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12th Annual Library Leadership Institute Library Leadership in the Asia Pacific Century Shanghai, 16-20 May 2014 Strategic Planning: Skills Development.

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Presentation on theme: "12th Annual Library Leadership Institute Library Leadership in the Asia Pacific Century Shanghai, 16-20 May 2014 Strategic Planning: Skills Development."— Presentation transcript:

1 12th Annual Library Leadership Institute Library Leadership in the Asia Pacific Century Shanghai, May 2014 Strategic Planning: Skills Development using a Scenario Planning Process 策略規劃:透過情境規劃過程發展技能 Howard Amos University Librarian University of Otago

2 Scenario Planning Aim: build understanding of planning strategies Outcome: understand role scenario planning can play Approach: sharing knowledge & development of a scenario planning approach

3 Session outline 14:00 – 14:45 Presentation 14:45 – 15:10 Group Activity 15:10 – 15:20 Feedback 15:20 – 15:30 Summary

4 Disclaimer

5 Deconstruction What do we mean by Planning What is Strategic Planning What is Scenario Planning How does skills development come into the picture Why should we care

6 “What can we do as academic librarians to better prepare ourselves for what is certainly an uncertain future? We just have to think more entrepreneurially and look for these opportunities.” – Steve Bell Vice President/President Elect Association of College and Research Libraries March 2012 “Libraries cannot remain relevant institutions by being meaningless middlemen who serve no purpose.“ - Eric Van de Velde blogger scitechsociety.blogspot.com/scitechsociety.blogspot.com/ “unless we give our funding bodies better and more compelling reasons to support libraries, they will be forced by economic reality to stop doing so.” – Rick Anderson Scholarly Kitchen blogger and Interim Dean of the J. Willard Marriott Library at the University of Utah.Scholarly Kitchen “Academic libraries must develop the staff needed to meet new challenges through creative approaches to hiring new personnel and deploying/retraining existing staff.” - A review of the trends and issues affecting academic libraries in higher education ACRL Research Planning and Review Committee

7 What is Planning If you don't know where you are going, you'll end up someplace else.” ― Yogi Berra “Failing to plan is planning to fail” ― Alan Lakein

8 What is Planning Part of what management is: organising resourcing [staffing] leading [control] directing planning Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959)..

9 Planning In organizations, planning is a management process, concerned with defining goals for company's future direction and determining on the missions and resources to achieve those targets. Knowledge is the essential ingredient

10 Knowledge Things we know we know Things we know we don’t know Things we don’t know we don’t know

11 What is Strategic Planning Identify and confirm intended/desired outcomes Clearly define objectives Means we can set priorities Establish common goals Demonstrate alignment

12 What is Strategic Planning Assessment of the environment Formulate a high level plan Operational planning - objectives & action items Evaluations, review & refinement

13 Strategic Planning Environmental scan trend spotting internal & external Where is the library? Demonstrate effectiveness

14 So I’ve got a Strategic Plan We know where we are going What if the goal post move How do we prepare for the unexpected

15 How do we anticipate change Move from reactive to proactive Flexible decision-making tool Relevant to who and what we are “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!” -Lewis Carroll, Alice Through the Looking Glass “The future you have, tomorrow, won't be the same future you had, yesterday.” - Chuck Palahniuk, Rant

16 What is Scenario Planning Genesis from military strategic studies Herman Kahn – “think the unthinkable” Business tool in the 1960’s & 1970’s Pierre Wack – long range planning at Royal Dutch Shell

17 What is Scenario Planning Not about predicting the future Provides a framework to: focus on different possibilities include uncertainties in planning what we don’t know that we don’t know Explore multiple plausible futures Develop feasible strategic plans

18 How does it work Use known trends to develop different possible future states Create a series of different futures Refine to scenarios & expand Knowledge exchange & responsiveness Develop strategies & options

19 How To…: ‘A Step-by-Step Guide’ Scoping Trend Analysis PESTLE Create Scenarios Generate Options Review Options Action Plan

20 Scenario Planning in action rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2012/03/scenario-planning-in-action-what-why-success-factors-and-process.html

21 Characteristics of scenarios They come in sets - can be powerful to examine contrasts Show possible futures Contextual, plausible A logical path Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001)

22 Generating Scenarios How does it flow Context imperatives scans Consequence trends drivers Construction assumptions decisions ScenariosActions plans projects

23 Imperatives & Trends Imperatives/TrendsImplications Changes in how teachers teach and students learn New support services, re-purposed/new spaces Move from print dominated resources to online, anytime from anywhere Changes to back office functions, consolidate services, the untethered library Economic accountability Do more with less, demonstrate effectiveness and value for investment New tools and technologies New skills sets for staff, incorporate self- mediation (PDA, print on demand etc.) Growth in inter-discipline research and international collaboration New skills sets for staff, embedded in the research project

24 Generating Scenarios - an example A Trend leads to an imperative: Economic pressure combines with government demands for more highly skilled graduates Impact: The university will need growth of post-grad programmes Library: We will………..

25 Otago case study Context imperatives scans Consequence trends drivers Construction assumptions decisions ScenariosActions plans projects

26 Otago case study Otago Library Operational Managers introduction to scenario planning workshop issues and options timeline Random teams from across the Library Scenarios refined and developed by SMT

27 How did it unfold Team compositions Timing Teams were presented scenarios Scenario construction can be varied but still valid Multi scenario planning not possible Value in reinforcing “the future is now” Yet to be embedded in quality assessment

28 Putting it into play – high level trends Budget cuts Changing social imperatives Development of digital humanities services Development of distance courses Disaster preparedness Economic pressure from Government Emphasis placed on post-graduates Increasing professional services Technology developments Dominance of the large publishers

29 Putting it into play – high level trends Budget cuts Changing social imperatives Development of digital humanities services Development of distance courses Disaster preparedness Economic pressure from Government Emphasis placed on post-graduates Increasing professional services Technology developments Dominance of the large publishers

30 Common themes and implications The untethered library Just in time Teaching online & global 24/7 Embedded librarians Economies from scale

31 To Recap: Scenarios Centre on construction of useable stories each one a coherent whole provoke thinking not substitute Need to be plausible based on assumptions relevant to issues and challenges specific decision-focused views produce new perspectives

32 Group activity: introduction imperatives scans trends drivers assumptions decisions plans projects scenarioactionsconstructionconsequencecontext

33 Group activity Trends this development responds to are: Plan consequence scenarioconstructContext

34 Group activity Imperatives/TrendsImplications Changes in how teachers teach and students learn New support services, re-purposed/new spaces Move from print dominated resources to online, anytime from anywhere Changes to back office functions, consolidate services, the untethered library Economic accountability Do more with less, demonstrate effectiveness and value for investment New tools and technologies New skills sets for staff, incorporate self- mediation (PDA, print on demand etc.) Growth in inter-discipline research and international collaboration New skills sets for staff, embedded in the research project

35 Group activity Part Two Consider options for three areas to be developed

36 Group activity Factors could be Impact on the sector and your university Direct impact on your library What trends might lead to a positive What could be a negative version

37 Summing Up Create a series of different futures Use known drivers (trends) Develop different future states Refine to scenarios Knowledge exchange & responsiveness Embed in strategic plan action points

38 The JISC…: ‘Step-by-Step Guide’ Scoping Trend Analysis PESTLE Create Scenarios Generate Options Review Options Action Plan

39 A lot of work – what are the benefits Enhance the planning and forecasting process Ties diverse information and future environments Avoids single view and blind spots Forces explicit assumptions Highlights areas for further examination Draws staff and management into the process Develops the Library’s corporate culture

40 Skills Development Builds familiarity in handling uncertainty Embrace diversity - find coherence Team dynamics Builds wider planning capabilities

41 Resources Association of Research Libraries and Stratus, Inc., The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User’s Guide for Research Libraries (Washington, DC: ARL, 2010), Futures, The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Elsevier (Science Direct) ISSN: & Libraries of the Future JISC Infonet scenario planning info kit Technological forecasting and social change. Elsevier (Science Direct) ISSN & Total Quality Management and Business Excellence. Routledge (Routledge Open Select) ISSN

42 Acknowledgements Libraries of the Future Anderson Rick (2011), “The Crisis in Research Librarianship,” Journal of Academic Librarianship 37, no. 4 Dalziel, Murray, and Schoonover, Stephen C. (1988). Changing Ways: A Practical Tool for Implementing Change Within Organizations. New York. NY: Amacom/American Management Association. Kahn, Herman and Wiener, Anthony J (1967). The Year 2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years., New York. NY: The Macmillan Company. Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959). Principles of management; an analysis of managerial functions (2 nd ed.). New York,NY:McGraw-Hill. Meister, Jeanne. 5 New Skills needed for leadership in skills-needed-for-leadership-in-2020/http://www.humanresourcesiq.com/business-strategies/articles/5-new- skills-needed-for-leadership-in-2020/ Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Scenario Planning: A tool for Strategic Thinking.” Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995; 36 no. 2 Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001). The essentials of scenario writing. Business Horizons, 44(4),

43 Images Subpart A - Framework for Planning

44 Images https://ctools.umich.edu/osp-presentation-tool/viewPresentation.osp?id=0A1E1FE677059A48CF284489D696FB38


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