Presentation on theme: "1 Brazil – Norway Outlook of the Brazilian Economy Ambassador Sérgio Eduardo Moreira Lima MIB Forum, NHH, Bergen, 24 October 2007."— Presentation transcript:
1 Brazil – Norway Outlook of the Brazilian Economy Ambassador Sérgio Eduardo Moreira Lima MIB Forum, NHH, Bergen, 24 October 2007
2 50% of South America’s territory (70% of MERCOSUL) 8.5 million Km 2 50% of South America’s population (71.3 % of MERCOSUL) 190 million people 50% of South America’s GDP US$ 1.1 trillion (2006) Suriname Venezuela French Guyana Guyana Colombia Ecuador Peru Bolivia Chile Brazil Uruguay Paraguay ArgentinaLOCATION
3 World Largest Economies GDP (real exchange rates) - US$ Billion 1. USA Japan Germany China U.K France Italy Canada Brazil Sources: Bloomberg / IMF / International Herald Tribune (Oct.15 th 2007)
4 POLITICAL The 80s was a decade of consolidation of democracy. AS BRAZIL OVERCOMES ITS CHALLENGES
5 ….BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES KEEP OPENING UP. ECONOMIC The 90s was marked by overcoming inflation and bringing currency stability.
6 BRAZIL MOVES TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE PATH : A DECADE OF SOCIAL CHANGES economic growth reduction of inequality market expansion
7 BRAZIL: a New Growth Cycle Sustainability Income distribution Social inclusion
8 Decrease in Poverty Decrease in Poverty Source: FGV/PNAD/IBGE.
9 Reduction in Income Inequality Gini coefficient Household income Source: PNAD/IBGE.
10 Fundamentals for growth Reduction of external vulnerability Monetary stability Fiscal responsibility
Brazil Trade Surpluses (US$ billions) * ExportsImports * Up to September: Exports = 116 B Imports = 85 B11
12 INTERNATIONAL RESERVES */ Position at 06/Sep/2007. Source: Central Bank of Brazil (US$ billions)
CURRENT ACCOUNT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENT (US$ billions, 12 months accum. basis) 9 13 In the last 12 months up to October 2007 FDI reached a record of US$ 37.5 billions
REDUCTION IN THE SOVEREIGN RISK basis points Oct.2007: 161 points 14
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE (R$/US$) Jan 06 Feb 06 Mar 06 Apr 06 May 06 Jun 06 Jul 06 Aug 06 Sep 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 Oct.2007: 1 US$ = 1,80 R$
INFLATION: REDUCTION AND CONTROL Consumer Price Index (IPCA): Effectiveness, Expectations and Inflation Targeting (% Var. Accum. in 12 months) * 2007**2008** 16
PUBLIC SECTOR’s NET DEBT REDUCTION (% of GDP)
(US$ billions) CAPITAL MARKET (US$ billions) ) SharesDebenturesOther August 2007:: Over US$ 65 billions 19
CAPITAL MARKET – IBOVESPA INDEX (points) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Oct. 2007: Over points 20
21 “A new middle class is emerging almost overnight in Brazil. During 2000 and 2005, the number of families with annual income between US$ and US$ has grown 50%, from 14,5 million to 22,3 million, while the number of those who received less than US$ 3.000/year has been abruptly reduced to 1,3 million.” The Economist, edition of August 18 – 24, 2007 A New Middle Class
22 “Brazil is the clearest example of financial stability in Latin America” The Economist, edition of , August 2007 Trust in Brazil
23 BRAZIL-NORWAY RELATIONS 2007: a historical year State Visit of President Lula Visit of Foreign Minister Amorim 14 governmental delegations High level political & business contacts Agreements between companies and business federations
24 Brazilian Embassy and Brazilian-Norwegian Chamber of Commerce State Visit of President Lula Business Seminar, Sept. 14th, 2007
25 Brazil-Norway Business Cooperation A Memorandum of Understanding between NHO and CNI (Confederation of Brazilian Industries) was signed during President Lula´s State Visit.
26 EMBRAER One of the three main exporters in Brazil. Third largest yearly delivery of commercial aircraft (behind Boeing and Airbus). Embraer has maintenance and commercial sites in the USA and commercial offices in France, Singapore and China. Has a workforce of over 23,000 people.
28 Norway became in 2006 the main market for Brazilian Exports to the Nordic countries
29 Norwegian Investment in Brazil
30 PAC – Program for Accelerated Growth In January the Government announced a new 4-year programme for economic growth The “Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento” (PAC) is based on investments of US$ 236 billion in infrastructure Priorities: roads, electricity, water, sanitation and housing. Reduction of regional and social inequalities
31 Key Areas for Business and Cooperation Aircraft Production and avionics medium-sized ( passangers) jet planes military training aircraft Embraer is a global competitor in its category Biofuels Bioethanol and flex-fuel cars 78.1% of sales of passenger cars in 2006 Biodiesel Scientific and technological cooperation in biofuels MOU Statoil Petrobras
32 Key Areas for Business and Cooperation Shipbuilding (19 new and 23 future contracts: platforms, oil and gas transportation by Petrobras/Transpetro and general cargo) Small and mid-size hydroelectric plants Environmental technology (cleaner production, residue treatment) Fisheries and aquaculture of native species Tropical fruits (development of market and conditioning processes) Tourism
33 Norwegian companies doing business in Brazil Over 120 Norwegian companies are doing business in Brazil Oil sector:StatoilHydro Mining:Norsk Hydro Paper and pulp: Norske Skog Maritime services:Det Norske Veritas Shipbuilding:Aker Promar Offshore:DOF,Sevan Marine, Norskan Banking: DnB NOR, Nordea Fertilizers: Yara Telecommunications:Nera Paints:Jotun
34 ”During my visit to Brazil in 2003, Norwegian businessmen declared that Norwegian investments in Brazil would reach 5 billion US$ in the next 5 years. Today I can confirm that we are reaching this investment level” King Harald V (Sept 13, 2007) ”I come to Norway convinced that the present moment opens up new and important opportunities. One of them results from a lasting cycle of sustainable growth in Brazil” President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ( Sept 13, 2007)