Presentation on theme: "Hydrogen Production Decisions: Decision Making in View of Differing Stakeholder Preferences Elvin Yuzugullu Doctoral Candidate The George Washington University."— Presentation transcript:
Hydrogen Production Decisions: Decision Making in View of Differing Stakeholder Preferences Elvin Yuzugullu Doctoral Candidate The George Washington University
Problem Statement Hydrogen produced via different methods with varying requirements and consequences Decision makers with diverse interests and values involved Currently no structured approach to evaluate options Complexities and disagreements may hinder transition to the Hydrogen Economy
Solution: Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Model Design, evaluate, and test decision-aiding model to determine: Capability of model to facilitate convergence of divergent viewpoints Capability of model to facilitate convergence of divergent viewpoints How robust selection among hydrogen production alternatives is, with respect to conflicting stakeholder preferences and interests How robust selection among hydrogen production alternatives is, with respect to conflicting stakeholder preferences and interests Effectiveness of model in facilitating hydrogen production decisions Effectiveness of model in facilitating hydrogen production decisions
Value of Research Complex issues involved regarding hydrogen production options Impacts of decisions can vary from beneficial to harmful Critical decisions need to be made Need informed and structured decision making, with all relevant factors considered and an effort towards consensus Decision-aiding framework developed will serve as a valuable tool to aid decision makers with hydrogen decision problems
Methodology 1. Model Design & Development: Identification of diverse set of decision makers Identification of diverse set of decision makers Interactive and anonymous format method to obtain judgments from decision makers Interactive and anonymous format method to obtain judgments from decision makers Development of an “objectives hierarchy” Development of an “objectives hierarchy” Selection of criteria Selection of criteria
Methodology continued.. 2. Model Application, Assessment & Testing: Baseline importance comparison of criteria Baseline importance comparison of criteria 1 st convergence analysis 1 st convergence analysis 2 nd convergence analysis 2 nd convergence analysis 3 rd convergence analysis 3 rd convergence analysis Analysis of results Analysis of results
Model Design & Development - Identification of Decision Makers - Initially, a short list of potential individuals to contact was developed, based on referrals by colleagues and literature research. Purpose of study, scope, and process explained and invited to take part in research
Model Design & Development - Identification of Decision Makers – continued.. 12 individuals from following interest groups participated in research: Hydrogen production companies Hydrogen production companies Automotive manufacturers Automotive manufacturers Oil & gas companies Oil & gas companies Government Government State energy offices State energy offices National labs National labs Utility companies Utility companies Environmental organizations Environmental organizations Infrastructure developers Infrastructure developers Renewable energy financing companies Renewable energy financing companies Fuel cell companies, consulting companies, international organizations, and universities were also contacted, but were not able to participate.
Model Design & Development - Method to Obtain Judgments - “Delphi” technique used Enables idea generation and interaction via several rounds of anonymous surveys Do not need to be in the same place at the same time Reduces group pressure involved in expressing opinions
Model Design & Development -Objectives Hierarchy Development & Selection of Criteria- Objectives Hierarchy: main goal --- objectives (to accomplish goal) --- sub-objectives --- attributes (measure for achieving objectives) Based on literature survey, an illustrative objectives hierarchy (with environmental and cost criteria) presented to decision makers 1 st survey: Decision makers asked to comment on this hierarchy (agree completely, agree but have additions/changes, give completely different set of criteria, or agree but structure differently.
Model Design & Development -Objectives Hierarchy Development & Selection of Criteria- continued… Feedback from decision makers analyzed and organized to provide an objectives hierarchy inclusive of all comments received This hierarchy sent back to decision makers, along with original responses Two more rounds of similar interaction with decision makers Reasonable agreement reached on set of criteria in the objectives hierarchy This objectives hierarchy organized once again to determine optimum level of detail (criteria cannot be too general - but too much detail diverts from main point)
Model Application, Assessment & Testing - Criteria Importance Comparisons - Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) used: pairwise comparison of relative importance of criteria Scale if 1 (equal importance) to 9 (extremely more important) Baseline importance comparison: Decision makers provided judgments on pairwise comparison of criteria in objectives hierarchy 1 st Convergence Analysis: Comparison results from baseline comparison plotted in frequency diagrams, with group average, to show group judgment distribution. This info sent to decision makers to review. Structured phone interview to: Clarify definitions of criteria Clarify definitions of criteria Obtain decision maker line of reasoning for judgments in previous round (baseline importance comparison) Obtain decision maker line of reasoning for judgments in previous round (baseline importance comparison)
Model Application, Assessment & Testing - Criteria Importance Comparisons – continued… 2 nd Convergence Analysis: Changes in group distribution and mean (due to changes in judgments in previous round), along with reasoning provided in summary bullet points, presented to decision makers once again to review and re-consider judgments in light of the new information and group position 3 rd Convergence Analysis: Similar to 2 nd convergence analysis. Number of changes in judgments dropped considerably, indicating stopping point.
Model Application, Assessment & Testing - Analysis of Results – Development of Input Data: 7 alternative hydrogen production options (to represent both fossil and renewable hydrogen production) 7 alternative hydrogen production options (to represent both fossil and renewable hydrogen production) Criteria weights (from all rounds of interactions with decision makers) Criteria weights (from all rounds of interactions with decision makers) Performance of alternatives on criteria (obtained from literature) Performance of alternatives on criteria (obtained from literature)
Model Application, Assessment & Testing - Analysis of Results – continued… Optimization: Input data (alternatives, weights, performance data) used as input to model methodology to determine rankings of alternatives (for each decision maker) Input data (alternatives, weights, performance data) used as input to model methodology to determine rankings of alternatives (for each decision maker) Performed for baseline comparison and final convergence analysis results (weights) Performed for baseline comparison and final convergence analysis results (weights) Goal: to determine convergence based on changes in alternative rankings Goal: to determine convergence based on changes in alternative rankings Statistical Analysis: Correlated samples t-Test done on weights from all rounds of surveys to determine if there was significant change or not
Conclusions & Recommendations Decision-aiding model developed serves as tool for decision makers to: Consider all relevant criteria in a structured manner Consider all relevant criteria in a structured manner Eliminate misconceptions Eliminate misconceptions Understand perspectives of others Understand perspectives of others Improve the decision making process Improve the decision making process Contrary to initial expectations, objectives hierarchy development phase had much more significant effect on convergence of opinion Some more convergence in subsequent weight adjustment steps (based on definitional clarifications and consideration of others’ perspectives), but not as significant
Conclusions & Recommendations continued… Objectives hierarchy development: Enhanced decision makers’ understanding of the issues Enhanced decision makers’ understanding of the issues Helped clarify and structure their thinking Helped clarify and structure their thinking Facilitated convergence of opinion Facilitated convergence of opinion Decision-aiding model developed may be applied to any type and scale of decision on hydrogen production alternatives (especially when data on actual project alternatives are available), such as selecting among: Small-scale options Small-scale options National policy options National policy options Options for specific locations Options for specific locations
Bio Sketch Elvin Yuzugullu B.Sc., Environmental Engineering – Yιldιz Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey M.Sc., Environmental Engineering – West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV Intern, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)’s Energy Analysis Office, June 2002 – August 2003: worked on database of grid-connected renewable energy systems D.Sc. (to be obtained, May 2005) – The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. (Engineering Mgt. & Systems Eng. Dept.; Environmental & Energy Mgt. Program)
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