Presentation on theme: "CSME Integration Possibilities - An Oil and Gas Perspective T. M. Boopsingh Sherbourne Conference Centre Barbados, 29 th June 2006."— Presentation transcript:
CSME Integration Possibilities - An Oil and Gas Perspective T. M. Boopsingh Sherbourne Conference Centre Barbados, 29 th June 2006
Outline International Energy Overview - Geographic, Economic and Global Realities A Brief Review of Inputs - Geographic and Regional Overview - The Trinidad and Tobago Downstream industry - A Regional demand Analysis The Way Forward – Regional & National Issues -The Opportunities
International Perspectives - The Region in the World Western Energy Security World Economic Growth China & India make the new difference Saudi vs Iraqi Resources US vs European/Japanese Interests Russian Oil and now GAS Other US Needs, Interests & Inputs Imports, Transportation, Sales, Technology
The Caribbean’s Energy Needs Bulk vs Supplemental Urban vs Rural Primary vs Secondary Energy Electricity vs Transportation Medium term vs Long term
World Energy Demand to 2025 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2004; EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Projected Contributions from "New" Renewable Energy Sources in 2020 ETW "Minimum"ETW "Maximum" Mtoe% of total Mtoe% of total Modern biomass 243 45561 42 Solar 109 20355 26 Other (wind, geothermal, small hydro, waste) 187 35429 32 Total 539 1001345 100 % of Total Primary Energy Consumption 3-4 8 -12 Source: WEC’s ETW 2000. NB. In 1990 new renewables contributed 164 Mtoe (1.9% to total energy demand).
The Coming Age of Natural Gas è Infrastructure issues è Gas Hydrates è Fuel Cells
Sources of Production for the Caribbean Sections 2a & 2b
The Sources of Energy - Geographically US Gulf Coast Venezuela* Trinidad and Tobago# - CSME member Colombia Mexico* West Africa# Other, inc. Brazil, Ecuador, Middle East, etc. * Oil Exporter # Oil & Gas Exporter
Pricing Natural Gas in T&T Net back Pricing based on Product sales prices – LNG, Methanol, Ammonia, Alternate Fuel Pricing e.g. Fuel Oil/Crude Oil Net back Pricing based on Product sales prices - Steel; Aluminium ? Domestic Pricing - TTEC, Small Manufacturers.
Proposed New Plants in Trinidad Alutrint Aluminium Smelter Aluminium Wire, Rods, Wheels, Parts AnsaMcal/Terra UAN Ammonia complex Clico Energy et. al. UAM Ammonia complex Eastern Caribbean Gas Pipeline Alcoa Smelter New Refinery at Pointe-a-Pierre Westlake Ethylene Complex, etc,
Role of Indigenous Resources in Meeting Energy Demand - 2000 Country/ItemHydro in Power Generation % Oil/Gas Production in Petroleum Demand % Suriname 74 82 Dominica 50 - Haiti 47 - St. Vincent 32 - Dominican Rep. 8 - Jamaica 2 - Cuba 1 31 (55% by 2004) Barbados - 19 Trinidad & Tobago - 190 Source: T.A. Byer
Petroleum Product Demand in 2000 (BBls/Day) – North Caribbean Markets Product/ Country GasolineDistillateRFOTotalOf which Power-% Cuba10,80043,80093,100160,50037 Jamaica11,50010,90040,15065,60041 Haiti2,4006,95031010,33013 Dom. Rep. 27,27052,60024,800125,06031 Puerto Rico 62,95024,25060,000170,00045 Source: T.A. Byer
Petroleum Product Demand in 2000 (BBls/day) – Eastern Caribbean Markets Product/ Country GasolineDistillateRFOTotalOf which Power-% Guadeloupe3,1504,8003,20012,40031 Dominica3002002060025 Martinique2,7505,7004,05013,40033 St. Lucia8501,950202,95040 St. Vincent450650-1,20023 Barbados1,9005,7502,70010,80031 Grenada540710-1,46030 Source: T.A. Byer
Conclusions of Macro-Economic & Petroleum Demand Analysis Power Sector is the prime activity for displacing liquid fuels – represented by few corporate entities which facilitates implementation Transport sector fuels – gasoline, Avjet and diesel oil – substitution more difficult. Source: T.A. Byer
Final System Layout Technical Considerations Larger markets and less risky service via Eastern segment to Barbados Western segment’s small diameter (5”) facilitates minimizing impact of geo-technical hazards in servicing Grenada and St Vincent. Not Commercial. Interconnect point in Martinique to re-distribute to Central & Northern systems Access to Fort de France markets More difficult subsea terrain characterizes Northern route to Guadeloupe and Dominica Central Eastern Western Northern
T&T – Its Role in the Hemisphere US LNG Imports Largest world Ammonia and Methanol exporter Deep Water Prospects
U.S. LNG Imports 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 20002005201020152020 BCFD Projected Range of Imports Cambridge Energy Research Associates “New Realities, New Risks: North American Gas and Power Scenarios Through 2020”
The Way Forward Long Term – 1. Solar inc. Photo Voltaic 2. Other inc. Conservation, Energy Security, Diversification Private Capital - The key to prioritization Medium Term – Natural Gas & Bio-fuels a) Eastern Caribbean Pipeline b) LNG for Northern Caribbean Domestic Demand Management inc. Price Differentiation, Supply Diversification, Affordability, Trade Cooperation, Conservation
Regional and National Structures REAP – a critical Institutional product Cooperating within the ACS Using Market related pricing Partnering J/V’s and/with IOC’s Facilitate Refining, Shipping & Trading Establish credible Regulatory Agencies
New downstream potential Steel and Steel products Aluminium and its products Gas based Petroleum Products Natural Gas in Cooling CNG in land transportation Ethylene based Plastics
New Trading potential Alumina and Aluminium products Forest and wood products New Petroleum Products Fertilisers and by-products Plastics
THE END Oh to be like this! Oh to be like this! Thank Thank you for your attention. ur attention.