4 Population Growth & Employment 1994 – 2004 Population grew by 763 M (14%) Employment grew by 400 M (17% ) Job creation is at record rates Shift from manual to mental work has resulted in a dramatic improvement in the quality of jobs created
5 Unemployment rose from 140 M to 180 M (21%) 6% of global labor force of 3 B unemployed Labor force participation rose 1.5% resulting in an additional 90 M job seekers since 1990 – largely due to more working women and delayed retirement of the elderly Unemployment 1994 -- 2004
6 Youth Unemployment (under 25) Unemployment is concentrated among youth & in cities Youth are entering workforce faster than job creation due to high pop growth in 1970-80s Youth UE: USA – 11%, France – 28%, Croatia – 37%, Spain – 50%, World – 14% Mismatch between education, training & jobs
7 Impact of Aging on Employment Significant labor and skill shortages will develop in OECD countries Working age population is declining in OECD countries -- 8% in EU25 by 2030 – could result in labor shortage of 70-150 M in EU15. Labor shortages by 2020: USA 17M, China 10M Will propel massive migration of people and jobs
8 Impact of Technology Technological development results in localized direct low-wage job destruction in labor-intensive sectors and invisible indirect job creation in many other sectors. Technology is stimulus to higher wage indirect job creation in machine production, R&D, education, services with multiplier effect from higher incomes & consumption. US labor force grew from 29 M to 130 M in a century of rapid technology adoption.
9 Invisible Job Creation: Computers Computer research, design and manufacturing Same for peripherals & allied products Software design, engg, servicing, maintenance Making and selling computer games Electronics retailers Computer training companies Web publishing, e-commerce, other web businesses Self-employment – web-based & other Recycling old computers
10 Globalization Does transfer jobs from high cost to low cost locations, causing disruptions. Offset by higher purchasing power at home & reciprocal demand from abroad. High labor costs alone is not the cause of job destruction. US labor costs were 10 times higher than Europe in the late 19 th Century. Total productivity of the economy is the key, i.e. application of Knowledge.
11 Global Shortage of Skills, not Jobs USA has shortfall of 126,000 nurses & estimates shortfall of 200,000 MDs & 800,000 nurses by 2020. In Germany, 80% of enterprises with fewer than 20 employees reported difficulties in filling positions. In Austria, 42% of enterprises face skilled-labor shortage. 50% of firms in developing countries face skills shortage. Mismatch between skills & jobs due to little or inappropriate education & training Only 5% of India workforce have formal vocational training
12 Average person works only 1/3 rd of lifetime but requires goods and services 3/3 rds Since the providers of those goods and services also work only 1/3 rd of their lifetime, the ratio of working lifetime contributed to working lifetime required of others = 1:9 Natural Employment Generation
13 Fractional Job Creation School going child creates fractional jobs for Teachers & school administrators Authors, printers, publishers Medical care providers & researchers Garment makers Toymakers Farmers & food processors Retail store & restaurant staff
14 Structural Unemployment Symptom of the artificial functioning of the society hindered by its structures 9% in Europe 5.6% in USA
15 How society stimulates employment New products New services Growth in demand Higher productivity Entrepreneurship Access to information Technological innovation Organizational innovation Higher quality standards Legislation & enforcement Administrative efficiency Health consciousness Environment awareness Higher skills Increased speed Change of attitudes
16 Job Creation in India 7 M new job seekers annually No significant rise in unemployment Only 8% of jobs in formal sector Little information on where & how jobs are created in informal sector Process of job creation poorly understood Strategy to create 10 M jobs per year Indian Employment Guarantee Act 2005
17 Job Creation Strategies Publicize opportunities in the media -- knowledge Remove structural impediments & disincentives Increase access to credit Incentives for new initiatives Strengthen or enforce legislation Impart training (computer-based) Use insurance as a stimulus Promote entrepreneurship & self-employment Promote new organizations Raise minimum levels of education Create purchasing power (money)
18 Need for Further Research Natural process of job creation Project occupation demand Project skills requirements
19 Conclusions Now is not the time for fatalism or complacency. Full employment is an achievable goal. Knowledge, education, training & human values such as freedom & respect for the individual are the keys. Right to employment should be guaranteed. The nation that guarantees it will achieve it. Future of Employment is in our hands.