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Preparedness: Principles, Planning, and Resources Robert Slaughter.

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1 Preparedness: Principles, Planning, and Resources Robert Slaughter

2 Who am I? I am not an ex-soldier, former police officer, or tactical operator, just an ordinary citizen I am a liberty-minded person, attempting to be responsible and self- reliant I am a History major, now involved in the information technology field Within IT, I am an Analyst – I examine issues, ask questions, do research, and come up with recommendations for solutions Those are the skills this presentation is meant to provide to you – a “Preparedness Analyst” I have a wife (and a cat), but no children And I am concerned about several significant issues in the world today, so I prepare Not a brand-new beginner, but not nearly as far along in my preps as I would like to be

3 About this presentation This presentation assumes you are familiar with the basics of preparedness This presentation has two main parts Principles – ways to organize yourself and your preparations, so that you are making sure that you have covered the fundamentals Planning – ways to look at your personal preparedness to help you cover all the details As we move through the presentation, and also at the end, resource suggestions will be provided

4 Regarding asking questions There will be 'breaks' in the presentation specifically for asking questions But if you need to, please go ahead and just ask! “Hey Bob, I have a question...” There are no silly questions. There are no stupid questions. There are no 'obvious' questions If you're thinking it, so is someone else here Ask! Our preparedness is important

5 What is preparedness? Preparedness is not just being prepared for ‘the end of the world as we know it’ (“TEOTWAWKI”), though it could be It is simply being prepared for any abnormal and disruptive situation, so that you and your family can remain safe and reasonably comfortable for the duration Possible situations: Tornado or hurricane Disease outbreak Loss of job

6 More questions than answers I will not be telling you what specific events to prepare for, or what specific preparations to make Too many options and too many different opinions What I will be giving you are specific questions to ask yourself, and approaches to examine potential situations, so you will make good judgments as to what you need to prepare for, and how to approach those scenarios in an organized fashion At the end of this presentation, you will have a straight-forward and simple, useful process to follow to improve your preparedness

7 Discussion Any questions or comments so far? FIRST: Principles

8 Principles Several preparedness experts have looked at how they approach their preparedness activities, and created lists of guiding principles for others to use By reviewing several examples of such principles, you can consider both where that person sits relative to you (and thus how strongly to consider their advice), and they can help you clarify your own personal principles of preparedness Having an organized set of principles gives you a framework on which to 'hang' your preparedness planning upon; an organizing structure

9 James Wesley, Rawles Mr. Rawles (and the comma is intentional) has distilled his approach to four main steps Beans – have sufficient food and water available Bullets – have means of defending yourself, your family, and your preparations Band-aids – have means of taking care of health, both emergencies and long-term Bullion – have a means of trade and barter based in tangible items with real value (junk silver, silver rounds, spare ammunition, alcohol, cigarettes, socks, etc.) His suggestion is to apply these in that order

10 Rawles Resources Website: Survivalblog.com Books: Non-fiction “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It” Books: Fiction “Patriots”, “Survivors”, and “Founders”

11 Kellene Bishop Kellene Bishop has created the “Ten Principles of Preparedness”

12 Preparedness Pro Resources Website: PreparednessPro.com YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/user/PreparednessPro http://www.youtube.com/user/PreparednessPro Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Preparedness-Pro http://www.facebook.com/pages/Preparedness-Pro Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/preparednessprohttp://twitter.com/#!/preparednesspro Book: Forthcoming

13 Prepography Andrew Jackson of Prepography.com has come up with his Full Spectrum Preparedness Doctrine, with 10 principles and 4 aspects

14 Prepography Resources Website: Prepography.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004138572281 https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004138572281 Twitter: https://twitter.com/Prepographyhttps://twitter.com/Prepography

15 PrepperLink The folks at PrepperLink.com have created a diagram of the tasks and skills to be fully prepared

16 PrepperLink Resources Website: PrepperLink.com Diagram: http://www.prepperlink.com/index.php/prepare/getti ng-started/item/114-prepping-matrix-ver1 Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/Prepperlink Twitter: http://twitter.com/PrepperLink YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/user/PrepperLink

17 Review There are certain basics common to all sets Food and water First aid / medical Two lists have an order, but with significantly different emphasis Do any of the lists “ring true” (or instead, “ring false”) for you? Can you see ways of using these directly or creating your own personal approach? Based on these sets of principles, have you spotted gaps in your own preparedness you were unaware of before?

18 My principles – guidelines I see value in all the sets of principles, and in the planning matrix In my opinion, more than five principles within a set starts being hard to recall and use I like Prepography's four aspects as another dimension to principles Tentative: Mental - “know”, Physical - “do”, Social - “who” At the moment, mine are: Spirit, Sustenance, Security, Society, Silver

19 My (subject to change) principles Spirit – a grounding in something greater than me “There is One Presence, and One Power, in my life and in all the Universe: God, the Good, all-knowing, all-powerful, everywhere present” Sustenance – food and water, both stores-on-hand and the means to re-supply Security – firearms, self-defense, and other security and defense activities Society – first-aid, shelter, communications, learning, and building a supporting community I do not believe it is prudent to rely only on a small group for long-term scenarios Silver – Silver and other tangible goods for barter

20 Discussion Any questions or comments so far? NEXT: Planning

21 Planning – THE quote “A failure to plan is planning to fail” Said by: Benjamin Franklin ? Winston Churchill ? Alan Lakein ? (70's time-managment guru) Does it really matter who said it? It is very necessary advice

22 Planning By showing you a process for planning, the intent is to help you … Understand how any potential threat impacts your personal preparedness plans Decide if a given threat pertains to you and your family Determine what specific preparations a given threat requires – duration, special changes, etc. Understand how complete your preparations and planning are, and what gaps or modifications are required “Write it down!”

23 Evaluating potential events Once you have your basics in place for whatever period of time you have initially chosen (a minimum of 3 days to a month), you should start considering possible events for the impact on your planning Write down a simple list of all events you can think of, discarding only those you believe are absolutely impossible People have very different beliefs around various events, which makes a one-size-fits-all approach to preparedness planning so difficult Rate each event on how important planning for it is to you: High, Medium, Low (not everything High)

24 Event evaluation Starting with those events on your list most important to you, for each event answer the following questions as best you can: How likely is the event to occur in the next 5 years? (Very High, High, Low, Very Low) How likely is the event to occur in the next 20 years? (Very High, High, Low, Very Low) How much lead-time will you get before the event trigger? How much time between the trigger and maximum impact? How long will the maximum impact of the event last? How long will there be significant impacts? Will life return to some level of normalcy afterwards?

25 Event evaluation: Tornado Event: Tornado hitting your neighborhood, perhaps your home How likely in 5 years? Very Low How likely in 20 years? Low Lead time: Zero to possibly a few hours Time between trigger and maximal impact: zero Length of critical period: minutes Length of significant impact: 3 days to several months Return of normalcy: Yes These are my answers. Your's certainly may be different. Neither of us are wrong for ourselves

26 Event evaluation: Terrorist EMP Event: Terrorist EMP via nuke launched over US from cargo ship How likely in 5 years: High How likely in 20 years: High Lead time to trigger: zero Time before maximal impact: three days Length of critical period: two weeks to two months Length of significant impact: three to five years Return to normalcy? Yes, with caveats These are my answers. Yours certainly may be different. Neither of us are wrong for ourselves

27 Event evaluation: Group choice Event: ? How likely in 5 years: ? How likely in 20 years: ? Lead time to trigger: ? Time before maximal impact: ? Length of critical period: ? Length of significant impact: ? Return to normalcy? ? These are some answers. Yours certainly may be different. Neither of us are wrong for ourselves

28 Looking at your evaluations Do a batch (dozen) of evaluations, then for each, review its impacts on your prepping activities Is the combination of likelihood and severity enough to adapt your plans? Consider ranking events in priority before making changes Would the event require sheltering-in-place or bugging-out? What additional specific supplies, skills, or other changes are needed? Write down your review on the evaluation (in a Notes section, or on the back)

29 Post-evaluation After reviewing the impact of multiple events, look for commonality of changes needed. If multiple events require similar adaptations, consider folding those changes together, so that as many of those events are taken care of by as little time and expense as necessary If circumstances around or understanding pertaining to an event changes, re-evaluate it, then review the revised event's impact on your planning If changes in your life occur, use the evaluations to determine how best to adapt Review all your evaluations at least once a year

30 Events – points to ponder In addition to evaluating events, you should review your preparedness around your family's daily routine, especially around these potential impacts: Where they may be when something happens Knowing what to do Knowing where to go Having some level of formal consideration beforehand makes success more likely

31 Location-based example Situation: Wife: at work Husband: At grocery store, doing weekly shopping Children: at school, 2 at elementary, one at middle/junior high Event: News alert via media – nuclear devices detonated in New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles Who gets the kids from school? Using what route?Who gets home first? What do they need to do there? Deciding these by phoning is not efficient, and potentially impossible (cell network overwhelmed)

32 Dealing with locations Make a list of all the places your family goes regularly Determine place or places to gather (likely home) Determine who picks up whom based on locations. Look for imbalances (if one parent gathers children from 3 different locations, while one goes straight home, is this OK?) Establish plans for first-to-arrive activities Adjust plans as needed for certain events Have a framework for handling special locations (vacations, work-related travel, special events)

33 Establish formal plans Creating written plans, as either “task lists” or “checklists”, allows for several things Clarity – everyone knows what to do Memory aid – having a list makes sure steps are not forgotten or missed Review – having a plan in writing allows for review and discussion. You and your family can make sure a plan is complete and correct Reference – you family may know the plan now, but may need a refresher in 6 months Do not use a format that has too much detail, or that you and your family are not comfortable with!

34 Plan – framework essentials Any plan should have its own name and focus on the Six Question Words: Who – who is involved, by name or by role? When – under what conditions/events does the plan trigger? What – what specifically needs doing? By whom? How – additional details for 'what', if needed Where – location of action, especially if not home Why – not typically necessary “in the moment”, but useful to explain during training and review to show the importance of the plan

35 Plan – a simple example Plan – Secure Apartment Who – Bob (Primary), Mary (Secondary) When – Civil unrest / rioting What Primary locks doors and sets up security bracer bar ; Secondary monitors news Primary retrieves firearms; Secondary fills water-bob Primary and Secondary jointly prepare pepper soakers Begin 6-on 6-off security rotation (Primary first) How – Have pepper spray pre-mixed and stored near soakers Where – At home (bug-in). Return to home if external

36 Plan organization Keep your printed plans in one place; three-ring binders or file folders. Copies on the computer are your backup, not primary Keep individual plans simple – instead of “Bug-Out to Grandma's”, make it three separate plans, to execute in order: “Load Car”, “Set Up Nightly Camp”, and “Drive to Grandma's” Keep plans short – front and back of one page of paper is ideal Eliminate as many “if” changes from the plans as possible. Make multiple plans, and use the “when” portion to choose between them, to handle variants

37 Plan – additional details Do NOT just “write and forget” your plans. Review them periodically Rehearse your plans wherever possible. This helps you and your family fully understand them, as well as find missing parts and make corrections Make sure everyone has the training and supplies they need to do their part. Also make sure they have the right mindset for what they are doing Try not to have only one person capable of certain tasks. “Two is one, and one is none” applies to people as well as gear

38 Plan considerations – OpSec “Operational Security” or OpSec is important One one hand, you want your friends, family and neighbors to also be prepared. On the other hand, if they are not, but know you are, they could become a problem

39 Planning resources Basics of planning managementhelp.org/planning/index.htm en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning “The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right”, by Atul Gawande Preparedness planning www.ifrc.org/Global/Preplan.pdf foodstoragemadeeasy.net/getting-started/ www.thesurvivalistblog.net/basic-preparedness/

40 Discussion Any questions or comments about plans or planning? NEXT: Resources

41 Resources There are two main categories of resources I will cover Personal resources – personal things you need to have as part of your planning External resources – things you can use to further your planning and your preparedness activities

42 Personal resources As part of your preparedness activities, you need to have easily accessible and portable... Important personal papers – passports, birth certificates, marriage licenses, divorce papers, insurance paperwork, adoption papers, property titles, mortgage paperwork, property tax receipts, etc. Your preparedness plans in a folder or notebook Gear instruction manuals – any piece of equipment that cannot be used or repaired is not useful Reference works – detailing any skills or providing key information

43 External resources: books Survival books and magazines – as a general rule, books on specific techniques or skills are better than a catch-all book attempting to cover everything “The Prepper's Pocket Guide” by Bernie Carr If you can get only one book, consider this one Backwoods Home Magazine “The Backyard Homestead” by Carleen Madigan My 'Preparedness' wish-list on Amazon has 287 items in it, not including the 200+ items on the 'Homesteading' and 'Firearms and Self-Defence' lists

44 External resources: websites Survival websites – great ways to gather information. Use discernment about possible events; do your homework www.survivalweek.com www.thesurvivalistblog.net www.themodernsurvivalist.com ModernSurvivalOnline.com www.resilientcommunities.com preppercentral.com If you find a great skill or tip, print it out. The website “printfriendly.com” makes this easy for most web pages

45 External resources: discussion Discussion forums – useful for asking questions and similar. Always use discretion when contacted directly by someone www.survivalistboards.com/index.php www.survivalandpreparednessforum.com/forum.php www.preppergroups.com/ Email Discussion Lists groups.yahoo.com/group/SurvivalCreed groups.yahoo.com/group/survivalretreat Podcasts www.todayssurvival.com

46 External resources: people Your friends and family – getting them on-board before something happens Workshops and conventions Charlotte PrepCon Heritage Life Skills Self Reliance Expo If you have a question, ask someone who knows something about it Need to grow some food? Ask a farmer! You don't have to tell them why you need the info...

47 Discussion Any questions or comments about anything in the presentation?


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