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2010 IOR/EOR Global Market Overview; The Economic Potential of Existing Unconventional Resources and Marginal Fields © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 2012 Kader Dicko – Senior Analyst
Infield Systems – www.infield.com © Infield Systems Ltd. 2011 2 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Established over 20 years ago – specialist firm in the offshore energy sector (data and market Analysis) Please visit us at OTC – Booth 8851 (Free Maps)
Contents Global Macro Overview IOR/EOR Global Overview - “Extending the project lifetime of mature fields” Conclusions 3 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012
4 Global Macro Overview © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012
5 Despite Slowdown, Emerging Economies Will Continue to Drive Demand Source: IEA China and India are leading the pack (~50% of the global growth)
6 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Supply is Struggling to Keep Pace with Global Demand Change from previous year Source: EIA
7 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Depleting Reserves in Mature Basins (North Sea)
8 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 UKCS Production Norway Production Norway Production 2011 Oil Production Y-O-Y Decline: 7% Gas Production Y-O-Y Decline: 5% Oil Production peaked in 2000 and Gas in 2010 UKCS Production 2011 Oil Production Y-O-Y Decline: 18% Gas Production Y-O-Y Decline: 22% Oil Production peaked in 1999 and Gas in 2000 Source: NPD (Norway) and DECC (UK)
Depleting Reserves in Mature Basins (GoM) 9 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Field Depletion in the Gulf of Mexico
10 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Remaining Reserves in Harder to Reach Places - Deepwater Hydrocarbon Field Discoveries, Water Depth and Reserve Size Average size of discoveries decreases with depth, more fields will have to be developed as a result 1,000 metres
11 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Remaining Reserves in Harder to Reach Places – Arctic Circle
Further, Deeper & Harsher 1960’s 12 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012
13 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Further, Deeper & Harsher 2000’s
14 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Frontier and Emerging Regions
15 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Geopolitical Concerns – Iran Nuclear Crisis
Geopolitical Concerns – The Receipt from The Arab Spring © Infield Systems Ltd. 2011 16 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Countries in the table now require an additional ~U$20-30/bbl to balance the books Saudi Arabia is looking for $90-100/bbl, up from $70/bbl previously to pay for its promised social welfare schemes CountryCosts to GDPCosts to Public FinancesTotal Costs LibyaUS$7.67bnUS$6.49bnUS$14.2bn SyriaUS$6.07bnUS$21.22bnUS$27.3bn EgyptUS$4.27bnUS$5.52bnUS$9.79bn TunisiaUS$2.03bnUS$0.49bnUS$2.52bn BahrainUS$0.39bnUS$0.69bnUS$1.09bn YemenUS$0.12bn US$0.98bn Sub-TotalsUS$20.56bnUS$35.28bnUS$55.84bn
17 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Oil Price Volatility and Spread Between WTI and Brent Narrower Spread Oil price premiums maintained by the “Iranian nuclear crisis”
18 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 High Oil Prices Precede Recessions Source: EIA International Crude Oil Prices and Global GDP Growth High oil prices are dangerous for a fragile global economy
Global Offshore Capex 2012-2016 – Healthy Capex Going Forward 19 Global Offshore Capex: US$539bn Australasia:US$43bn Latin America:US$90bn North America:US$65bn Asia:US$92bn Europe:US$99bn Middle East:US$54bn Shallow 1,499m Global Offshore Capex includes Detailed Engineering, Development Drilling, Installation, Procurement and Construction © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Africa:US$96bn
20 IOR/EOR Global Overview “Extending the project lifetime of mature fields” © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012
© Infield Systems Ltd. 2011 21 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 With Supply Constraints IOR/EOR is Key to Raise Recovery Factors unconventional production, renewable energy Source: EIA
22 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 IOR/EOR More Relevant Than Ever – Why? Approximately 70% of global oil production originates from mature fields (approximately 35% of the oil in place is recoverable through conventional production methods) No more easy oil plays (geologically complex reservoirs in deeper, more remote and/or harsh environments) Most EOR projects are onshore, however with recent advances in technology, offshore projects now offer considerable opportunities Higher oil prices improve the project economics of IOR/EOR applications, mostly offshore EOR not restricted to brownfield projects, increasing applications for greenfield projects (e.g. heavy oil) Conventional RecoveryEnhanced Recovery IOR (improved oil recovery) Primary Recovery e.g. natural flow, artificial lift Secondary Recovery e.g. waterflood, artificial pressure maintenance (WAG) EOR (enhanced oil recovery) Tertiary Recovery e.g. Thermal, polymer, solvent
23 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Major IOR/EOR Challenges Offshore Environmental challenges (e.g. pressure, weather) Geological constraints (e.g. lithology of the reservoir) Cost (e.g. higher cost base for infrastructures offshore compared to onshore) Increased logistics and maintenance (e.g. remoteness, access to injectants) Risk management (e.g. geologic carbon sequestration leakage risk) Mostly Water and Gas injections methods used offshore Statoil Tordis - IOR Subsea Module Source: Picture courtesy of Statoil
24 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Global Subsea Well Injections 2012-2020 Subsea Completions (unit) by Injectants 2012-2020Subsea Completions (unit) by Regions 2012-2020 Global Subsea Completions Capex (US$m) 2012-2020
25 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Conclusions For now, IOR/EOR applications are mostly used onshore, but great potential offshore High oil prices support the sanctioning of more IOR/EOR applications offshore, although environmental limitations are still a major concern The development (through technology and innovation) of IOR/EOR applications is crucial to fill the growing gap between declining global oil production and emerging economies oil consumption
26 Questions???? © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012 Thank You
The information contained in this document is believed to be accurate, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Infield Systems Limited as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of any information contained in it, and we do not accept any responsibility in relation to such information whether fact, opinion or conclusion that the reader may draw. The views expressed are those of the individual contributors and do not represent those of the publishers. Some of the statements contained in this document are forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements include but are not limited to, statements concerning estimates of recoverable hydrocarbons, expected hydrocarbon prices, expected costs, numbers of development units, statements relating to the continued advancement of the industry’s projects and other statements which are not historical facts. When used in this document, and in other published information of the Company, the words such as "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "potential," "should," and similar expressions are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risk and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Various factors could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements including the potential for the industry’s projects to experience technical or mechanical problems or changes in financial decisions, geological conditions in the reservoir may not result in a commercial level of oil and gas production, changes in product prices and other risks not anticipated by the Company. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature, they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Forward Looking Disclaimer 27 © Infield Systems Ltd. 2012
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