Presentation on theme: "DES Chapter 7 1 Multiyear Projections and Valuation."— Presentation transcript:
DES Chapter 7 1 Multiyear Projections and Valuation
DES Chapter 7 2 Current Information Current market price is $40.12 per share Given you knowledge about Van Leer, is this a fair price? You must create multi-year financial projections for Van Leer, perform a valuation, and compare the value to the market price of the stock.
DES Chapter 7 3 Short-term, Long–term There are three types of time periods in these projections: The short-term, in which there is plenty of specific information on which to base projections The steady state, in which the firm is assumed to be at constant growth and some form of competitive equilibrium. It starts with the last year of projections. The long-term is between the short term and the steady state--general firm and industry information is used to base projections.
DES Chapter 7 4 How long? The point at which short-term specific information gives way to reliance on more general industry and market movements varies from firm to firm and industry to industry. Frequently 3 to 5 years is the length of the short-term specific projections.
DES Chapter 7 5 The Short Run Just about anything can happen. Reasonableness of your projections depends on firm-specific knowledge and history of the firm.
DES Chapter 7 6 Over the Long-term It is difficult to maintain high growth for a long time Constrained by industry size Constrained by size of economy Competitors will enter profitable industries
DES Chapter 7 7 Projecting Operating Profit Long-run sales growth Real growth about 2% to 3% for U.S. economy most years Inflation? 2% to 3%? Adds to 4% to 6%, and higher when inflation is higher. What about Van Leer?
DES Chapter 7 8 Projections for Van Leer: Sales Growth Year after Growth11%8%7%7%6%6%6%
DES Chapter 7 9 Cost of Goods Sold To maintain profit margins a firm must: Establish and defend a competitive advantage. Like brand identity, patents, reputation for quality, corporate culture, supply chain, technology that allows cost control. To improve profit margins a firm must: Improve its competitive position. Otherwise, profit margin declines.
DES Chapter 7 10 COGS for Van Leer Assume Van Leer can raise prices in 2004, and hold for 2 years. After that, competition will drive down prices: after COGS% 62.5% 62.5% 62.5% 63% 64% 64%
DES Chapter 7 11 SGA How does SGA interact with CGS? With sales growth? Ask yourself: If sales growth is projected to be larger in the future than in the past, how (specifically) is this going to be accomplished? Are there costs associated with this plan?
DES Chapter 7 12 Van Leer’s SGA and depreciation SGA will increase slightly in 2004 to 22.5% of sales and then remain there. Depreciation will remain at 15% of net PPE.
DES Chapter 7 13 Ratios--historical Projected parameters Actual Ratios to calculate operating profit Average Sales Growth na 12.4% 5.9% 9.2% CGS % of sales 61.9% 66.2% 64.0% SGA % of sales 23.8% 21.7% 21.5% 22.3% Depreciation % net PPE 14.9% 15.0%
DES Chapter 7 14 Ratios--projected Projected after Ratios to calculate operating profit Sales growth rate 11.0%8.0%7.0% 6.0% COGS / Sales 62.5% 63.0%64.0% SGA / Sales 22.5% Depreciation / Net PPE 15.0%
DES Chapter 7 15 Projecting operating capital Cash Reduce to 3% of sales from 2004 to 2006, then 2% in 2007 and thereafter. Inventory 11% of sales in 2004 and thereafter. Accounts receivable 7.6% of sales in 2004 and thereafter.
DES Chapter 7 16 Operating capital… Net PPE as % of sales Depends on whether the firm is at full capacity or not. Currently at 95% capacity, and must build a new plant to meet growth. PPE will increase from 30% to 34% of sales in Will drop to 31.5% and then to the average of 30.8% by 2006.
DES Chapter 7 17 Operating capital Accounts payable as % of sales Days payable is about 45 days, which is the industry average, so Van Leer will keep AP at the historical average of 8.1% of sales. Accrued expenses have been 1% of sales and will remain there.
DES Chapter 7 18 Historical Ratios Actual Actual Ratios to calculate operating capital Average Cash/sales 5.0% Inventory/sales 8.9% 9.0% 10.0% 9.3% A R/sales 7.7% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% Net PPE/ sales 32.7% 29.7% 30.0% 30.8% A/P / sales 9.5% 7.4% 7.5% 8.1% Accrued exp./sales 1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
DES Chapter 7 19 Ratios to calculate operating capital
DES Chapter 7 20 Projecting operating taxes Taxes have averaged 39.7% of pre-tax income, and are projected to remain there.
DES Chapter 7 21 Dividend growth rate Van Leer is stabilizing its historically erratic dividend policy. Growth for 2004 through 2007 is set at 10% growth is projected to be 8%, and dividend growth is projected to be 6% thereafter.
DES Chapter 7 22 Target debt ratio and interest Historically, 16% of operating capital has been financed with long-term debt. This is expected to be reduced to 15%. Short-term and long-term debt is expected to cost 9%, and the yield on short-term investments is expected to be 3%.
DES Chapter 7 23 Balancing Projected assets too big? Short-term debt is the plug—after driving short-term investments to zero. Projected liabilities too big? Short-term investments are the plug—after driving short-term debt to zero.
DES Chapter 7 24 Historical Income Statement
DES Chapter 7 25 Projected Income Statement
DES Chapter 7 26 Historical Assets Actual Cash Short-term investments Inventory Accounts receivable Total current assets Net PP&E Total assets
DES Chapter 7 27 Projected Assets
DES Chapter 7 28 Historical liabilities
DES Chapter 7 29 Projected Liabilities
DES Chapter 7 30 Debugging—what is reasonable? Is it reasonable for sales to be so large? how big is company relative to industry? relative to economy? How much is being invested in assets from year to year? Are these increases similar to other years?
DES Chapter 7 31 Debugging How much are dividend payments? Are they sustainable? What happens to short-term debt? Is it increasing over the period? What happens to short-term investments? Is it increasing over the period? May need to reconsider financing mix.
DES Chapter 7 32 Debugging What are the projected ROICs? Are they comparable with previous years? Comparable with those of other companies in the industry? What is the projected growth in FCF from year to year?
DES Chapter 7 33 Using the Projections for Valuation Calculate projected free cash flows Calculate WACC Calculate projected horizon value Discount FCFs and horizon value at WACC Add in short-term investments Subtract debt Divide by shares outstanding
DES Chapter 7 34 Free Cash Flow
DES Chapter 7 35 Free Cash Flow Projected Operating Income Tax on Operating Income NOPAT Net Operating WC Net Operating Long Term Assets Total Net Operating Capital Investment in net operating capital Free Cash Flow growth in FCF %na-16.9%8.2%-23.9%6.0% ROIC 15.1%14.4%15.2%14.7%13.4%
DES Chapter 7 36 Cost of Equity Using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM): Van Leer’s beta is 1.4. The risk-free rate is 6%. The market risk premium is 5%. r S = r RF + beta (RPM) = 6% (5.0%) = 13%
DES Chapter 7 37 Cost of Capital… Target debt is 19.8%, target equity is 80.2% WACC = (1-T)r D w D + r S w S = ( )(9.0%)(0.198) + (13%)(0.802) = 11.5%
DES Chapter 7 38 Valuation Horizon Value Free Cash Flow (9.89) FCF + Horizon Value (9.89)
DES Chapter 7 39 Valuation Present value at the WACC of 11.5% is $ million. This is as of the end of 2003 Debt at end of 2003 is $124 million, short-term investments are $25 million
DES Chapter 7 40 Valuation Equity = $ $25 – $124 = $ million. There are 10 million shares, so per share is $52.38 per share. Compared to the existing market price of $40.12, this Van Leer appears to be a good investment at this time.