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I NDEPENDENT W EALTH M ANAGEMENT Client Name Market Analysis / Fourth Quarter 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "I NDEPENDENT W EALTH M ANAGEMENT Client Name Market Analysis / Fourth Quarter 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 I NDEPENDENT W EALTH M ANAGEMENT Client Name Market Analysis / Fourth Quarter 2014

2 4Q 14 Market Review 2014  Large-cap stocks have experienced an unusually strong and long-lasting period of gains.  The S&P 500 rose almost 14% and avoided even a modest 10% “correction” for the third year in a row.  Developed international stocks lost nearly 6% and emerging-markets stocks were flat. These returns reflect the significant headwind presented by the strengthening U.S. dollar.  Contrary to expectations, the 10-year Treasury yield declined further and bond prices rose. The investment-grade bond index was up nearly 6% for the year and municipal bonds also fared well. Credit- sensitive sectors such as high-yield and floating-rate loans lagged. Market Analysis 4Q2014 2

3 4Q 14 Asset Class Returns Through 12/31/2014 Past performance may not be indicative of future returns. 3 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4 4Q 14 The Dollar Rally Negatively Impacted Foreign Stock Returns  While the U.S. ended its QE purchases in late 2014, Europe seems set to embark on their own version of QE and are implementing accommodative monetary policies in an effort to support growth and prevent deflation  This has resulted in historic interest rate differentials and a rally in the U.S. dollar, now at an eight-year high as of Dec. 31  A stronger dollar reduces returns on investments denominated in foreign currencies Market Analysis 4Q2014 4

5 4Q 14 Despite the Recent Outperformance of U.S. Stocks it is Unwise to Extrapolate Performance 5 Market Analysis 4Q2014

6 4Q 14 Stock Markets Go Through Cycles And It’s Impossible To Predict Which Market Will Outperform and More Importantly Get The Timing Right 6 Market Analysis 4Q2014

7 4Q 14 Rising Wages Would be Healthy for the Economy but Could Have Negative Implications for Profit Margins and Earnings Growth 7 Market Analysis 4Q2014

8 4Q 14 The Long-Term Case For Global Equity Exposure Remains Compelling 8 Market Analysis 4Q2014

9 4Q 14 Contrary to Expectations, Long-Term Interest Rates Declined in 2014 While Short-Term Rates Increased 9 Market Analysis 4Q2014

10 4Q 14 The U.S. Economy Appears to be in Good Shape at Least in the Near Term 10 Market Analysis 4Q2014

11 4Q 14 Corporate Profit Margins Are Near Historically High Levels 11 Market Analysis 4Q2014

12 4Q 14 Europe Continues to Fight Deflationary Headwinds Market Analysis 4Q2014 12

13 4Q 14 Despite The Poor Economic Backdrop, European Stocks Look Attractive Relative to U.S. Larger-Cap Stocks  Our expected returns for European stocks relative to U.S. stocks are higher across our scenarios while having similar downside risk  European companies are currently under- earning relative to what we think is their longer- term normalized earnings power in large part due to the challenging economic conditions in the Eurozone  The risk of deflation has been somewhat discounted in European stock prices, but not enough to warrant adding to them at this point  If deflation were to take hold in Europe as it did in Japan for many years, European stocks may have significant downside Market Analysis 4Q2014 13

14 4Q 14 Emerging-Markets Stocks Offer Higher Return Potential But There Could Be Greater Shorter- Term Downside Risk  Emerging markets have continued to face shorter term (though intermittent) headwinds  E.g., the slowdown of growth in China and the adjustment to more normal levels of interest rates  These recent events have not undermined the longer term positive investment thesis for emerging markets.  We believe quality active managers can add a lot of value in this region through differentiation amongst countries and individual companies Market Analysis 4Q2014 14

15 4Q 14 Global Central Banks Continue to Influence Financial Markets and Remain a Source of Uncertainty Going Forward Market Analysis 4Q2014 15

16 4Q 14 Oil Prices Have Fallen Nearly 50% From Their June Highs Market Analysis 4Q2014 16

17 4Q 14 Our Economic Scenarios Reflect a More Positive Outlook Market Analysis 4Q2014 17

18 4Q 14 Asset Class Return Estimates Reflect a Wide Range of Outcomes –And Our Portfolio Positioning Seeks to Balance the Extremes Market Analysis 4Q2014 18

19 4Q 14 Estimated Asset Class Returns Across Our Scenarios Market Analysis 4Q2014 19

20 4Q 14 S&P 500 5-Year Return Estimates Under Each Scenario Market Analysis 4Q2014 20

21 4Q 14 Additional Disclosure Disclosures: This document has been provided to you as a response to an unsolicited specific request and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The factual information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to its accuracy and is not to be regarded as a representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor should the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. We are not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. We are not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in its presentation thereof. This document is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered and it is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. There is a risk of substantial loss associated with trading commodities, futures, options, derivatives and other financial instruments. Before trading, investors should carefully consider their financial position and risk tolerance to determine if the proposed trading style is appropriate. Investors should realize that when trading futures, commodities, options, derivatives and other financial instruments one could lose the full balance of their account. It is also possible to lose more than the initial deposit when trading derivatives or using leverage. All funds committed to such a trading strategy should be purely risk capital. Market Analysis 4Q2014 21

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