Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

SIOR FALL CONVENTION “ LIQUIDITY AND TODAY’S COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET” Renaissance Grand Hotel St. Louis November 9, 2007 ROBERT J. NAHIGIAN, FRICS,

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "SIOR FALL CONVENTION “ LIQUIDITY AND TODAY’S COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET” Renaissance Grand Hotel St. Louis November 9, 2007 ROBERT J. NAHIGIAN, FRICS,"— Presentation transcript:

1

2 SIOR FALL CONVENTION “ LIQUIDITY AND TODAY’S COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET” Renaissance Grand Hotel St. Louis November 9, 2007 ROBERT J. NAHIGIAN, FRICS, SIOR, CRE AUBURNDALE REALTY CO. NEWTON, MASS.

3 US CBD INVESTMENTS One Word: Hot and more Hot ! Values were up in 2006 Values continue to rise in 2007

4 LAST 2 YEARS It has been all about capital ! You couldn’t fail with real estate investments A lot of money chasing deals and “yields”

5 Next 2 Years 2007 looks like another banner year ! Real Estate now recognized as a 4 th Asset class with bonds, stocks and cash. There is a new demand and a new allocation ! new allocation ! Next 2 years could be very different

6 Next 2 Years Success based more local (micro) rather than national (macro) environment national (macro) environment Difficult to find a balanced value commercial investment in the US People think buying now will be cheaper than tomorrow

7 Next 2 Years Today everyone is a “genius” so demand for real estate has amplified Real estate growth and differences will be driven by sectors, market and not uniform growth Investors will need to look at real estate with true due diligence evaluation We need to get back to old-fashion growth and focus on NOI

8 DEMAND DRIVERS EUROPE PAYS MORE PSF; GLOBAL CAP RATES ARE LOWER (More Pricey) US REAL ESTATE PRICE IS STILL CHEAP COMPARED TO OTHER GLOBAL PROPERTIES DROP OF US $ HELPS REPRODUCTION COST IS STILL HIGH Construction Costs = 6-10% annual increases Source: Sam Zell/Hugh Kelly ’05 CRE Chicago

9 US COMMERCIAL VOLUME:

10 U.S. COMMERCIAL VOLUME

11 PROPERTIES PURCHASED: 1 st Q 2007: Source: CPN /1/07

12 SUMMARY ON RETURNS

13 US 10 YR. T-NOTE: ’62-’07 Source: Federal Reserve

14 US T-Note Yields: ‘07 Source: Federal Reserve 7/07

15 IRR Average % Source: CRE Spring Convention 4/07

16 CASH-ON-SIDELINES Sept. 3, 2004:$ 1.9 Tril. Jan. 30, 2005: 4.4 Tril Aug. 1, Tril. Nov. 11, Tril. April 1, 2007: 2.43 Tril. Sept. 27, 2007: 2.81 Tril. Nov. 1, 2007: 2.93 Tril. Source: MSNBC 2/1/0/Wall Street 1/25/07, Boston Globe 4/1/07;WSJ 10/25/07

17 MONEY MARKET CASH-ON-HAND

18 CONCLUSION CASH POSITIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASING SINCE 2006 BUT FOR HOW LONG? WE MAY BE SHIFTING SIDEWAYS: Real Estate v. Stock Market ?

19 CONCLUSION Debt is costing more today And real estate prices are starting to drop

20 REAL ESTATE YIELD BREAK-DOWN V. THE DOW

21 CONCLUSION EUROPEANS SAVE 47% OVER U.S. PRIME RATE JAPANESE SAVE 75% OVER U.S. PRIME RATE

22 CONCLUSION EURO DOLLAR WORTH 44% MORE SAVE 29-57% ON CAP RATES SAVE 47-75% ON BORROWING COSTS IT’S A DISCOUNT TO BUY IN THE U.S. !

23 CONCLUSION: For the Foreign RE Investor U.S. IS A STABLE, SAFE AND GROWING MARKET U.S. HAS LARGEST ECONOMY: GDP 3.9% U.S. $ IS CHEAP, CAP RATES ARE REASONABLE AND GLOBAL PRIME RATES ARE CHEAP ADD IT ALL UP: WINDFALL FOR THE FOREIGN INVESTOR !!!! THE FOREIGN INVESTOR !!!!

24 CONCLUSION CAP RATES could increase 100 BP by the end of 2008 The “Idiot Tax” will vanish next year Focus on NOI for value Liquidity is immense but not stupid Foreigners have an appetite but could pull the plug at any time

25 HAPPINESS DEFINED: EXPECTATION = REALITY OR REALITY IS GREATER THAN EXPECTATION

26 THANK YOU ! SIOR


Download ppt "SIOR FALL CONVENTION “ LIQUIDITY AND TODAY’S COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET” Renaissance Grand Hotel St. Louis November 9, 2007 ROBERT J. NAHIGIAN, FRICS,"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google