Presentation on theme: "Interest Rate Monitor May 26, 2013. 2 Brief Overview Extra room available for interest rates to go up. Extra room available for interest rates to go."— Presentation transcript:
Interest Rate Monitor May 26, 2013
2 Brief Overview Extra room available for interest rates to go up. Extra room available for interest rates to go up. International MENA Region Local Economy Amman Stock Exchange Amman Stock Exchange Local Debt Monitor Local Debt Monitor Prime Lending Rates Prime Lending Rates Markets overview New and analysis US: Yields up amid signals that QE tapering coming soon Eurozone: Peripheral yields rise as Euro crisis persists Japan: High volatility in bond markets Major Indices: Down amid worries about withdrawing stimulus and China’s recovery Commodities and Currencies: Oil prices drop amid concerns on global growth Central Bank Meeting Calendar Interest Rate Forecast The Week Ahead Egypt: High inflation due to debt monetization and struggling Pound GCC News Highlights GCC interbank rates Comparative MENA Markets UK: IMF urging for less austerity China: Recovery remains fragile
4 US Treasury bond yields above 2% Treasury bonds strengthened Friday, regaining some poise after being jolted by one of the biggest price swings in months. The month long selloff sent the benchmark 10-year note's yield above 2% this past week for the first time in more than two months, enticing buying from bargain-hunting investors. Yields were still up for the week, driven by better economic data and worries that the Federal Reserve, a major buyer, could cut back its purchases in coming months. The 10-year US Treasury yield was flat at 2.01% on Friday but up 6 basis points over the week.
5 US Fed signaled that a scaling down of the QE programme has moved closer In a week of conflicting messages from the Federal Reserve that roiled financial markets, Chairman Ben Bernanke left some new clues about the central bank's plans for its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program. The Fed could take a first step toward reducing the program at one of its "next few meetings," Mr. Bernanke said, but he cautioned that he was reluctant to move prematurely or aggressively. The comments, given at a congressional hearing Wednesday, gave markets a dose of clarity for a few hours, though a subsequent release of minutes from the Fed's May 1 policy meeting added to investor anxiety about the Fed's plans. The minutes disclosed that some officials were prepared to start pulling back the program as early as the Fed's next meeting in June, though the group as a whole, too, expressed hesitance.
6 US Fed signaled that a scaling down of the QE programme has moved closer Taken together, the chairman's testimony before Congress and the minutes suggested that Fed officials aren't yet near consensus on when to begin to wind down the bond buying but that a decision appears to be approaching in the months ahead. Many Fed officials want to be more confident that the economy is improving before deciding. Nevertheless, the message suggest that a scaling- down of asset purchases is moving closer. QE tapering remains dependent on labor market conditions, especially job growth over the coming months. A continuation of the recent trend in job growth over the next few months is likely to be enough to convince the FOMC to scale down on the pace of easing.
7 Durable Goods Demand Points to Second-Half U.S. Rebound Orders for U.S. durable goods increased more than forecast in April, indicating the world’s largest economy will get a lift in the second half of the year as business investment strengthens. The Commerce Department said bookings for equipment meant to last at least three years increased 3.3% last month after dropping 5.9% in March. Gains in residential construction, growing demand for autos and the need to update equipment will probably ripple throughout manufacturing, helping the economy recover from a slowdown this quarter. At the same time, government cutbacks and cooling exports are restraining demand, which means the rebound will be slow to develop. Stocks dropped on concern an improving economy will prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to reduce record stimulus before the year is out. The U.S. economy probably cooled in the second quarter. Growth is projected at a 1.6% annualized rate, down from a 2.5% pace in the first three months of the year. GDP is estimated to grow at an average 2.4% pace in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, obstacles to even faster growth remain. The federal government is cutting outlays under the automatic budgets cuts known as sequestration, exports have cooled and American wage earners are trying to cope with an increase in the payroll tax.
8 Data out of the U.S. has been relatively upbeat New home sales edged slightly higher once again in April as the housing market continues to give a lift to the U.S. economy. New homes sold at an annual pace of 454,000 in the month, up 2% from March, and a 13% jump from the year earlier sales pace. Sales readings for the previous three months were also all revised higher. The report comes the day after the National Association of Realtors reported another rise in the pace of sales of previously-owned homes. The recovery in the housing market so far this year has been a major driver of overall economic growth, lifting not just the pace of home building but also retail sales. Near record low mortgage rates coupled with improving unemployment, a drop in foreclosures and a tight supply of homes for sale have all combined to lift overall home prices. Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturing slowed for a second straight month in May as weak overseas demand and government belt-tightening at home led to the sector's most sluggish rate of growth since October, a survey showed on Thursday. Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary, U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to a seven-month low of 51.9 in May from 52.1 the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
9 European yields rise again as data shows that eurozone crisis persists Weak eurozone economic indicators, pointed this week to further recession for the euro area combined with weak growth prospects from China, helped push yields of peripherals up as the eurozone crisis persists. Spain’s 10-year yield rose to 4.42% Friday, while Italy’s 10- year yield rose to 4.14%. Meanwhile, the Bund yield slipped 1bp on Friday but it finished the week 10bp higher at 1.43%.
10 Europe's persistent downturn is showing few signs of abating PMIs surprised positively but still point to recession The decline in business activity in the 17-nation eurozone slowed in May, but surveys published Thursday suggest the region's longest recession will extend into another quarter, a development that is likely to add to calls for further action by the European Central Bank and governments to boost growth. Markit Economics said its composite purchasing managers' index for the euro zone—a measure of activity in the services and manufacturing sectors—rose to 47.7 from 46.9 in April, a stronger outcome than that forecast by economists but still below the level of 50 that separates growth from contraction. Purchasing managers reported a 22nd successive month of decline in new orders, with the rate of deterioration accelerating for the third straight month. The eurozone economy contracted in each of the six quarters to the end of March, its longest postwar slump. The PMIs suggest that contraction may have continued into the second quarter, adding to pressure for a rethink of the euro zone's economic strategy, which in recent years has focused on cutting government spending and raising taxes in an effort to narrow wide budget deficits.
11 Eurozone recessionary threats remain elevated The European Commission, the European Union's executive body, earlier this month forecast that the euro-zone economy will contract 0.4% this year, having shrunk 0.6% in The European Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 0.5% this month had done little to improve the outlook, and the eurozone economy looked set to contract this quarter at a similar rate to the decline seen in the first three months of the year. Germany's services sector saw the steepest decline in new business since September And while new factory orders were broadly stable, new export work in Europe's biggest economy fell for the third month in a row. Private sector output in France, which slipped back into recession in the first quarter, continued to fall at a marked rate in May. Companies across manufacturing and services found no relief from the slump.
12 U.K. data this week signals that more needs to be done April's U.K. retail sales figures fell 1.3% on the month, more than expected, and was the biggest monthly drop since April Meanwhile, minutes of the BOE's most recent policy meeting showed three members of the rate-setting committee, including outgoing Governor Mervyn King, sought to extend the central bank's asset- purchase program by a further £25bn. On the other hand, inflation in the U.K. slowed in April as a fall in crude oil prices rippled through the global economy. Consumer price inflation slowed to an annual rate of 2.4% in April from 2.8% in March, lower than the 2.6% rate economists had expected. Core inflation—which excludes volatile prices for items such as energy, food and alcohol—slowed to an annual rate of 2%, the lowest level since November But the Bank of England has warned any cooling in inflation is unlikely to last a long time, meaning a squeeze on Britons' income from meager wage growth and rising prices would intensify, threatening a fledgling recovery in Britain's battered economy. The U.K. economy expanded 0.3% in the first three months of the year and the BoE expects it to grow 0.5% in the second quarter, but the squeeze on household budgets risks undermining that recovery, economists say.
13 U.K. can do more to boost economy according to IMF The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday urged the U.K. government to ease back on its austerity program to avoid inflicting long-term damage on the nation's growth prospects. Recent evidence of an upturn in activity was encouraging but the world's sixth-largest economy was still a long way from a "strong and sustainable recovery," the IMF said, following a two-week consultation with U.K. officials. "After five years of relatively weak activity, additional measures are needed to raise long-term expectations of potential growth, while rebalancing necessitates a transformation to a high- investment and more export-oriented economy," the IMF said. The IMF said that with borrowing costs very low by historical standards, the government can afford to ease back on efforts to cut its budget deficit and provide "near-term support to the economy," chiefly by bringing forward planned capital spending and offering guarantees to boost private investment. The IMF cut its forecast for U.K. growth in 2013 by 0.3% last month, citing depressed demand.
14 BOJ leaves policy intact amid volatile week Japanese fixed income and stock markets have been extremely volatile this week and share prices have plummeted. The statement from last week’s monetary meeting did not suggest that the Bank of Japan is overly concerned about the higher bond yields as it did not even mention the bond market. The BoJ raised its assessment of the economy once again and stood pat on policy, showing confidence in its drastic easing program despite recent volatility in the bond market. But after the BoJ ended its two-day meeting Wednesday without announcing any fresh attempts to rein in bond yields—rising as an unintended byproduct of the monetary loosening the bank adopted last month of increasing the monetary base at annual pace of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion ($585.6 billion to $683.2 billion)—investors sold off JGB futures contracts. Nevertheless, the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda vowed on Friday to do more to steady Japan’s bond market, as another rocky day’s trading cast doubt over the effectiveness of the across-the-board effort to reflate the world’s third-largest- economy.
15 China: Further signs of loss of momentum as recovery remains fragile Fears of a slowdown in global growth were reinforced Thursday as a preliminary report on China's manufacturing in May showed activity contracted for the first time in seven months. The strength of manufacturing in China is considered a barometer of the global economy because of the nation's role as a powerhouse exporter. Because it makes up a large part of China's economy, manufacturing plays an important role in shaping domestic policy. The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, a gauge of factory activity, fell to 49.6 in May, compared with a final reading of 50.4 in April. The latest reading is in contractionary territory, as marked by a figure below 50. Anything above 50 indicates growth. The details were also weak with new orders declining to below 50 while inventories continued to increase. This suggests that manufacturing PMIs could continue to weaken in the coming months. The weak manufacturing PMI indicates increasing downside risk for the Chinese economy, but Chinese economy is not expected to have entered a new phase of prolonged deceleration in growth. The data follow slower growth in the first quarter and a series of disappointing statistics for April, just months after a strong fourth quarter raised hopes of a recovery. Several economists have recently cut their forecasts for China's growth in Growth of gross domestic product slipped to 7.7% in the first three months of 2013, from 7.9% in the final quarter of 2012.
16 US stocks drop amid concern the Fed may curtail stimulus efforts and weak growth data from China
17 Crude-oil prices fell this week amid concerns over future growth in oil demand by the world's two biggest oil consumers
18 Major Interest Rate Forecasts
19 The Week Ahead,,,
20 Central Bank Meetings Calendar Expected Rate Decision Current Rate MonthCentral Bank 0.25% June 19US Federal Reserve (FOMC) 0.50% June 6European Central Bank (ECB) 0.50% June 6Bank of England (BoE) 0.10% June 10Bank of Japan (BOJ) 0.00% June 20Swiss National Bank (SNB) 1.00% May 29Bank of Canada (BOC) 2.75% June 4Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 2.50% June 12Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Calendar for upcoming meetings of main central banks :
22 Egypt’s central bank financing accelerating inflation Egypt’s treasury bill rates continued to rise, with the latest auction reaching 15.08% for tenure of 9 months. Domestic banks continue to be the main investor in government securities. On the other hand, the Egyptian government is increasingly resorting to greater financing from the CBE. The increased dependency on the CBE by the Egyptian government, along with a rapidly depreciating currency is likely to lift inflation in Egypt above already relatively high levels, according to analysts at S&P. “In our view, strong inflation growth through an erosion of real incomes would reduce the already low standard of living for the majority of the population. It is also likely to add to the existing high levels of political discontent. This may further reduce the government’s willingness to implement measures to alleviate fiscal and external pressures, putting downward pressure on our sovereign ratings on Egypt,” said one analyst at S&P. Source: Bloomberg
23 IMF revises Egypt 2013 CPI forecast to 10.9% The IMF expects inflation in Egypt to climb to 10.9% this year, the highest level since 2010, revised from 8.2% it had released earlier this year, reflecting recent and planned subsidy cuts and pressure from monetization of fiscal deficits and supply shortages," the IMF said. In 2014, however, price pressures may be a bit lower than previously thought as the IMF cut the country's consumer price growth prediction to 11.6% from 13.7% seen in April, the report showed. Egypt's urban consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% in the year to April, fuelled by rising food and energy prices and a struggling pound currency. Additionally, the IMF expects Egypt's budget deficit to widen to 11.3% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year, which ends in June, from 10.7% in the previous year, but narrow again to 8.7% in the fiscal 2013/14. It is narrow further to contract as the government pushes through tax hikes and subsidy cuts to secure a $4.8 billion loan from the IMF after two years of economic and political upheaval. The IMF says it is ready to send a team to Cairo once Egypt completes its revision, Ahmed, the head of the fund’s Middle East and Central Asia department, says in Dubai today. Egypt’s government said it would be ready at the beginning of next month. Source: Trading Economics
24 GCC Economic Highlights: UAE UAE economic growth accelerates to 4.4% in 2012 : Economic growth in the United Arab Emirates accelerated to 4.4% in inflation-adjusted terms in 2012 from a downwardly revised 3.9% the previous year. "One of the most important factors is the role played by good and stable oil prices in general over the last year," the National Bureau of Statistics said. Robust oil prices as well as trade and tourism booms in Dubai, which is recovering from a 2008 burst property bubble, helped lift 2012 gross domestic product growth in line with expectations from a downward revised 3.9% in Output in the hydrocarbon sector, which makes up a third of the $383 billion economy, rose 6.3% on an annual basis in 2012, slightly slower than a 6.6% rise in the previous year. Oil prices averaged $112 per barrel last year, up from $109 in 2011, the office said, adding that the non-oil sector share on the Gulf country’s real GDP was estimated at 67.3% in Analysts polled by Reuters in April forecast GDP growth in the UAE to slow to 3.3% this year. Source: Trading Economics
25 GCC Economic Highlights: Saudi Arabia IMF sees Saudi economic slowdown, warns of inflation: The IMF says Saudi economic growth will slow to 4.4% in 2013 from 6.8% last year due to an expected fall in oil production, and cuts in government spending. Following talks with Saudi Arabia, an IMF mission said it was right time for the kingdom to undergo fiscal reforms, to hike fuel prices to reduce consumption and to take precautionary measures to contain inflation. Inflation has picked up since mid-2012 due to higher food prices and cost increases for restaurants, hotels and transportation, but remains contained at 4.0%, the IMF said. Food inflation in Saudi Arabia is 6.2%. Food prices are the single largest contributor to overall inflation in Saudi Arabia. Food prices increased by an estimated 6.2% on a year-on-year basis compared with 5.3% in March, fueling inflation rates. "The fiscal position is very strong. In recent years, the government has run large budget surpluses, reduced debt to very low levels, and built up considerable financial assets," it said in a statement. The IMF advised Saudi Arabia to gradually raise energy prices to cut consumption which has been rising rapidly due to a growing population.
26 GCC interbank rates Source: Bloomberg
27 Comparative MENA Markets For the period 19/05 – 24/05
29 IMF releases first review under the stand-by agreement IMF staff supporting current high JOD interest rates, & suggesting hikes if needed to contain inflation. IMF estimates 300 thousand Syrian refugees and the government estimates cost on the budget of JD 200 million per year. International community supporting the government has minimized the cost on the government by 0.7% of GDP. Jordan’s energy strategy to cover NEPCO losses includes higher tariffs and more cost efficient sources of energy. The delay in the electricity tariff hikes will be reflected in tighter central government budget in upcoming years. NEPCO expected to cover arrears of JD 450 million and losses of JD 1 billion by end of this year. The government will revise measures of targeted subsidies for fuel products by classifying citizens through more categories.
30 In line with our analysis, the IMF cited concern that interest rates have room to increase in order to maintain attractiveness of the JD. The IMF said: "The CBJ is rightly focused on rebuilding reserves. The CBJ is seeking to recoup the reserve losses incurred in late In this regard, instilling confidence in the program through enhanced outreach will play an important role, though further interest rate increases might be needed. The authorities’ intention to seek additional external financing, possibly through a Eurobond, is appropriate.“ "The interest rate hike in early December is a step in the right direction. It appears to have calmed markets and already resulted in a substantial reversal in dollarization...To ensure that the NIR targets can be met, staff suggested that, unless de-dollarization continues at the current pace and financing comes in as projected, the CBJ consider tightening monetary policy further using all available tools, including interest rates.“ The peg has served Jordan well by anchoring inflation expectations, supporting macroeconomic and financial stability, and encouraging FDI. With the peg as an anchor, the central bank has asserted to continue to use the policy tools (including those introduced in 2012) to improve liquidity conditions and build needed buffers. IMF Staff Supporting Current High JOD Interest Rates, & Suggesting Hikes if Needed
31 Impact of Syria conflict on Jordan The conflict in Syria imposes a significant burden on Jordan. The economy is primarily affected through a massive inflow of refugees and disruptions to bilateral and transit trade. Jordan is the largest recipient of Syrian refugees in the region—according to the UNHCR, since the beginning of hostilities it has received over 300 thousand refugees, of which about 250 thousand registered. The authorities believe that the number is over 500 thousand. With over 40% of the refugees aged between 18 and 59, the domestic labor force is expanding, possibly leading to pressure on the labor market. Costs of hosting the refugees are large. The international community covers a large part of the costs, but own-budget spending has also increased. Humanitarian assistance to refugees is provided through the United Nations agencies. Donors, in particularly the GCC, pledged at a high-level conference in Kuwait in January 2013 more than $1.5 billion in new aid to help Syrian refugees in neighboring countries and within Syria. In 2012, exports and imports with Syria declined by 22 and 37%, respectively, compared to 2011.
32 Jordan’s energy strategy to cover NEPCO losses In 2012, NEPCO stayed in line with the program set by the IMF, but did not repay its arrears. NEPCO’s losses were as projected, partly helped by gas inflows from Egypt increasing to more than twice the programmed level during November–December. However, bank lending to NEPCO was limited with NEPCO’s debt (which is government guaranteed) reaching 9% of GDP. As a result, NEPCO’s borrowing was lower than programmed in 2012 and the company did not repay its end arrears of about 2% of GDP as had been envisaged. To address NEPCOs losses, the IMF suggested that the government starts to gradually raise tariffs while protecting the poor. The strategy recognizes that tariff increases are the only way to reduce NEPCO losses in the short term. Tariff hikes will be gradual and evenly paced over the medium term. The further the government delays a hike in electricity tariffs, the tighter the central government budget will be in the following years to meet fiscal deficit targets set by the IMF. This affirms that the government is committed to increasing tariffs which will consequently reflect on the already relatively high inflation rate. As such, the combined central government primary deficit and NEPCO operating losses are expected to be slightly below the program target at 9.8 percent of GDP in 2013, down from 12.9 percent of GDP in 2012 (excluding arrears repayment). NEPCO’s adjustment in 2013 is less ambitious than envisaged because of a delay in implementing tariff increases.
33 S&P cuts Jordan sovereign credit rating to BB- Standard & Poor's (S&P) ratings agency has downgraded Jordan's sovereign credit rating by one notch to BB-minus from BB with a negative outlook. "The downgrade results from our view of Jordan's weakened external and fiscal profiles in the wake of reduced foreign grants and weaker terms of trade in 2011 and 2012," said S&P in a statement. The rating agency noted that foreign grants fell to 1.5% of gross domestic product -- the lowest in over a decade -- from 5.9% in The firm also said the negative outlook reflects the potential for downgrade over the next year if "adverse developments, particularly emanating from the conflict in Syria," again significantly raising Jordan's financing needs. Meanwhile, Jordan’s sovereign credit rating is rated one notch higher under Moody’s at Baa2, and it is not currently on review for a possible downgrade.
34 Amman Stock Exchange For the period 19/05 – 23/05 ASE free float shares’ price index ended the week at (2025.9) points, compared to (2017.7) points for the last week, posting an increase of 0.41%. The total trading volume during the week reached JD(43.5) million compared to JD(53.1) million during the last week. Trading a total of (48.2) million shares through (21,053) transactions The shares of (170) companies were traded, the shares prices of (52) companies rose, and the shares prices of (78) declined. Top 5 losers for the last week Stock % chg Sura Development & Investment Plc (19.23%) Ad-dulayl Industrial Park & Real Estate Company P.l.c (12.50%) South Electronics (10.00%) Al-manara Insurance Plc.co. (7.14%) El-zay Ready Wear Manufacturing (7.14%) Top 5 gainers for the last week Stock % chg Bindar Trading & Investment Co. P.l.c 18.81% Arab Union International Insurance 17.86% Middle East Specialized Cables Company/mesc_jordan Plc 15.38% Arab Electrical Industries 14.86% Arab Company For Investment Projects 13.51%
35 Local Debt Monitor Latest T-Bills As of May 26, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ JD(2,648) million. Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date3 months T-Bills 2.898%5014/03/201214/12/201129/ %5012/03/201212/12/201128/2011 Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date6 months T-Bills 3.788%5014/08/201214/02/201202/ %5023/01/ / %5008/06/201208/12/201127/2011 Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date9 months T-Bills 4.285%7504/12/201204/03/201205/ %7529/11/201229/02/201204/ %7522/11/201222/02/201203/2012 Coupon (%)Size - MillionMaturity DateIssue Date1 year T-Bills 5.345%7515/04/201415/04/201304/ %7026/02/201426/02/201303/ %5014/02/201414/02/201302/ %7027/01/201427/01/201301/2013
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