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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON US AIR QUALITY: EXAMINATION OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICULATE MATTER CONCENTRATIONS AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO EMISSION CHANGES Tagaris.

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Presentation on theme: "CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON US AIR QUALITY: EXAMINATION OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICULATE MATTER CONCENTRATIONS AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO EMISSION CHANGES Tagaris."— Presentation transcript:

1 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON US AIR QUALITY: EXAMINATION OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICULATE MATTER CONCENTRATIONS AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO EMISSION CHANGES Tagaris Efthimios 1, Kuo-Jen Liao 1, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon 1, Armistead G. Russell 1, Jung-Hun Woo 2, Shan He 2, Praveen Amar 2, Lai-Yung (Ruby) Leung 3 1 School of Civil and Env. Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta, GA 2 NESCAUM, Boston, MA 3 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA

2 Regional future O 3 and PM 2.5 levels & components over US Future emissions Future climate grids: 147 x 111 resolution: 36 x 36 km

3 Methodology Simulating period: Historic yearly data: 2001 Future yearly data: 2050 Air quality modeling conducted using: CMAQ –DDM and Downscaling meteorology (GISS-GCM) using MM5 Emissions: 2001: US: Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) 2001 Canada: Environment Canada 2000 Mexico: US EPA’s 1999 BRAVO 2050: IPCC-A1B emissions scenario and CAIR 2020

4 Modeling approach GCM: Global Climate Model EI: Emission Inventory

5 Are 2001 and 2050 representative years? Temperature

6 Are 2001 and 2050 representative years? Temperature

7 Are 2001 and 2050 representative years? Temperature

8 Are 2001 and 2050 representative years? Temperature

9

10 Humidity Rain

11 Evaluation A general under prediction in 2001 annual temperature Better performance during summer months and worst during fall, caused by the high mesoscale variability during seasonal transition. Temperature

12 Mean annual M8hO 3 concentration is slightly (10%) over- predicted. Model performance for the mean annual PM 2.5 concentrations is region dependent Evaluation O3O3 PM 2.5

13 Emissions NOx: -50% VOC’s: +2% PM 2.5 : -10% SO 2 : -50% NH 3 : +7% PM 2.5 Composition (%) EC105 OC3028 OTHER6067

14 +2.3K +1.4K +1.5K +2.0K +1.3K +1.7K Maximum warming during fall months (up to 4.8 degrees in the West region) Prediction Temperature

15 Prediction PM 2.5 O3O3

16 M8hO 3 (%)PM 2.5 (%) SO 4 (%) NO 3 (%)NH 4 (%)OC (%) West Plains Midwest Northeast Southeast US

17 O 3 _ 2001 O 3 _ 2050 O 3 _ O 3 _ 2001

18 O 3 _ 2001 O 3 _ 2050 O 3 _ O 3 _ 2001 O 3 _ O 3 _ 2050np np: Emission Inventory 2001, Climate 2050

19 PM 2.5 _ 2050 PM 2.5 _ 2001 PM 2.5 _ PM 2.5 _ 2001

20 PM 2.5 _ 2050 PM 2.5 _ 2001 PM 2.5 _ PM 2.5 _ 2001 PM 2.5 _ PM 2.5 _ 2050np np: Emission Inventory 2001, Climate 2050

21 Sensitivity O3O3

22 PM 2.5

23 Conclusions Combining both emission changes and climate change future O 3 and PM 2.5 concentrations over the US are expected to be lower but the effects are more pronounced for regional PM 2.5 concentrations The contributions of anthropogenic NOx to O 3 formation are more important than biogenic VOCs. Reduction in anthropogenic NOx emissions will continue to be effective for reducing regional ozone concentrations Organic carbon as the most important PM 2.5 component Contributions of biogenic VOC emissions to PM 2.5 formation are simulated to be more important in the future Regionally the Eastern US benefits more than the rest of the regions Emission controls have larger impact than climate change

24 Future plans Uncertainties in regional air quality and its sensitivities due to climate change uncertainties Acknowledgement This work was supported by the US EPA for STAR grant RD

25 Supporting materials

26 E C EoEo CoCo CpCp EpEp p o + + EE ∆C∆C DDM Brute Force (BF): S = ∆C / ∆E Decoupled Direct Method (DDM): S =  C /  E

27 NO 2 _ 2001 NO 2 _ 2050 NO 2 _ NO 2 _ 2001

28 NO x _Jun 2001 NO x _Jun 2050 VOC_Jun 2001 VOC_Jun 2050 Emissions

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30 M8hO3 (%)PM 2.5 (%)SO 4 (%)NO 3 (%)NH 4 (%)OC (%) np np np np np np West Plains Midwest NorthEast SouthEast US np: Emission Inventory 2001, Climate 2050

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32 SO 4 - _ 2001 SO 4 - _ 2050 SO 4 - _ SO 4 - _ 2001

33 EC_ 2001 OC_ 2050 OC_ 2001 EC_ 2050

34

35 The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources(A1B) The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines

36 The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population that peaks in midcentury and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels


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