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Independent Forecasts Using STOPS May 31, 2013 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Independent Forecasts Using STOPS May 31, 2013 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Independent Forecasts Using STOPS May 31, 2013 1

2 Agenda Introduction Overview of STOPS STOPS installation and Seattle application Lunch More STOPS Next steps 2

3 INTRODUCTION Purposes Contracting Non-disclosure Conflicts of interest Schedule Communications 3

4 Purposes Independent forecasts for FTA use in evaluating ridership forecasts provided by project sponsors at decision milestones Also: – Beta-testing of STOPS – Hand-off of STOPS to agencies and consultants for their use in preparing project forecasts – either as the primary forecasts or as 2 nd -opinion checks on local methods 4

5 Contracting Oversight funds Task assignment (issued 5/29) to define the work Work assignment to initiate the work for each project Resources – Estimates that reflect mutual (FTA/contractor) expectations – Updated (+ and – ) as the work encounters different realities 5

6 Contracting Products – Forecasts – STOPS project directory (both inputs and outputs) – Memorandum 1 on the forecasts (template coming) – Materials for presentation to the sponsor – Memorandum 2 on STOPS feedback Assignment strategy – One project at bat, the next on deck – Better hitters play more often 6

7 Non-disclosure of beta-test results Contractors and volunteers are now team members. Beta-testing may well lead to updates (model, software, interface, users’ guide, others?). So current findings are for internal purposes only. No loose lips that might threaten to sink this ship. 7

8 Conflicts of interest Contractors producing independent forecasts – Cannot be involved in primary project forecasting – Cannot have developed the underlying model – Other involvement with client/project may be OK Must be disclosed Determination by FTA 8

9 Schedule for the 2013 season Sometimes you win; sometimes you lose; and sometimes it rains. Spring training: June – Forecasts for initial set of straightforward projects – Feedback on STOPS  STOPS update? Opening days: July – Forecasts for projects seeking FTA decisions – Focus almost entirely on the projects Dog days of summer: August and thereafter – Forecasts for the remaining projects – Focuses Projects: eventual QC by sponsor and FTA STOPS: hand-offs, broadened experience, wider feedback 9

10 OVERVIEW OF STOPS Model structure Calibration(s) Concepts and terminology Suggested application approach Input data Resource requirements 10

11 Overview of STOPS Model structure – Modified 4-step model – Not “sketch planning” Nationally calibrated; local adjustments – National: against ridership on 24 FG systems – Local transit: against total transit ridership – Local fixed-guideway: against station counts 11

12 Preparation of forecasts with STOPS 12 Notes: -- Demographics, travel flows, and travel times are zone-to-zone -- Networks and loaded volumes are link-based -- “Adaptations” include translation to the year of the forecast plus: -- Conversion of worker flows to Home-Based-Work trip flows -- Scaling of HBW flows to represent Home-Based-Other flows -- Development of Non-Home-Based flows from HB transit trip ends

13 Calibration results 13 These results reflect the national calibration and the individual local calibrations against total transit ridership.

14 Concepts and terminology “Years” – 2000 CTPP – Current year Local STOPS calibration steps (currently “base” in STOPS) “Current year” requirement for FTA submittals – Opening year (for B&A studies, perhaps local QC) – Horizon year(s) Optional, at sponsor’s discretion 10- or 20-year projection: demographics, transit system 14

15 Concepts and terminology “Scenarios” describing the transit system – Existing system(“Base” for now; under review) – No-build(NOBL) – Build (BLD- or PROJ; under review) 15

16 Concepts and terminology “Forecasts” – Each STOPS run produces three forecasts Slot 1: Calibration (current year + existing system) Slot 2: No-build (user-selected year + No-build system) Slot 3: Build (same user-selected year + Build system) 16

17 Suggested application approach Install STOPS on your computer Prepare the current-year forecasts – Run the calibration forecast Current-year demographics Current system for all three “scenario” slots – Add the No-build forecast (2 nd and 3 rd slots) – Add the Build forecast (3 rd slot) 17

18 Suggested application approach Prepare horizon-year forecasts (if needed) – Horizon-year demographics with current transit scenarios Slot 1: current + existing (to repeat the calibration) Slot 2: horizon + No-build Slot 3: horizon + Build – Horizon-year demographics with horizon transit scenarios Slot 1: current + existing (to repeat the calibration) Slot 2: horizon + updated No-build Slot 3: horizon + updated Build 18

19 Input data Census shape files for CTPP geography and census blocks BTS: CTPP Parts 1, 2, and 3 in ASCII format Transit agency(ies): Current-year GTFS timetables MPO – Shape file with zones and pop/emp by year – Zone-to-zone highway impedances Project sponsor – Station locations and grade level – Service plan with detail sufficient to construct a schedule 19

20 Computer resources Operating system: Windows XP, 7, or 8 Memory: 2GB minimum, 4GB recommended Disk space: 20-100GB (perhaps USB external) GIS: ESRI-shape-file capable – Automated interface with TransCAD v5, ArcMap 10.1 – Manual interface with other GIS packages [Note: testing of other GIS versions/packages desirable] 20

21 Skills GIS – create and modify ESRI shape files Travel forecasting – Mechanics of model application – Nature of file-types and data used by travel models – Review and interpretation of travel forecasts Transit – Awareness of agencies providing service – Understanding of the nature of transit services 21

22 Time Calibration forecast – Data assembly – 2 hours to 1 week Scenario forecasts – Editing of GTFS files – 2 hours to 1 week Review of forecasts – QC and interpretation – 1 day to 1 week Every STOPS run requires ~3 hours 22

23 STOPS INSTALLATION AND APPLICATION Installation and configuration Hands-on preparation of a full STOPS run Batch run Data sources Results 23

24 NEXT STEPS Comments on the draft users’ guide Initial assignments to contractors FTA contacts with project sponsors RSG support 24

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