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CC AND MIGRATION; A Comparison between Archipelago Developing Country and Continent Developed Country Triarko Nurlambang Center for Applied Geography The.

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Presentation on theme: "CC AND MIGRATION; A Comparison between Archipelago Developing Country and Continent Developed Country Triarko Nurlambang Center for Applied Geography The."— Presentation transcript:

1 CC AND MIGRATION; A Comparison between Archipelago Developing Country and Continent Developed Country Triarko Nurlambang Center for Applied Geography The University of Indonesia

2 CC impact towards Migration ?? Climate Change impacts; the never ending debates - complexity understanding increase  less linear way of thinking - political intervention vs academicians & NGOs influencion/advocation  in creating public opinions (“CC hysteria”; “mis-leading” public understanding; creates public confusion: better wait than do something costly) Indonesia – Australia: a comparative study in the context of climate change - Different geographical settings (physical and social-culture landscape); displacement, vulnerability - Demographic Theory: migration flow from Indonesia to Australia (hypothesis) Is there any direct Climate Change impact on migration? - Uncertain impact : problem of understanding decision making process (as well as complexity of phenomena) and prediction methods. Moving decision is more complex process of making decision for most Asian people (including Indonesia; if not forced) compare to Australia - In terms of living system (system thinking: adaptive and mitigation): from mental models to reality, CC is seems as an evolution change process rather than revolution (we still have time to improve adaptive capacity) - Those problems gear to the capacity of adaptation development (especially dealing with localities understanding) The Good, the Bad, and The Ugly scenario (Oli Brown, 2008) Conclusion - CC and migration is a systemic complex phenomena where Ina. Delaying intervention on “BAU” may be top priority. - Aussie can be put as one entity of regional system for living - So what is the common ground between Ina. and Aussie dealing with CC and migration?  building learning process for better understanding

3 Warming 0.2 to 0.3°C per decade Increase in annual precipitation across islands, except in the south (projected to decline by 15%) Change in the seasonality of precipitation; parts of Sumatra and Borneo may become 10-30% wetter by 2080’s (Dec-Feb); Jakarta projected to be 5- 15% drier (Jun-Aug) 30-day delay in the annual monsoon, 10% increase in rainfall later in the crop year (April-June), and up to 75% decrease in rainfall later in the dry season (July–September) Mean sea level increase 31 mm by the next decade; and it is predicted that about 2,000 island in Indonesia will disappear by 2030 In case of Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, it is predicted that by the 2050 some settlement areas and main harbour Tanjung Priok will be flooded INDONESIA AND CC PREDICTION

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6 Direct Climate Changes Indirect Climate Changes Type of MovementTime Span Gradual climate change Chronic disasters, such as drought, degradation Seasonal labour migration. Temporary circulation Seasonal Gradual climate change Chronic disasters drought/ degradation Contract labour migration Yearly Sudden or gradual climate change Natural disasters/ severe drought/ famine/ floods Forced/ distress migration Temporary Sudden or gradual climate change Extreme temperatures/ sea level rise Permanent migrationLifetime Source: Raleigh, et. al (2008)

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8 Adaptive (and mitigation) capacity developing

9 Source: Nisbett, Richard E., 2003

10 Public Awareness and Understanding: the Fuel of Change Reorienting Education to Climate Change Impact towards Sustainable Development Shifting to Sustainable Lifestyle: Changing Consumption and Production Pattern Ethics, Culture, Equity: Sustainable as a Moral Imperative Mobilizing for Action United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1997 Pattern of Change Continue change Continue change & accelerated Un-continue change (incremental change) Climate Change is seems an evolution rather than revolution  adaptive and mitigation capacity have greater opportunity to be improved Public Policies : Government Public Action : Public initiative

11 ScenarioAssumptionTypology of climate change impact (2050) The Good  Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billion  Rapid change in economic structure (less materials intensity)  Clean Management Development  All big emission producer countries join the international carbon emission commitment Relatively low  Atmosphere concentration of CO2 stabilize around 600 ppm  Average temperature rise by C  Sea level rise cm  Migration increase by 5 – 10% along the displacement areas The Bad  Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billion  Rapid change in economic structure (less materials intensity)  The international commitment to reduce gas emission is delay due to remain usage of fossil fuel  Some funds are invested to adapt but not enough Relatively quite high  Atmosphere concentration of CO2 stabilize around 850 ppm  Average temperature rise by C (Stern report: a 3 0 C temperature rise would mean 1 to 4 billion people suffer water shortage)  Sea level rise cm  Millions of people would be temporarily displaced by individual extreme weather events. The Ugly  Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billion  Rapid change in economic structure  A “business as usual” scenario in consuming fossil fuel Relatively high  Atmosphere concentration of CO2 around 1550 ppm  Average temperature rise by C  Sea level rise cm  It may exceeding the 200 millions people displaced by climate change Oli Brown, 2008

12 Surely a quality education which covered Life Skills and based on the achievement of sustainable development Learning Level of the learner processes Content What the learner brings Seeks out learners Environment Supportive legislative framework Implementation of good policies Level of the learner processes Resources Means to measure learning outcomes “Education is an indispensable element for achieving sustainable development”

13 GoI Response to CLIMATE CHANGE - As a consequence of COP-13 UNFCCC in Bali, (December 2007), it has established a BALI ROAD for 2012 and Post Kyoto Protocol. - GoI established Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim (DNPI); National Board for Climate Change (Presidential Decree No.46/Th.2008), The President of RI as the Head, Vice of Head: Ministerial Coordination for Welfare Affairs, and 17 Ministries, and Meteorology and Climate Bureau as the members. The MOE appointed to be supervisor - GoI has allocated about 2 thousand billion rupiah (+/- 256 billion Aus$) for improving mitigation capacity towards CC.

14 Figure 1.The global carbon cycle. Source: United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)

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