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Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size, and Impact Sanjay. V. Khare Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606

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Presentation on theme: "Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size, and Impact Sanjay. V. Khare Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606"— Presentation transcript:

1 Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size, and Impact Sanjay. V. Khare Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH Acknowledgements Funding: NSF, DARPA, DOE, WPAFB, PVIC from Sate of Ohio, Data and Slides: Gratitude and thanks to many fellow peakists Presentation: My student Shandeep Voggu

2 -- 3 Ohio Universities: –University of Toledo –Ohio State University –Bowling Green State University –4 Ohio Not-for-Profit Organizations: –Battelle Memorial Institute –Green Energy Ohio –Edison Materials Technology Center –Honda OSU Partnership –12 Ohio Companies: –Owens Corning –Pilkington –SSOE –Solar Fields –Midwest Optoelectronics –Innovative Thin Films –LakeShore Cryotronics –Decker Homes –Advanced Distributed Generation –Metamateria Partners –NewCyte –Cornerstone Research Group The PVIC Proposal Team: Co-PI's, Rob Collins (UT) & Bob Davis (OSU) SolarFields Honda-OSUPartnershipProgram PVIC: Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization

3 Financial overview of PVIC request (three years): capital funds$11 M UT$5.1M OSU3.5M BGSU2.4M operating funds$7.6 M UT$4.24M OSU3.27M BGSU0.09M Sustainability Goal: continue innovation growth with operating fund revenue growing from $2.5 M/yr Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization PVIC: Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization

4 Four Distinct Crises ProblemImminenceImpactAwareness I Global Warming Approaching (5 to 10 years) GRADUAL over 10 – 100+ years HIGH II Peak Production Liquid Fuels Now (-3 to 5 years) CATASTROPIC Undertanding is POOR III Peak Production Total Energy Approaching (10 to 15 years) CATASTROPIC Understanding is POOR IV Peak Other Materials (food, top soil, fertile land, H 2 O, P, U, Au) Now (0 to 5 years) CATASTROPIC Can be exacerbated by I - III INCREASING

5 PEAK OIL (and the unfolding energy crisis) -What is Peak Oil? -What are the consequences? -What can we do about it?

6 Fuel Prices Yesterday Today … Tomorrow?

7 Oil originates from the decomposition of microorganisms that got buried under geologic formations in the sea millions of years ago. In some cases the sea retreated, which explains why oil is also found on land.

8 -Oil was a gift from nature. -It took millions of years to produce -When it’s gone, it’s gone forever

9 Before the first oil well was dug in Pennsylvania in 1859, Nature had made about two trillion barrels of oil and scattered it unevenly around the world. By 2006 we’ve used up about 0.96 trillion. In other words we’re near the half-way point. “Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage”, Kenneth S. Deffeyes

10 An oil well isn’t like a car’s fuel tank With a car you can drive at full speed until the moment you run out of fuel. That’s because your tank is a hollow cavity. The fuel fills the bottom of the tank and there’s nothing preventing it from being pumped out. 0 time Gasoline use

11 But an oil well isn’t a hollow cavity It’s a large deposit of stones or sandstone sandwiched between two layers of impervious rock. The hollow spaces between the stones or sand are filled with thick and viscous oil. A pipe is lowered into the mixture of oil and stones or sand and the oil is slowly pumped up. It takes time for oil to ooze from zones of high concentration to the zone of low concentration near the pipe. Click

12 In order to extract the oil from an oil field, a large number of wells are drilled.

13 An oil field empties rapidly at the start and yields lots of oil. Then the flow slows down gradually. Towards the end the flow eases to a trickle. An oil field yields its contents over the years, something like this.

14 Mid point 2 nd half When you plot the production of an aggregate of oil fields, it approximates a bell curve Top of the curve 1 st half 0 time Gasoline use Contrast with car fuel tank

15 …and from then on, oil production will decline year after year… The top of the bell curve is what petroleum experts refer to as the oil peak or peak oil. Remember that we’ve used up almost half of the world’s oil. When we reach the half-way point on a bell curve, we embark upon the decline.

16 The Hubbert Peak In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models, predicted that the oil extraction for the US lower 48 states would peak in 1970

17 Many oil fields, countries, and oil companies have already peaked. The US peaked in of 68 oil producing countries are in decline.

18 Oil discoveries in the US peaked - then 40 years later production peaked Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000 The US lower 48 states

19 World Oil: Discoveries follow same pattern as US production

20 If the world follows the US pattern: Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist … the world would peak soon

21 And Prices are Spiking

22 Energy Return On Energy Invested It refers to the ratio of: The amount of energy spent on getting the fuel: exploration, drilling, pumping, transportation and refining The amount of energy in the fuel: Either gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc. AND (EROEI) “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

23 Energy Return On Energy Invested Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1 In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1 Now (2005) it’s about 10 to 1 The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1 “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg is diminishing as we resort to going after the hard-to-get oil:

24 Net Surplus Energy (NSE) TM = Total mass of energy providing material e.g., oil, coal, gas, wind turbine, PV modules EPM= Energy produced per unit mass NSE= TM X EPM (Naive Calculation) Correct Calculation EROEI= Energy Returned on Energy Invested = NSE = TM x EPM x EROEI = TM x EPM x We are running out of both TM and EROEI

25 If the world follows the US pattern: Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist …the world would peak soon

26 There Are No More Giant Oil Fields Being Discovered In spite of advanced exploration technology we are finding smaller and smaller oil fields 4 fields (giants) out of 4000 produce 10% of crude today They are all in decline! 125 of 4000 total produce 50% of crude today!

27 …for each barrel of oil that is being discovered We’re consuming 4 barrels… “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

28 Exploration doesn’t pay anymore In 2003 oil companies spent $8 billion on exploration and discovered $4 billion in new reserves.* * Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y. Times, 25 Mar 2005 ** John S. Herold consulting firm Since 2000, the cost of finding and developing new sources of oil has risen about 15% annually.

29 There’s no more spare capacity in the world supply Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar Spare capacity = how much extra oil can be produced within 30 days notice and maintained for 90 days

30 Spurious OPEC Reserve Revisions

31 Peak Total Energy Total Energy Use, 1965 to 2050, (Courtesy: Paul Chefurka)

32 Summary about Supply We will soon reach peak oil in (-1 to 5 years) After that we will have less energy for transportation every year than the previous year. This will go on indefinitely! Net total surplus energy for all uses will peak in 10 to 20 years After that we will have less energy every year than the previous year. This will go on indefinitely!

33 PEAK OIL Part 2 Part 2 -What are the consequences? -Extremely Serious!

34 We will soon reach the point where we can’t pump out enough to keep up with demand [Even if demand is constant!]. Then we go into PERMANENT, IRREVERSIBLE decline!

35 Oil is so versatile… The petrochemical industry can refine oil into many different fuels and products. Gas Naphtha Gasoline Kerosene Diesel Lubricants

36 Including plastics, textiles, pharmaceuticals, paints, dies, asphalt No easy scalable substitute for oil

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39 Tourism only exists because cheap oil is available

40 Impact: Economic, Social and Cultural Growth Economics Industries –Tourism –Entertainment (movies in theaters, sports, theme parks, shopping) –Restaurants –Transportation (cars, trucks, oil-ships vs. electric (trains and cars), sail- ships) –Banking –Finance –Housing (Suburban long commute vs. urban walking) –Farming, Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Lumbering, Energy equipment Family Structure –Grandparent-Parent-Child relationship –Husband-Wife relationship –Neighbor-Neigbor relationship (less house mobility) ==> Steady or Shrinking Economy

41 Resource Wars for Oil

42 Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe, and it requires the equivalent of three or four tons of TNT per acre for a modern American farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1 Fossil Fuel and Agriculture 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, Mr. Manning was referring to the growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.

43 Fossil Fuel and Agriculture On average, the food industry uses 10 calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1 calorie of food. For pork, it’s 68 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. For beef, it’s 35 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. 1 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

44 Population First Oil Well ? OIL (1857)

45 PEAK OIL Part 3 Part 3 -What can we do about it?

46 Is there an easy solution? No, not in reality. Conservation is a partial solution. Alternative fuels (solar, wind, geothermal) are likely to provide help but not for transport. New technology like battery-operated cars are likely to help a little only in the long run (> 20 years). Demand Reduction: We may need to unwind good portion of globalization; go back to simpler life styles, technologies that worked before.

47 Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between energy use (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human Development Index (2000). (Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002) Correct definition of a good life Less material consumption More meaningful relationships with humans, plants, animals and location.

48 Mitigation Type of Effort Importance Conservation and efficiency, personal and societalHigh Rapid deployment of existing technology, public transport, electric-transport, wind, solar-heat and photovoltaic, geothermal High Raising awareness by scientists and engineers of locals, media and policy makers High Applied engineering research Medium term (5 – 10 years) Fundamental research done today will have scaled impact after 20 years Long Term (10 – 20 years)

49 Most important step A Depletion Protocol to cut imports to match depletion rate Will avoid wars

50 Priorities (USA) -Tackle population growth -Massive public education for reduction in demand (targets of 50 to 80% per capita in 10 years) - Stop corn ethanol immediately -World War II type effort for energy conservation in homes and buildings, new solid state lighting, CAFE standards -World War II type effort for car and truck batteries, solar, wind, geothermal, and wave energy -Greater use of arable land for growing crops such as oilseeds, willow for wood pellets, forest generation -Buying locally produced goods where possible

51 Battery Materials for Transport Material Power Density Total Energy / (unit mass) Material Peak Production Li ion (Li 2 CO 3 )High Unknown Zebra (NaMCl)LowHighUnknown Lead AcidHighLowUnknown Ultracapacitor (BaTiO 3 ) High Unknown Others (NaS)High Unknown

52 What can I do now? Work on: –Getting educated yourself first –Reducing your liquid fuels consumption by 50% to 80% –Educating family, friends, co-workers, policy-makers –Contacting your local, state, and federal representatives –Trying to reduce consumption in your line of work –Changing careers from energy consuming to energy producing industries –Participating and influencing the media Teach children about these issues to continue dialogue into future generations

53 Your actions will make the future If we do nothing Techno-fantasy led techno-fixes with no basis in reality If we work very hard for 25 years!

54 Thank You References: Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; By Kenneth S. Deffeyes Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil; By David Goodstein Twilight in the Desert; by Matthew R. Simmons


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