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“ The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present. ” Paul Saffo Six.

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Presentation on theme: "“ The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present. ” Paul Saffo Six."— Presentation transcript:

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2 “ The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present. ” Paul Saffo Six Rules for Accurate Effective Forecasting Harvard Business Review, July-August 2007, Paul Saffo Six Rules for Accurate Effective Forecasting Harvard Business Review, July-August 2007,

3 PINE FOREST (natural or planted) CRUDE GUM (CG) (Pine oleoresin or Pine resin) Pine Tapping Timber Paper Chips Kraft Process Kraft Process Black Liquor TALL OIL ROSIN (TORA) SULFATE TURPENTINE (CST) Industry GUM ROSIN (GR) (CGR, IGR, BGR) GUM TURPENTINE (GT) Rosin Plant Industry ROSIN RESINS (RR) POLITERPENIC RESINS (PTR) TURPENTINE DERIVATIVES Pine Chemicals Alex CUNNINGHAM 30 OCTOBER 2012

4 Pine Forest Pine resin Tapping Kraft Process Kraft Process Black Liquor Tall Oil Rosin Sulfate Turpentine Industry Turpentine Industry Rosin Resins Polyterpenic Resins Industry Rosin Petroleum Petrochemistry Pygas (C5, C9, DCPD) Hydrocarbon Resins C5 or C9 Industry “Pine Chemicals” TACKIFIER RESINS Alex CUNNINGHAM 30 OCTOBER 2012

5  Volumes and Prices  China the #1!  2012 into a “New Normal”  Field open for new(old) players

6  Volumes and Prices  China the #1!  2012 into a “New Normal”  Field open for new(old) players

7 TACKIFIER RESINS [KTON] ROSIN RESINS1.090 HYDROCARBON RESINS POLYTERPENIC RESINS 80 TOTAL2.220 ROSIN RESINS [KTON] GUM ROSIN690 TALL OIL ROSIN390 WOOD ROSIN10 TOTAL1.090 HYDROCARBONIC [KTON] ASIA452 NORTH AMERICA241 EUROPE252 REST OF THE WORLD 105 TOTAL1.050 POLYTERPENIC [KTON] USA30 EUROPE20 REST OF THE WORLD 30 TOTAL80 TACKIFIER RESINS – GLOBAL VOLUMES IN KTON (2011) Source: AR Eldorado (2011) & (2012) Baumassy (2012). Alex CUNNINGHAM 30 OCTOBER 2012

8 China Brazil Indonesia Vietnam India Mexico Argentina Other TOTAL ,3 %- 24,6 %- 5,1 %+ 3,4 %+ 19,7 %- 32,2 % GUM ROSIN – GLOBAL PRODUCTION [TM/YEAR] Surces: Song Lifeng (2009) & (2012) Rosineb (2009) AR Eldorado (2011) & (2012) Baumassy (2012) % ?! Alex CUNNINGHAM 30 OCTOBER 2012

9 Province Yunnan (YN) Guangxi (GX) Guangdong (GD) Hubei (HU) Jiangxi (JX) Fujian (FJ) Anhui (AH) Henan (HE) Guizhou (GZ) Hunan (HU) Sichuan (SC) Hainan (HA) 2555 Shanxi (SX) 5553 Chongqing (CQ) 3533 Zhejiang (ZJ) TOTAL ,5%11,5%9,7%6,8%10,2%19,6%-0,2%-28,7%-6,1%+3,9+23,4-36,6 Sources: AR Eldorado (2011) & (2012) Song Lifeng, Nanjing (Novembro 2009). Zhao Mingui (2011). ROSINNET (2010). [1.000 TM/YEAR] Current Production Record ! GUM ROSIN – CHINESE PRODUCTION [TM/YEAR]

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11 Volumes and Prices Historic price peak China the #1; Brazil and Indonesia #2; plus many many others…

12  Volumes and Prices  China the #1!  2012 into a “New Normal”  Field open for new(old) players

13 Wuhile Stadium Shenyang, LN, China Build in: 1998 Blown in: years! Olimpic Stadium Shenyang, LN, China Build in: 2003 Blown in: years!

14 PREÇOS DO BREU vs. COMMODITTIES

15 SA LN GX FJ GZ GD ZJ HU HBAH SC YN HN JX GUM ROSIN – CHINESE PRODUCTION MAP

16 GUANGZHOU (Cidade) Salário Mínimo (RMB/mês) Temporário Construção (RMB/dia) 70 ~ 9090 ~ ~ ~ ~ 200 GUANGDONG (Provincia) Temporário Rural (RMB/dia) 50 ~ 7060 ~ 8070 ~ ~ ~ 150 EVOLUÇÃO SALARIAL - CHINA 6,3 RMB = 1 USD 3,2 RMB = 1 R$

17 CHINA – PINE TAPPER 1 WORKER 1500 TREES 2 KG PER TREE/YEAR PINE TREE “RENT” 6 RMB / TREE YEAR = (9.000) “ADMINISTRATION” COST 500 RMB / MT PINE RESIN * 3 TON = (1.500) SALE OF PINE RESIN TO ROSIN PLANT 3 ton * RMB / MT = =========== NET RMB / 25 DAYS * 6 MONTH = 96 RMB/DAY

18 CHINA – PINE TAPPER 1 WORKER 1500 TREES 2 KG PER TREE/YEAR PINE TREE “RENT” 6 RMB / TREE YEAR = (9.000) “ADMINISTRATION” COST 500 RMB / MT PINE RESIN * 3 TON = (1.500) SALE OF PINE RESIN TO ROSIN PLANT 3 ton * RMB / MT = =========== NET RMB / 25 DAYS * 6 MONTH = 96 RMB/DAY CURRENT PINE RESIN PRICE IN CHINA

19 GUANGZHOU (City) Minimun Wage (RMB/month) Construction Temporary (RMB/day) 70 ~ 9090 ~ ~ ~ ~ 200 GUANGDONG (Province) Rural Temporary (RMB/day) 50 ~ 7060 ~ 8070 ~ ~ ~ 150 CHINA – SALARY EVOLUTION QUINQUENAL PLAN 2011/ % PER YEAR! 2016  2570 RMB/month

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21 China the #1 = The “Perfect Storm” Speculation Limited forest resources Hand labor scarcity

22  Volumes and Prices  China the #1!  2012 into a “New Normal”  Field open for new(old) players

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25 2012 into a “New Normal” Example: Brazil vs. China export market

26  Volumes and Prices  China the #1!  2012 into a “New Normal”  Field open for new(old) players

27 Field open for new (old) players Demand for “Pine Chemicals” Sustainable supply Competitive price Modern tapping technique

28 Thank you!


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