Presentation on theme: "Capital budgeting and valuation with leverage"— Presentation transcript:
1Capital budgeting and valuation with leverage Chapter 18
2outline Focus on constant debt to equity ratio Present WACC valuation methodWACC/APV linkProject based WACCLevering up and WACC
3Capital budgeting procedure Remember the steps we followEstimate the incremental cash flows generated by the projectDiscount the free cash flow based on the project’s cost of capital to determine the NPVHow to estimate the appropriate cost of capital?How does the financing decision affect the free cash flows and the project’s cost of capital?
4Some simplifying assumptions To lay out the method of valuation we require three simplifying assumptionsThe project has average risk (same as the firm’s)The firm’s debt-to-equity ratio is fixed over timeCorporate taxes are the only imperfectionWe will simplify some assumptions later on
5rwacc = E/(E+D) rE + D/(E+D) rD(1-τc) The WACC methodTo calculate project valueCalculate project’s (unlevered) FCFssee chapter 7Discount using WACCrwacc = E/(E+D) rE + D/(E+D) rD(1-τc)VL = PV(FCF’s, rwacc)
8Using WACC an Example Example page 577 Avco, Inc. is a manufacturer of custom packaging products and is considering a new line of packaging (RFX) that includes an embedded radio-frequency identification tag. This improved technology will become absolute after 4 years. In the meanwhile it is expected to increase sales by $60 million per year. Manufacturing costs and operating expenses are expected to be $25 million and $9 million respectively per year.
9Using WACC an Example Example continued Developing the product will require upfront R&D and marketing expenses of $6.67 million together with an investment of $24 million in equipment. The equipment will be obsolete in four years and will depreciate via straight-line method over that period. Avco bills its customers in advance, and it expects no net working capital requirements for the project. Avco’s tax rate is 40%.
10First step: predicting FCF’s This implies the following steam of expected future cash flows
11Calculating WACCThe market risk of RFX is expected to be similar to that for the company’s other lines of business.We will use WACC to discount the cash flows generated from the projectWe need information on the Avco’s capital structureThis can be found in the firm’s balance sheet
14Using the APV method when D/E ratio is fixed See chapter 15 for the case of fixed $DAlternative method of valuationFirst, calculate the unlevered value VU by discounting FCF’s using rU. With constant D/E ratio we can estimate rU by:Second, calculate the value of the interest tax shield. With constant D/E ratio we discount the tax shield with rate rUAPV: VL = APV = VU + PV(int. tax shield)rU = (D/(E+D))rD + (E/(D+E))rE
17The unlevered value of the project The RFX project has initial investment of $28 million and 4 annual FCF’s of $18 millionWe discount FCF’s using Avco’s unlevered cost of capital (with target leverage ratio)
19Financing the project with fixed D/E ratio The value of leveraged project (in $millions):To maintain the ratio D/E=1time1234VLt61.2447.4232.6416.86time1234Debt30.6223.7116.328.43Equity
20Finding expected interest payments Given debt levels (in $millions):We calculate interest payments and tax shield with tax rate of 40% and interest of 6%time1234Debt30.6223.7116.328.43time1234interest1.841.420.970.505Tax shield0.730.570.390.20
22One more exampleExample – Avco is considering an acquisition of another firm in the same industry. Expected FCF’s will increase by $3.8 t=1, and will grow at annual rate of 3% from then on. The purchase price is $80 million will be financed with $50 million in new debt initially. Avco maintain a constant D/E ratio for the acquisition.
26Project-based cost of capital how to find WACC of project? Up to now we assumed that the project is in the same line of business as the rest of the firm and that it is financed while maintaining the same capital structureThis allowed us to assume that the cost of capital of the project equals the firm’s WACCSometimes these assumptions do not applyConsider GEGE Commercial Finance, GE Aviation, GE Healthcare, GE Energy, NBC Universal, among others
27Project-based cost of capital Comparable firmsFirmprojectrU (comp. firms) = rU (project)
28Project-based cost of capital Calculating WACC for projectIdentify comparable firms in the same industry of the project (comparable risk)Calculate average unleveraged cost of capital of comparable firmsUse this as the project’s unleveraged cost of capitalGiven debt cost of capital you can calculate the project equity cost of capitalThen, given tax rate and firm’s capital structure you can calculate WACC for the project
29Project-based cost of capital Numerical exampleSuppose now that Avco launches a new plastics manufacturing division with different market risk than its main packaging businessWACC of Avco is no longer relevant to usInstead, we estimate the unlevered cost of capital (rU) of other plastic manufacturersRemember this represents the underlying risk of the firm’s assets before we account for leverage effects
30Step one: calculate unlevered cost of capital for comparable firms You identify two single-division plastics firms that have similar business risk
31Step two: calculate equity cost of capital for project Back to our projectRemember, our project will be financed with debt and equity and therefore we will benefit from the interest tax shieldSuppose Avco maintains its capital structure (equal mix of debt and equity) when adopting the project, and that it will continue to borrow at 6%Then, Avco’s equity cost of capital is
32Step 3: calculate WACC for project Once we have the equity cost of capital, the debt cost of capital, and marginal tax rate we can compute the project’s WACC
34Levering up and WACCWhat happens to WACC when the firm increases leverage?Example page 592Consider a firm with debt-to-equity ratio of 25%, debt cost of capital of 6.67%, equity cost of capital of 12%, and tax rate of 40%Its current WACC is,
35rWACC (new) = 0.5 x 12% + 0.5 x 6.67% x (0.6) = 9% Levering up and WACCExample continuedNow suppose that the firm changes its debt-to-equity ratio to 50%What is wrong with the calculation:rWACC (new) = 0.5 x 12% x 6.67% x (0.6) = 9%
36Levering up and WACC Two things can happen when levering up First with higher leverage payments to equity holders bear more riskSecond with higher leverage the required rate of return on the firm’s debt by investors might increaseSuppose that now debt holders require 7.34% instead of 6.67%To recalculate the firm’s WACC lets go back and calculate the firm’s unlevered cost of capital