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Ira A. FULTON Schools of Engineering Global Challenges in Industrial Engineering and Operations Management for the 21 st Century Ronald G. Askin, Professor.

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Presentation on theme: "Ira A. FULTON Schools of Engineering Global Challenges in Industrial Engineering and Operations Management for the 21 st Century Ronald G. Askin, Professor."— Presentation transcript:

1 Ira A. FULTON Schools of Engineering Global Challenges in Industrial Engineering and Operations Management for the 21 st Century Ronald G. Askin, Professor and Director School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Arizona State University Tempe, AZ USA

2 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Overview On-going global manufacturing and economic activity trends Where US manufacturing research and activity are headed What are the implications/opportunities for IEs globally? Where is IE’s future

3 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Arizona and ASU

4 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Shaping the World Politics and Cultures Environment and Nature Economics and Ingenuity

5 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Manufacturing Trends and Status Today Global Production/Supply Networks Transit costs and speeds changing slowly Raw material availability, labor costs, markets vary globally Information access is level; education becoming level Transition from Mechanical/Physical to Electrical/Info Dominance Green for Sustainability (Financial and Environmental) Health applications are growing markets Nanomaterials are solutions on the horizon Manufacturing Creates Wealth! Services fleetingly facilitate life but limit wage growth due to standardization, scalability and automation difficulty.

6 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Globalization!

7 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Fab Intel Wafer Fab and Test/Assembly Facilities Assembly/Test Region Revenue Asia/Pacific51% Americas20% Europe19% Japan10% It’s Markets, Resources and Economics

8 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 WTO: Peace and Prosperity Through Cooperative Commerce 153 Member Countries, 30 Accessions (in process) in 2009 WTO: A system of trading rules and forum for intergovernmental negotiation

9 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Why is US IE Changing So Much So Fast? Thomas L. Friedman, Hot, Flat and Crowded -Level playing field through logistics and global connections (web) -American expectations for good wages, clean jobs/environment - High competition outsourcing, off-shoring Opportunity of new science – bio, info, nano Growth of service expenditures (health care, finance) Dragged along by our engineering counterparts

10 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 But are We Changing? Of Top 20 Ranked Schools Industrial and Systems EngineeringIndustrial and Operations Engineering Industrial Engineering and Operations ResearchIndustrial and Manufacturing Engineering Management Science and EngineeringIndustrial Engineering and Management Science Operations Research and Information EngineeringIndustrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial Engineering and Operations ResearchIndustrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering Industrial Engineering Operations Research/Industrial Engineering Industrial, Systems and Operations Engineering IIE Members vote Down Name Change in 2009

11 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Industrial Engineering in the US – Past and Present New Markets Outside of Manufacturing Healthcare Homeland Security Finance Logistics Info Services Entrepreneur We’ve grown out but have we grown up?

12 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 The Scientist/Engineer Today The Doctor The Civil Engineer CAT ScanPET Scan Realtime tracking (Cameras, GPS) Embedded structural health monitoring/control

13 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Revolutionary Change in Technology Moore’s Law Human Genome Decoding n 1990: $3B, 13 yrs n 2009: $350k, 13 weeks n 2015: $300, 13 min. Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965

14 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 The IE Today Subject to: Methods have stagnated. Remaining traditional Manufacturing opportunities in US are limited.

15 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 IEs Improve Integrated Systems How must faster/better/cheaper can we define, model, and improve a system today than in 1979? Have we changed at the same rate as others over the past 30 years? While the world became a ubiquitous information, global society, IE found better icons for flowcharts! Today’s systems are complex and integrated. Why aren’t we flourishing most in complex environments?

16 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Where Could/Should We Be? Virtual Reality Models of Systems – miniature Ron sits on the part and flows through the machine and plant Virtual Reality Models of datasets with automated coloring, sizing for outliers Automated Simulation/Optimization Models from Capital Asset files Automated model decomposers, data cleaners and preprocessors Full data history on shop and order status with real-time planning updates – customers manage their orders. We’re too Cheap!

17 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 The Prevailing Business Attitude Phil Knight, Founder of Nike “There is no value in making things any more. The value is added by careful research, by innovation, and by marketing.” Deputy Director, DARPA 7/19/2010 “To innovate we must make.”

18 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 World Gross Domestic Product Data Source:

19 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 GDP – Asia

20 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 GDP per Capita-Global Wealth Distribution

21 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 GDP/Capita – Asia and US

22 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 GDP Growth Rate: Current GDP/1970 GDP Asia Rising, Europe Falling

23 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Export Dependence by Region Asia growing rapidly

24 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Export Importance by Country

25 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Trends in Interdependency

26 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Import Percentages by Country

27 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Import Export Growth Rates Central America Gaining Net Surplus Asia Expanding Activity Rapidly

28 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Observations  US has room to consume more of the world’s goods  US spends most on services, not products  Central America and Europe highly dependent on trade  US, Japan and South America too insular?  Japan continuing to wane  Growth linked to global trade, particularly for small economies

29 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 What’s the Role and Impact of Manufacturing?

30 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Global Manufacturing Growth Europe, No. America losing ground; Asia gaining

31 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Manufacturing Activity by Country

32 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Manufacturing Importance by Region No./So. America, Europe losing ground World relatively constant Asia Gaining

33 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Manufacturing Production per Capita Surprising relative growth consistency except Africa

34 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Manufacturing per Capita by Country

35 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Population Growth Rates Despite problems, Africa is growing fastest

36 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Population Growth Rates – Focus on Asia

37 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 The Rapidly Changing Landscape Companies brace for end of cheap made-in-China era By ELAINE KURTENBACH, AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach, Ap Business Writer – Thu Jul 8, 12:57 pm ET SHANGHAI – Factory workers demanding better wages and working conditions are hastening the eventual end of an era of cheap costs that helped make southern coastal China the world's factory floor. A series of strikes over the past two months have been a rude wakeup call for the many foreign companies that depend on China's low costs to compete overseas, from makers of Christmas trees to manufacturers of gadgets like the iPad. Where once low-tech factories and scant wages were welcomed in a China eager to escape isolation and poverty, workers are now demanding a bigger share of the profits. The government, meanwhile, is pushing foreign companies to make investments in areas it believes will create greater wealth for China, like high technology. shifting production to the inland areas …Massive investments in roads, railways and other infrastructure are reducing the isolation of the inland cities.world's factory floor Maybe, but the growing market is still there!

38 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 US Industry Activity – Percent of GDP* * US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Where will these lines go from here?

39 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 US Manufacturing Future Focus on design (shorter product life cycles, more customized demands as choices proliferate) Focus on green manufacturing (sustainability) Focus on low volume, high precision, high tech products Focus on developing and using nanomaterial processes – atomic scale layered composites Focus on renewable energy power sources Focus on defense industry High volume only when automated (low volume and product flexibility relative to labor at least for awhile longer)

40 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 World wide Opportunities – Successful Approaches (Business 101) Identify competitive advantage (low cost of labor, primary materials) Identify market needs and means Ensure adequate infrastructure Find investors – gov’t, banks, parent companies Focus on a core automotive parts assembly in Mexico first, then build up to aerospace parts Low Cost Assembly originally in Asia (Is Africa the future?) Global Production  Global Wealth  Logistics Dominance

41 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Where Do Manufacturers Build? Close to Raw Material and Parts Suppliers Close to Customers Adequate Labor Supply and Low Labor Rate Adequate Transportation Network (Air, Rail, Shipping, Roads) Favorable Community/Tax Situation Access to Utilities (power, water) Possible risk mitigation driven facility distribution Limited cultural/political hurdles

42 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 US National Academy of Engineering Grand Challenges n Web page: n View video (6 min)  Make solar energy economical – less than 1% today but large potential  Provide energy from fusion – develop scalable, envir. benign method  Provide access to clean water – affordable and available for all  Reverse engineer the brain – combining engineering and neuroscience  Advance personalized learning – speeds, styles, content for individual  Develop carbon sequestration methods – capture and store excess CO 2  Restore and improve urban infrastructure – better design and materials for transportation, water, waste, power, etc. for livable cities 14 Grand Challenges for the 21 st Century

43 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 NAE Grand Challenges cont.  Engineer the tools of scientific discovery – blending of engr. & science to explain nature  Advance health informatics – better everyday care and preventing bio attacks/pandemics  Prevent nuclear terror – protect society from increasing risks and proliferation  Engineer better medicines – body sensing, personalized drugs, delivery methods  Enhance virtual reality – for training, treatment, communication, and entertainment  Manage the nitrogen cycle – better fertilization techniques and recapture/recycle  Secure cyberspace – protect essential infrastructure

44 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 IIE Fellows: Grand Challenges for Industrial Engineering  Reengineering Health Care Delivery  Creating a Technology Oriented Culture  Engineering a Sustainable Society  Developing Better Decision Tools  Mitigating and Responding to Disasters  Point of Use Manufacturing  Infrastructure  Food Security Fellows Report:

45 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Reengineering Healthcare Delivery: An Integrated Approach  Demographics: Young and poor are fastest growing segment, U.S. and worldwide  Number of senior citizens growing fast (and baby boomers won’t go gently into the night)  Healthcare is largest U.S. industry  Health care inflation rate 3 times overall rate  Woeful under investment in info technology  Excessive waste  Medical info and treatment increasingly technology- enabled The Problem

46 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Reengineering Health Care  Individual care needed – risk analysis, modeling/mining genomic info, personalized treatment scripts, safety/quality in individual led treatment  System improvements needed – QC, logistics, info technology, provider collaboration hierarchically and vertically, financial system and models  Science advances needed – treatment protocols, data mining/bioimaging, human sensing The IE Role

47 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Creating a Technology Oriented Society  Body of tech knowledge growing rapidly  System size and complexity growing rapidly  (U.S.) relatively wealthy – life is easy  Many of brightest youth pursue pursue law, business  U.S. youths perform poorly in math/science The Problem

48 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Creating a Technology Oriented Society  Get the word out about opportunities and need  Optimize available human resource  Jazz up what we do The IE Role

49 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Engineering a Sustainable Society  U.S. population will double this century  World population will more than double  Over 50% now live in urban areas  Wealth increases ecological footprint  Climate change will change geographic resource availability The Problem

50 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Sustainable Society  Need sustainable transportation systems  Efficient/effective governmental services – judicial, social security, police/fire  Designing scalable urban environments  Designing efficient community structures connecting urban (production, consumption) to rural (raw materials) The IE Role

51 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Develop Better Decision Making Tools The Problem  Modeled entities are growing in size  Models are expensive to build, hard to sell  Models are limited in scope, life-span  Organizations have vertical and horizontal boundaries (multiple constituencies)

52 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Better Decision Making Tools  Better, more fully deployed, and relevant sensors  Models to fuse, validate and evaluate data/information  Improved models of human behavior  Enrich “Rational” models with subjective behavior  Risk analysis and interaction models of tightly coupled massive technology-oriented systems and their failure modes/scenarios  Rapid modeling and computational tools  Scalable, maintainable, rapidly developable models  More understandable models/More valid models  Human embedded modeling paradigms and tools (immersion and visualization) The IE Role

53 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Mitigating and Responding to Disaster  Natural and man-made disasters are happening more frequently  Societal expectation is for safer lives, quicker emergency care  Larger urban regions, tightly-coupled specialized lives, and climate change lead to more susceptible systems and larger scale impacts The Problem

54 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Mitigating Disaster  Optimal deployment of detection technologies (natural and competitive games)  Optimization of emergency response resource positioning and deployment  Managing transition from search to rescue to recovery and care  Integrated communications, logistics, and decision making  Real-time decision making with various info levels (resilient planning and control)  Resilient system(s) design  Optimal deployment and use of sensing technology and risk assessment models The IE Role

55 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Point of Use Manufacturing  Demand for Customized Products  Demand for Sustainable Manufacturing/Distribution The Problem

56 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Point of Use Manufacturing  Distributed (home) or neighborhood manufacturing  New process development for solid free form fabrication  Development of nano and mega technology for point of use production  Design of infrastructure for material delivery, user-driven design “It’s Not Easy Being Green” The IE Role

57 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Infrastructure Construction  Time to revolutionize infrastructure construction (progress has lagged)  Construction inefficient and quality variable The Problem

58 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Infrastructure Construction  Take advantage of advances in computing, robotics, materials, and management science to reduce cost, time, injuries, environmental impact  Design smarter structures  Determine optimal investments for infrastructure $  Allow maintainable, culturally appropriate, ergonomically safe construction methods and system designs  Why Can’t we manufacture structures in factories for field assembly with higher quality and productivity? The IE Role

59 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Safe, Available, Affordable Food & Water  Population growth, changing weather patterns, political strife, man-made biohazards, natural biohazards threaten worldwide  Current cultivation practices not sustainable and use non- renewable resources  Profits vs. Politics vs. Social Good  Standard procedures, testing and traceability needed across food supply chain  Procedures for local food production and security needed The Problem

60 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January Safe, Available Food and Water  Develop traceable supply and distribution networks (RFID, imaging, procedures, etc.)  Design and deploy maintainable solutions  Perhaps assist in governmental planning for development The IE Role

61 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 What Constitutes IE?  Manufacturing planning (process planning, tooling design/maintenance)  Production operations (planning, scheduling, quality assurance, material handling)  Engineering management (engineering economics, product services, facilities design/mgmt., distribution/logistics)  System modeling (information systems/flow, modeling and simulation)  Ergonomics/Human Factors IE Today IE Tomorrow Additions? Deletions?

62 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Industrial Engineer 21 st Century We are the Information Preparer We are the Data Hunter/Gatherer

63 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Conclusions  We are needed but we must Wander or Wither  We must Revolutionize on a Bigger, Broader, Faster Scale  We must integrate our strengths – humans, math models, computing, big picture/multiobjective comfort level, efficiency mindset

64 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 The Big Picture

65 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Questions/Comments/Complaints? Ron Askin School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering

66 School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Kuala Lumpur, January 2011 Futurizing the BSIE Curriculum  Greater emphasis on global cultures  Learning to serve on multidisciplinary, multicultural, politically pressured teams  Must bring unique value to the team (Systems thinking, Project Management, Multiobjective Dec. Making, Dealing with Complexity & Uncertainty)  Dynamic, Nonlinear, Continuous Large-Scale Modeling (Not just Discrete Event Simulation and Desk Top LP)  Understanding Human Behavior and Preferences (Beyond HF)  Risk Management and Mitigation as an integral activity  Broader Science Knowledge (Biology, Ecology)  Sophisticated Information Technology Users (Sensor Capability & Network Design; Data  Information  Decision Systems)  Systems Modeling of Urban Environments, Infrastructure  Broader Mindset of Major Societal Impact and Socio-Technical Problem Solving (not just making widgets) What’s Your Ten?


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