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What Goes Around, Comes Around 2 Examples of the Past, to forecast the Future.

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Presentation on theme: "What Goes Around, Comes Around 2 Examples of the Past, to forecast the Future."— Presentation transcript:

1 What Goes Around, Comes Around 2 Examples of the Past, to forecast the Future

2 There is nothing new under the sun Eccl 1-9 The past is the foundation we stand on today to reach for tomorrow

3 Example Past Winter How many people were looking at sequence of events in ? Lack of hurricane season, even with favorable SST set up Major ne pacific warm pool Major cold over US : Major ne Pacific warm pool

4 Dec 1917 SST vs this year

5 Dec 1993

6 This Year

7 17/

8 Winter This year

9 Our forecast Evolution July (Nov-Feb)

10 Verification of Nov-Feb

11 Nov 1 forecast

12 Nov 22 Final

13 Example.. End game of AMO/hurricane/arctic ice idea AMO cooling, warmest water at end of warm amo western Atlantic Pattern similar to 1950s Arctic ice starts to increase as the AMO cools

14 East Coast hurricanes in the 1950s

15 CURRENT WATER TEMPS

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17

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19 THE GREAT NEAR MISS 1961-ESTHER

20

21 Before SANDY, DORIA tried it 1967

22 Near Miss Major, Gerda 1969

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24 Last time positive Summer anomaly

25 Models still trying for positive extent, height of melt season this year

26 Reason why, until now, east coast spared.. SST not in wheelhouse

27 But it is now, as N Atlantic starts cooling

28 So here is the test: End game of AMO near, East coast hurricane threats enhanced But end of arctic ice scam in site Can’t wait for AGW agenda excuses


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