Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

1 2012 Economic Outlook Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast September 30, 2011 Beckie Holmes Diretor, Marketing Science, Cox Communications.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "1 2012 Economic Outlook Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast September 30, 2011 Beckie Holmes Diretor, Marketing Science, Cox Communications."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Outlook Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast September 30, 2011 Beckie Holmes Diretor, Marketing Science, Cox Communications Arizona

2 2 Overview The recession has left lasting damage Credit markets still fundamentally weak No political will for further fiscal support, unclear that monetary policy can help Bottom line: Slow and painful recovery continues into 2012; risk of recession is high

3 3 The Post-Recession Economy: More Services, Government, Exports, Less Investment, Durable Goods Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Statistics

4 4 Dropping Out: Labor Force Participation at Decades Lows Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 55 Where Is the Job Growth? Employment still down 5% from 2007 Peak *US Jobs lost: Nov-07 to Jan-10. US Jobs gained Jan-10 to Aug-11 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics US Job Growth: Lost: -8.6M, -6% Regained +1.9M, +1% -5.7%-23.5%-14.5%-5.7%-1.7%+8.2%-7.7%-2.3%’07-’11 cg

6 6 US Job Openings vs Employment: July 2011 Jobs Being Created Different From Those Lost Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

7 7 Job Creation: Entrepreneurship Weak Layoffs Down Sharply But Expansions, Firm Creation Sluggish Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 8 Confidence Faltering Nearing Recession Lows

9 9 US Median Household Income Income Now at 1996 Levels Source: US Census Bureau

10 10 Deleveraging? Source: US Federal Reserve

11 11 Massive Fiscal Stimulus Closing The Gap Will Be Painful Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

12 12 Balancing The Federal Budget Revenues and Expenditures Must Be Addressed To Reach Historical Averages Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

13 13 Baseline Projections for Declining Debt Extension of Current Policy Results in Rising Debt

14 14 Conclusions Recovery at risk – Risk of another recession now about 50% – Fiscal contraction will subtract 2-4 points from GDP growth Good Signs – Household and corporate balance sheets healthy – Job creation has returned Worrying Signs – No turnaround in hardest-hit sectors – Lasting damage to labor market – Congressional discord on deficit reduction


Download ppt "1 2012 Economic Outlook Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast September 30, 2011 Beckie Holmes Diretor, Marketing Science, Cox Communications."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google