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DfES Longitudinal Studies of Young People Iain Noble Strategic Analysis, DfES

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Presentation on theme: "DfES Longitudinal Studies of Young People Iain Noble Strategic Analysis, DfES"— Presentation transcript:


2 DfES Longitudinal Studies of Young People Iain Noble Strategic Analysis, DfES

3 Longitudinal studies in DfES Department makes extensive use of longitudinal methods Used in e.g. evaluations and tracking studies (e.g. of teachers and other members of workforce) Has longitudinal administrative data sets (e.g. National Pupil Database) Maintains two major cohort studies: the YCS and the LSYPE

4 Differences from other cohort studies Policy background – focus on transitions, policy and effectiveness Relatively narrow time focus Single agency funding Focus on policy effectiveness and outcomes

5 The Youth Cohort Studies (YCS) Began in 1985 Comprise a series of 12 overlapping cohort studies Coverage of England and Wales (SSLS in Scotland) Data collection primarily by post but increasing use of telephone

6 The YCS – sample designs Samples drawn from Year 11 school rolls in alternate years Up to 1993 two stage design, from 1995 simple random sample design Sample sizes up to 35,000 Occasional use of over-sampling (likely to increase in future)

7 The YCS – research design First sweep one year after sampling (when sample members aged 16-17 – Year 12) Repeat sweeps usually at annual intervals thereafter Maximum of four sweeps (i.e. final sweep at age 19-20) Sweeps are numbered S1, S2 etc Overlapping cohorts – i.e. Sweep 3 for Cohort N takes place at same time as Sweep 1 for Cohort N+1

8 YCS – data weighting Data is weighted to remove effects of non- response At S1 calibration to a matrix of region by school type by sex by attainment at GCSE Subsequently by weighting back to previous sweep (cumulative weights) Later weighting now primarily survey response related

9 The YCS – core study content Participation in employment, education and training Qualifications gained and being studied for Occupational details (including recent job history) Limited information about schooling (inc truancy etc) and family background

10 The YCS – ‘HE’ modules Data collection through telephone interviews (c 20 minutes) at S2 and S3 Target sample 2000 at S2 with above average GCSEs S2 module covers attitudes to and intentions regarding HE S3 module re-interviews re actual behaviour, alternatives and student finance etc

11 YCS – initial uses of data Measure participation, progression and attainment Compare differences in these by key groups – social class, gender, ethnicity, type of school etc Identify key factors influencing later progression Reported initially in Statistical First Release – for example see: 00435/index.shtml 00435/index.shtml

12 The YCS – secondary analysis examples Factors affecting HE participation Vocational Pathways Post 16 students and part-time jobs Changes in wage structure and participation The effects of ethnic minority status

13 YCS – problems Declining response rates at Sweep 1 Response/attrition more a problem with lower qualified etc Small cell sizes for sub-samples of interest (e.g. ethnic minorities, NEET) Doubts on accuracy of qualification reporting

14 YCS data availability YCS 1-11 available through UKDA/ESDS – see: lAll&q1=Youth+Cohort lAll&q1=Youth+Cohort DfES looking to improve data documentation and data enhancement DfES also looking to improve speed of delivery of data into public domain Special data sets (e.g. with linked data) available through Department

15 YCS – the future Cohort 13 not beginning until 2007 (because LSYPE will cover gap) Linkage to administrative data (e.g. exam results and KS exam scores) for maintained sector pupils from C12 on Increasing use of targeted sampling for maintained sector

16 LSYPE – the need for a new study Changes in policy Changes in labour markets Changes in youth transitions Changes in information needs Deficiencies in current information available

17 Changes in policy - The New Agenda New directions in integrated policy e.g. Connexions, funding framework changes New focus on transitions Specific new policies (e.g. Modern Apprenticeships, EMA) Longer time frame for integrated policy (e.g. 14-19) HE target Concept of distance travel

18 Changes in labour market Increase in participation in FT Ed ‘Collapse’ of youth labour market Growth of part-time employment Polarisation and social exclusion Growing role of vocational qualifications (with own dangers of polarisation) Creation of LSCs

19 Changes in youth transitions from compulsory education More protracted (take longer on average) More complex (pass through more states on average) Greater heterogeneity (greater diversity across all young people) Subject to influence of greater diversity of factors

20 Key needs from research Enable evaluation of effects of existing policy and institutions (‘what works’) Support further policy development Enable policy development for key groups High degree of spread Be flexible

21 Target groups/questions e.g. … HE participation: increasing participation, reducing disparities The NEET (not in employment, education or training) Underachievers and the disaffected What works in schools Ethnic minorities

22 Disadvantages of current research Life of study too short (e.g. YCS, LFS) Sample size too small (e.g. BHPS) Specific problems with sub-samples of key policy interest Time between waves too long (e.g. Birth Cohort Studies) Topic coverage too restricted (all)

23 Current information deficiencies Lack of extensive detail about parents and family circumstances Lack of data about school circumstances Data collected by proxy Data collected too late Lack of data about environment Lack of robust information for key groups (e.g. NEET, at risk, ethnic minorities )

24 The Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) Begins at 14 Annual interviews until age 25 Additional interviews at Waves 1 and 2 with parent/adult Linkage to administrative data

25 LSYPE - Sample design Initial main set sample of 15, 000 Two stage sampling using schools (c. 670) Separate designs for maintained and independent sectors ‘Social exclusion’ design (boost schools with >20% FSM eligible) Additional ethnic minority boost sample of 6,000 (maintained only) Sampled from National Pupil Database (maintained only) Target Wave 1 response rate 72%

26 National Pupil Database Individual level (i.e. pupil) record Derived from Pupil Level Annual Schools Census (PLASC) Maintained sector only Source of additional valuable data (e.g. KS scores, exam results)

27 Ethnic minority boost sample Additional 1000 sample members at Wave 1 for: Black Caribbean Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Black African ‘Mixed’

28 Interview methods Wave 1: Face to face, Young person 30 minutes, Parent 50 minutes Wave 2: Face to face, Young person 40 minutes, Parent 40 minutes Default telephone interviews thereafter (20 minutes) Possible expansion of Wave 3 interview to 40 minutes face to face with both

29 Wave 1 Questionnaire content: young person Attitudes to school/education School subject preferences, choices and performance Access to and use of ICT Homework polices and practice Study support Aspirations/expectations for 16 and beyond ‘At-risk’ markers

30 Wave 1 Questionnaire content: parent interview Household structure and relationships School history of young person Employment history of parents Relationship history of parents (to DOB) Involvement in school/education Aspirations/expectations for young person Income and benefits

31 Possible data linkages To data about schools, colleges and neighbourhoods To examination and training databases To further individual level databases

32 State of play…... Wave 1 in progress Survey known as Next Steps to sample members Likely W1 response rate of 75% or more Wave 2 in design First Wave 1 data available in early summer 2005

33 Data availability Through UKDA/ESDS wherever possible Some restrictions where administrative data used and other disclosure controls Specific contractor appointed to develop data enhancement and documentation Possible web-based access and tabulation

34 Conclusions Both YCS and LSYPE offer major opportunities for both policy analysis and more general social analyses YCS offers major opportunities to look at changes over the last 20 years DfES welcomes proposals for analysis and suggestion to improve data content and availability

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