their own personal finances but the majority 58% are still feeling negatively.

12 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 12 “Considering the cost of things today and your own personal finances, would you say at this moment the time to buy the things you want and need is...” Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey Oct 2006 to October 2009 Consumer Confidence – GB results * new survey response option H Attitudes towards spending on discretionary items is polarising with the proportions feeling ‘good’ and ‘bad’ increasing.

13 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 13 Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey April 09 & October 2009 Consumer Confidence – GB results “What is your biggest concern over the next 6 months?” Whilst concerns towards the economy and job security are easing, concerns towards debt and work/life balance are increasing. Shoppers are noticing that inflation is slowing.

14 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 14 As UK moves out of recession shoppers concerns over debt are rising... Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey, Results: GB, 2008 to 2009 % pt +/

15 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 15 Shoppers are becoming more aware.. the time it will take to bring public debt back down to the level before the Credit Crunch is 20 years... They estimate by 2018 reducing this debt will cost the average household almost £3,000 a year. The public sector pension deficit... is estimated to be around £19,000 per UK citizen. Institute of Fiscal Studies 2009

16 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 16 Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey October 2009 Consumer Confidence – GB results “What is your biggest and second biggest concern over the next 6 months?” Debt is quickly rising to be the UK’s number one fear as concerns over the economy eases. Increased financial pressures are impacting work/life balance which has risen to fifth place behind job security. vs Jul09 =

17 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 17 “Do you think your country is in an economic recession at the moment?” Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey Consumer Confidence % answered “yes” The proportion of the global population believing we are in recession has eased to 71%. In Great Britain, France and USA there is no doubt with 90% of the population agreeing – though with France now ‘officially’ out of recession these numbers are improving.

18 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 18 Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey October 2009 Consumer Confidence “Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months?” Consumers in Great Britain continue to think in line with the Global average with just over a quarter believing we will be out of recession in a year.

19 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 19 “Compared to this time last year, have you changed your spending to save on household expenses?” Source: Nielsen – Global Online October 2009 Consumer Confidence % answered “yes” In order to cope with the economic crisis, 70% of GB shoppers agree that they have made changes to their household expenses in order to make savings.

20 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 20 With increased focus on debt, in the last 3 months, more shoppers are willing to put spare cash into savings and pay-off debts and fewer shoppers willing to spend on discretionary items such as Holidays, Clothes and Out of home entertainment. “Once you have covered your essential living expenses, which of the following statements best describes what you do with your spare cash...?” Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey Consumer Confidence – GB results

21 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 21 “At times when the cost of living is rising rapidly, which of the following actions would you take in order to stay within your budget: ?” Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey 2008 & 2009 Consumer Confidence – GB results Rank in n/a There has been a significant increase in shoppers looking to make savings on discretionary items in the last 3 months, with switching to cheaper grocery brands now the 4 th top coping strategy.

22 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 22 “When economic conditions do improve, which of these do you expect you will continue to do?” Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey April & October 2009 Consumer Confidence – GB results Shoppers have become more focussed on reducing debt post recession, with an increasing proportion of shoppers looking to make savings on discretionary items

23 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 23 “At times when the cost of living is rising rapidly, which of the following actions would you take in order to stay within your budget: ?” Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey October 2009 Consumer Confidence – GB results Post recession an increasing proportion of shoppers are looking to make savings to stay within budget, with a third of shoppers now citing switching to cheaper grocery brands as a key coping strategy.

24 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 24 UK Recovery UK Consumer confidence improved again in October As concerns over the economy and job security eases a little – shoppers are becoming increasingly worried about debt, which will impact their willingness to spend as we move out of recession. An increasing proportion of shoppers are expecting to continue to make savings on discretionary items, in order to stay within budget and afford an annual vacation.

25 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Consumer Confidence Page 25 Summary and Outlook for GB October 2009 Shopper spend has been remarkably resilient over the last 12 months following the rapid falls in Consumer Confidence during Consumers currently appear to have a sense of optimism compared to 6 months ago but the small recovery in Consumer Confidence masks the underlying concerns about unemployment and debt. The need to save money is as strong as ever and with the economic outlook of future tax rises and cuts to public expenditure now beginning to attract attention, shoppers are becoming increasingly cautious.


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