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Chemicals Trends Report Dr Moncef Hadhri: Survey date: April2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Chemicals Trends Report Dr Moncef Hadhri: Survey date: April2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Chemicals Trends Report Dr Moncef Hadhri: Survey date: April2011

2 Chemicals Trends Report: Top Indicators Contact: Dr. Moncef HADHRI Phone: : Cefic Industrial Policy Department Ø The Cefic Chemicals Trends report focuses on the short- term analysis of the European Chemical industry. The scope of the survey covers the economic activity, industrial growth, business climate, and sectoral performance of chemicals. To ensure a high degree of data integrity, the early indicators are updated monthly. Last update: April 2010 Ø The full Chemicals Trends Report (CTR) is exclusively distributed to Cefic members. For non-Cefic members, please contact Dr. Fabrice Tabankia for more information Phone: Ø This presentation based on official statistics of Eurostat and the European commission and Cefic Chemdata International. Please see slides 35-38on the definitions of key variables.

3 The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was broadly unchanged in the EU Source: Business and Consumer Survey Results of the European Commission (September 2010). The Economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is made up as a weighted average of five confidence indicators, industry (40%), services (30%), consumers (20%), construction (5%) and retail trade (5%)

4 In the EU, industry and services remained on an upward trend offsetting the declines observed in retail trade, construction and among consumers.

5 Sentiment in industry increased further by 0.6 points in the EU. Production expectations decreased, despite an improvement in the assessment of the level of order books

6 Ø In March, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was broadly unchanged at in the EU, while it decreased by 0.6 point to in the euro area. In the EU, industry and services remained on an upward trend offsetting the declines observed in retail trade, construction and among consumers. Ø Most Member States recorded a decline in sentiment. Among the seven largest Member States, Poland (-3.1 points), Spain (-3.0) and Germany (- 0.7) reported decreases, while the Netherlands (+3.1), the UK (+2.7) and France (+0.9) improved. Meanwhile, Italy (+0.1) remained broadly stable. The ESI is above its long-term average in five of the seven largest Member States. Poland went back to just below its long-term average, while Spain remained well below it. Ø Sentiment in industry increased further - by 0.6 points - in the EU. Production expectations decreased both in the EU and in the euro area, despite an improvement in the assessment of the level of order books and an increasing number of managers considering their stocks as not sufficient. Managers were also slightly more pessimistic about their export order books. The ESI is above its long-term average in five of the seven largest Member States

7 Ø Sentiment in services rose significantly in both the EU (+3.6) and the euro area (+1.2). Managers were especially upbeat about the evolution of demand observed in the past months, while they were more cautious about expected demand. Ø Sentiment in services rose in the EU (+0.6). Managers were more positive about expected demand but more pessimistic about demand observed in the past months. Ø Sentiment in construction decreased in both in the EU (-1.6) and the euro area (-0.8), partly offsetting the improvement registered in February. The indicator remains at very low levels in both regions. Ø Sentiment in the retail sector weakened in both the EU (-0.3) and the euro area (-1.3). Also, confidence among consumers decreased in both the EU (- 0.4) and the euro area (-0.6), reflecting more pessimism about the future general economic situation, consumers' future financial situation and their possibility to save money in the next 12 months. In contrast, consumers reported slightly decreasing unemployment fears. The ESI is above its long-term average in five of the seven largest Member States (cont’d)

8 EU chemicals: production went up in January 2011 by 7% compared to January 2010

9 EU Petrochemicals: production grew in January 2011 by 6% compared to January 2010

10 EU Polymers: production rose in January 2011 by 6.5% compared to January 2010

11 EU Basic Inorganics: production grew in January 2011 by 5.9% compared to January 2010

12 EU Specialty Chemicals: production went up in January 2011 by 3.6% compared to January 2010

13 EU Consumer Chemicals: production grew in January 2011 by 9.3% compared to January 2010

14 EU Pharmaceuticals: production grew in January 2011 by 1.1% compared to January 2010

15 EU Chemicals + Pharmaceuticals: production grew in January 2011 by 4.2% compared to January 2010

16 EU chemicals production growth by sub-sector

17 EU chemicals prices went up in January 2011 by 9.4% compared to January 2010

18 EU chemicals prices went up by 3.2% on average during the past five years ( )

19 EU chemicals prices: growth by sub-sector

20 Oil Price (Brent $/bbl): 1990-February 2011

21 Euro exchange rate: US$ per Euro (1999-Feb 2011)

22 EU chemicals: total sales went up by 17.2% in 2010 compared to 2009

23 EU chemicals: domestic sales went up by 15.9% in 2010 compared to 2009

24 EU Pharmaceuticals: total sales went up by 4.5% in 2010 compared to 2009

25 Extra-EU trade surplus up to € 47 billion in 2010 (€ 4.4 billion more than in 2009).

26 The EU increased mainly its surplus in specialty and consumer chemicals in 2010 compared to 2009

27 The EU increased mainly its surplus with Rest of Europe and Latin America

28 NAFTA Africa Rest of World Rest of Europe Asia* Source: Cefic Chemdata International Extra-EU trade surplus up to € 47 billion in 2010 (€ 4.4 billion more than in 2009). * excludes Japan & China **Latin America and the Caribbean EU chemicals trade flows in €billion: 2010 EU-27 LAC** Japan China

29 EU chemicals industry registered a significant loss in trade competitiveness (2010 vs. 2009) EU has a trade surplus but its positive competitive position weakened EU has a trade surplus and its healthy competitive position improved EU has a trade deficit and its competitive position weakened EU has a trade deficit but its weak competitive position improved Source : Cefic Chemdata international 2010 vs. 2009

30 EU chemicals industry registered a significant loss in trade competitiveness (2010 vs. 2009) (cont’d)

31 EU chemicals employment went down in Nearly 31 thousands people lost their job in 2010 compared to 2009

32 EU employment went down by 2.6% in 2010 compared to 2009.

33 Labour productivity went up in the EU chemicals industry (including pharmaceuticals) by 10.9 % in 2010 compared to 2009.

34 EU employment went down by 2.6% in 2010 compared to 2009.

35 Ø Balances: Answers obtained from the surveys are aggregated in the form of “balances”. Balances are constructed as the difference between the percentages of respondents giving positive and negative replies. The Commission calculates EU and euro-area aggregates on the basis of the national results and seasonally adjusts the balance series. Ø Composite Indicators: The balance series are then used to build composite indicators. For each surveyed sector, the Commission calculates confidence indicators as arithmetic means of answers (seasonally adjusted balances) to a selection of questions closely related to the reference variable they are supposed to track. Ø The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is made up as a weighted average of five confidence indicators, industry (40%), services (30%), consumers (20%), construction (5%) and retail trade (5%) Ø The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) is calculated in order to receive a timely composite indicator for the manufacturing sector in the euro area. The indicator uses, as input series, five balances of opinion from the industry survey: production trends in recent months, order books, export order books, stocks and production expectations. The BCI therefore deviates from the industrial confidence indicator, which is based on only three input series. Definition: Business and Consumer Survey- European Commission Economic and Financial Affairs

36 Ø 1. Industrial confidence indicator: calculated as the arithmetic average of the balances (in percentage points) of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks of finished products (the last with inverted sign). Balances are seasonally adjusted. Ø 2. Services confidence indicator: calculated as the arithmetic average of the balances (in % points) of the answers to the questions on business climate and on recent and expected evolution of demand. Balances are seasonally adjusted. Ø 3. Consumer confidence indicator: is the arithmetic average of the balances (in % points) of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households, the general economic situation, unemployment expectations (with inverted sign) and savings, all over the next 12 months. Balances are seasonally adjusted Ø 4. Retail trade confidence indicator: The retail trade confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (in percentage points) of the answers to the questions on the present and future business situation, and on stocks (the last with inverted sign). Balances are seasonally adjusted. Ø 5. Construction confidence indicator: is the arithmetic average of the balances (in % points ) of the answers to the questions on order book and employment expectations. Balances are seasonally adjusted. Definition: Confidence Indicators by sector- European Commission Economic and Financial Affairs

37 Ø Ifo World Economic Survey (WES): Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of the 4rd quarter 2010 in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Paris. Ø Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. Ø Ifo Economic Climate Indication: calculated as an arithmetic average of judgment about the present and expected economic situation. Ø The January 2011 survey received responses from 1,117 experts in 119 countries. The survey is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris (ICC). Ø A detailed regional analysis appears in the quarterly journal: CESifo World Economic Survey. This press release contains advance information on the most important results. The Ifo World Economic Survey (WES)

38 Cefic Classification using the new NACE Rev2 Code


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