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Future Electricity Outlook for Lagos State by. Prof

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1 Future Electricity Outlook for Lagos State by. Prof
Future Electricity Outlook for Lagos State by Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, Akande Abiola and Olayiwola Saheed Centre for Petroleum, Energy Economics and Law

2 Outlines Introduction objectives Conceptual Issues
(State of Electricity consumption in Lagos) Methodology Electricity Projection (Demand and supply)and Investment Requirements Concluding Remarks Outlines

3 Electricity and Economy of Lagos State
“As the bedrock of any development agenda, this administration has always considered the provision of stable power supply as being of the utmost priority. The provision of potable water, functional telecommunication services, uninterrupted information and communication services, security operations, traffic management, healthcare and education are all dependent on the availability of constant and stable electricity…the people of Lagos State have been deprived of one of the essentials of decent living;…for too long. This problem has its roots amongst other things in the lack of accurate data as to the actual power/energy requirements of the people of Lagos State.” Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN)

4 Introduction Energy plays a vital role in the economic, social and political development of an nation. History of economic development shows that there is a direct linkage between energy consumption and economic development process. A State that cannot control its energy sources cannot control its future development. Energy shortages could be a binding constraint on the economic development ambition of any nation. Adequate access to energy is crucial for the economic transformation of the any State. It is one of the fastest ways to cut rural poverty, boost productivity among women, and accelerate education and health outcomes, especially among the people living in rural and semi-urban centres. (UNDP,2005). Being the commercial and economic capital of Nigeria implies that Lagos State requires a lot of electricity to thrive. BRINCS = Brazil, Russia, India, Nigeria, China and South Africa. BRINCS countries are those countries that are considered as emerging economies in the global communities.

5 Introduction Being a hub of sort in Nigeria, as well as in the West-African sub-region, it is obvious that the economic activities in Lagos State would definitely keep driving energy (electricity) consumption upwards in the coming years. This is particularly with the desire for the State to propel Nigeria into becoming one of the BRICS (BRINCS) countries by To achieve this, how much of electricity is required to meet the demand of the Mega city ? How will the gap be filled? What is the cost implication of the electricity? These are fundamental questions that need answers. BRINCS = Brazil, Russia, India, Nigeria, China and South Africa. BRINCS countries are those countries that are considered as emerging economies in the global communities.

6 Introduction Being a hub of sort in Nigeria, as well as in the West-African sub-region, it is obvious that the economic activities in Lagos State would definitely keep driving energy (electricity) consumption upwards in the coming years. This is particularly with the desire for the State to propel Nigeria into becoming one of the BRINCS countries by To achieve this, how much of electricity is required to meet the demand of the Mega city ? How will the gap be filled? What is the cost implication of the electricity? These are fundamental questions that need answers. BRINCS = Brazil, Russia, India, Nigeria, China and South Africa. BRINCS countries are those countries that are considered as emerging economies in the global communities.

7 Objectives of the State Energy Policy…
The objective of this study is to examine the future electricity demand for Lagos State (capacity needed) and what is the cost implication.

8 Interface in the Energy Planning and Management

9 Conceptual Issues Lagos State accounts for about 37% of the country’s urban population, tending towards becoming the 3rd largest Mega-City in the world by 2015 with an estimated population of 18 million growth at an annual rate of 5.2% The State’s GDP is put at about US$34 billion, with per capita income of US$2,225 as against the national GDP of US$ billion and a per capita income of US$1,657. Lagos State is the economic capital as well as the financial and commercial centre of Nigeria contributing about 32% of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Also, Lagos State is the nation’s lead contributor in the non – oil sector with 19% attainment, which is equal to the contribution of 31 Nigerian States. Naturally, it follows that the State will dominate energy utilization to meet up this high profile status it holds in the country. The economy of the state is divided into four key categories to record energy utilization pattern These sectors are: Industry, Transport, Commercial/Service, Residential and Agriculture.

10 Conceptual Issues…. Electricity is the most important energy type for socio-economic growth. There are documented evidences of crisis situation in the industrial sector where electricity is in short supply. Lagos State socio-economic growth and industrial development will be seriously constrained in the absence of adequate electricity supply. The state currently consumes roughly 50% of all electricity produced within Nigeria, yet with inadequate per capita consumption, in absolute and relative terms to other similar cities. About 116 years ago (1896), Lagos was consuming an average of 60 MW of electricity. Today, Lagos needs a minimum of 10,000 MW of electricity to power both domestic and industrial power needs. (Adenikinju,2012) Current national supply is about 4,500 MW, meaning Lagos gets about MW only Lagos State is presently the only state in Nigeria whose electricity supply need is met through two distribution companies, namely Ikeja and Eko DISCOS respectively, underscoring her consumption level.

11 Lagos State Energy Demand Profile…
Total Energy Demand (PJ) by Energy Source in Lagos State Economy Year Electricity Petroleum Products Total Petrol (PMS) Diesel (AGO) Kerosene (HHK) Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) 2009 10.64 149.80 59.78 48.07 2.10 270.39 2010 14.55 218.15 66.42 51.68 3.60 354.4 2011 14.12 239.97 70.94 77.52 5.10 407.65 Electricity consumption pattern for Lagos State (kWh)  Distribution Company 2009 2010 2011 Eko 877,543,943.1 1,200,128,992 1,165,177,109 Ikeja 2,077,149,468 2,840,709,364 2,757,978,140 Total 2,954,693,411 4,040,838,356 3,923,155,249 Sources: EKO and Ikeja DISCOS; DPR; HOR 2012; authors’ calculation Energy Demand (PJ) by Sector in Lagos State Economy: 2009 – 2011(without fuelwood) Year Sector Energy Consumption PJ Total Annual % Growth Agriculture Industry Transportation Commercial Residential 2009 1.35 132.49 79.77 1.89 54.89 270.39 2010 1.77 173.66 104.55 2.48 71.94 354.40 31% 2011 2.04 199.75 120.26 2.85 82.75 407.65 15%

12 25 Years Quantitative Targets…
Percentage Contribution of Energy Mix Source of Electricity Generation (% Contribution) 2011 2020 2037 Hydro 14% 15% Gas 55% 65% 70% Renewables 1% 5% 10% Auto generation 30%

13 Methodology The bottom up approach is employed in the projection of the demand and supply for electricity in Lagos. The approach was based on some assumptions. The assumptions revolve around the population, economics growth and government goals which are identified as the driver of electricity in Lagos. Table 1:Features of the assumptions made Type of Scenarios GDP Growth Rate Targeted Electricity Access by 2037 Commencement of Electric powered Trains Energy Intensity Share of Renewables in electricity Generation by 2037 Low growth scenario 5% 80% 2022 Stable 10% Reference Case(BAU) 6% 90% 2019 Varied High growth scenario 95% 2017 Green economy scenario 20%

14 Methodology : Demand Projection
The projected electricity consumption for the State over the next 27 years for the Reference scenarios is depicted in Figure Figure 6.2: Projected Electricity Demand for Lagos State As at 2007, New York city was already consuming about 170,000GWh which is far more than what is expected of Lagos State by 2037.The values obtained are far less to what was obtained in most industrialized mega cities. - New York Energy Master Plan, 2009.

15 Methodology : Demand Projection …
The projected electricity consumption for the State over the next 27 years based on sectors using the Reference scenarios is depicted in Figure 7.2.

16 Low Growth Rate Case (Pessimistic)
Trends of per capita energy consumption and Per capita GDP Source: Author’s computation Low Growth Rate Case (Pessimistic) Business as Usual Case ( Reference) High Growth Rate Case (Optimistic) Year Per capita Electricity (Kwh) Per capita Income (US$) Per capita Electricity (Kwh) Per capita Income (US$) 2011 299.62 2014 394.14 403.92 424.83 2016 504.81 521.1 574.78 2020 841.26 987.91 2025 2032 2037 7370.6 Projected Trend in Electricity Supply up to year 2037 using two approaches (MW) Source: Author’s computation

17 Methodology Figure 7.3 portrays the optimal fuel supply mix to meet the projected electricity supply. It is obvious that natural gas will dominate the optimal supply mix. Natural gas is expected to account for about 70%, hydro (15%), renewable (10%) and auto-generation (5%). This will result in efficient and more friendly environmentally energy mix. This is in line with the resource endowments of the State and supports the goals of the State administration in relation to the energy sector. Figure 7.3 : Optimal Fuel Mix for meeting projected electricity supply

18 Investment Requirement
The variables considered in the investment profile are capital expenditure(CAPEX), operating expenditure(OPEX), fuel expenditure(FUELEX), transmission & distribution and Gas transportation costs. These costs vary with respect to the set objectives and GDP growth rate. Therefore, the reference scenario is considered.

19 Figure 9.3: Investment Structure for Lagos State
Investment Requirement… Figure 9.3: Investment Structure for Lagos State

20 Investment Requirements
Electricity Demand, Capacity Needed and Required Investment Cost for Lagos State 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Electricity Demand (GWh) Total Capacity Needed(MW) 1730 3006 8040 13741 21526 30542 Investment Cost ($m): CAPEX GAS Trans. Elect T/D FUELEX OPEX 1,360 805 8 267 151 130 2,347 1319 9 190 444 385 3,254 1448 11 354 746 695 4,191 1525 22 342 1160 1143 6,090 2300 32 464 1610 1687

21 Recommendations Aiming at making Lagos State competitive amongst the world’s mega city, it is recommended that it pursues these five goals: 1. Promote a diverse portfolio of new, clean, in-State generation 2. Expand In-State Electricity Resources 3. Capitalize on emerging technologies for transportation and power production 4. Maintain support for the renewable energy portfolio standard of 20% of total energy requirement from renewable sources by Promote Cost-Effective Conservation and Energy Efficiency Programmes

22 Thank You


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