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Credible Conversations Forum May 29, 2013 Will new oil pipelines benefit BC businesses?

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Presentation on theme: "Credible Conversations Forum May 29, 2013 Will new oil pipelines benefit BC businesses?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Credible Conversations Forum May 29, 2013 Will new oil pipelines benefit BC businesses?

2 BC economic snapshot: Where’s the wealth? GDP breakdown Source: The British Columbia Economic Accounts, BC Stats

3 BC economic snapshot: Where’s the wealth? GDP breakdown Source: The British Columbia Economic Accounts, BC Stats

4 BC economic snapshot: Where are the jobs? Source: 2012 British Columbia Financial and Economic Review

5 BC economic snapshot: Where is the investment? Source: 2012 British Columbia Financial and Economic Review

6 BC economic snapshot: Future trends Source: KPMG 2012 BC Technology Report Card Where will future growth come from? Emerging tech sector The green economy LNG plans for northern BC – provincial priority

7 BC economic snapshot: Technology Source: KPMG 2012 BC Technology Report Card The technology and digital sector: Employs 80,000+ people– more than forestry, mining, and oil & gas combined Is the second fastest creator of new private sector jobs Contributes more to BC’s GDP than any resource-based sector Grew 5.7% annually from & now represents 10% of BC’s exports Is underperforming compared to other provinces Tremendous opportunity for growth

8 BC economic snapshot: Technology Source: KPMG 2012 BC Technology Report Card

9 BC economic snapshot: Green economy Source: Globe Advisors BC’s Clean Economy reports Green jobs: Clean energy supply & storage, clean transportation, green building and energy efficiency Together responsible for 123,000 jobs and $15b GDP in 2011 Public policies and programs have supported recent growth The sector is still new and vulnerable to risk – barriers include trouble finding skilled workers and investment capital

10 Assessing the risks of new pipelines Why focus on economic risk?

11 How would this project impact the west coast’s economy? How many jobs would the pipeline create? How many jobs would be risked in the case of an oil spill? What would the indirect employment benefits be? Would the pipeline help BC fund new social programs? How much would an oil spill or leak cost to clean up?

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13 Assessing the risks of new pipelines Sources: UBC Fisheries Economics Research Unity, Washington State Department of Ecology Impact on jobs Major tanker spill on BC’s north coast could lead to 43% job losses in coastal industries (UBC study) A major spill along the Washington State coast could adversely affect 165,000 jobs (Gov’t study) Need for modeling the impact of a south coast spill on jobs here – direct impacts on industries like tourism and real estate, but also indirect effects to sectors benefitting from Vancouver’s brand

14 Assessing the risks of new pipelines Source: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, CRED real estate impacts fact sheet (forthcoming) Impact on tourism – Gulf of Mexico case study Deepwater Horizon spill could mean 22,000 job losses and $8.7b economic impact Perception overshadowed direct impacts Seafood industry particularly impacted by perceptions Net negative impact on hospitality industry Small businesses were hardest hit

15 Assessing the risks of new pipelines Source: CRED real estate impacts fact sheet (forthcoming) Impact on real estate Impacts of pipelines on property values are well established: CRED’s review of 8 separate North American spills confirms this Following an oil spill, values of nearby properties affected on average 5-8% for around 1-2 years Directly affected properties usually see 10-45% loss in value Reputation alone is enough to have a noticeable impact More information is needed on the impact of Burnaby 2007 spill

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17 Assessing the risks of new pipelines Sources: UVic Environmental Law Centre, BC Government Technical Analysis on Conditions Required to Support Heavy Oil Pipelines How much would an oil spill cost? Historical spills Exxon Valdez $6.3b Deepwater Horizon $41.6b and counting Liability capped at $1.34b for spill at in Burrard Inlet or at sea High risk that costs above $1.34b will fall to taxpayers Need more info on who pays for a spill along the pipeline route

18 Questions for BC residents What can impacts in other places tell us about the risks for the west coast? What is the likelihood of a major spill at sea or along the route? Do the risks outweigh the benefits? If they do, should we accept the risks anyway for the benefit of the Canadian economy as a whole? If we don’t want to accept the risks, what are the economic alternatives?

19 Credible Conversations Forum May 29, 2013 Will new oil pipelines benefit BC businesses?


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