Presentation on theme: "Asian American Survey - Florida Findings from a Survey of 700 Asian American Voters nationwide plus 100 each in FL, IL, NV, and VA Celinda Lake, David."— Presentation transcript:
Asian American Survey - Florida Findings from a Survey of 700 Asian American Voters nationwide plus 100 each in FL, IL, NV, and VA Celinda Lake, David Mermin, and Shilpa Grover Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066
2 Methodology Lake Research Partners designed and conducted this telephone survey of 713 registered Asian American and Pacific Islander voters nationwide, with oversamples of 100 voters in Florida, Illinois, Nevada, and Virginia. Interviews were conducted April 5-15, 2012. Sampling error is +/- 3.7%. For Florida, we conducted 140 interviews, with a margin of error of +/-8.3%. Telephone numbers for the survey were drawn randomly from voter files. The sample was stratified geographically by region based on the proportion of voters in each region. The data were weighted by gender, age, region, and race/ethnicity.
3 Asian Americans are more divided politically in Florida than in other states. Asian American voters in Florida are more Republican than in other states. 46% say they are Democrats, 20% independents, and 33% Republicans. (Nationwide, more than half say they are Democrats, and only 16% are Republicans.) Florida Asian American voters are very negative about the direction of the country for people like them – only 20% say things are going in the right direction, and 62% say the wrong track. Impressions of the country’s direction overall are also net negative, with 37% saying things are going in the right direction, 47% wrong track, and 15% unsure. – They are also more pessimistic about the economy, with 45% saying it’s fair and 35% saying it’s poor. More than half (55%) say that Obama’s job performance is just fair or poor. A majority still support Obama (57%), though a higher number than usual support Romney (29%), and 12% are undecided. On the generic congressional ballot, the margin is closer—43% of Floridian Asian American voters support the Democratic candidate, 33% support the Republican, and 23% are undecided—which means both parties in Florida can make gains, and neither can take Florida for granted. – Asian Americans are +9 points more likely in Florida to say that they have been reached out to by the Republican Party, at 26%. Fewer Asian Americans than nationwide (-5 points) say they have been contacted by the Democratic Party, at 18%-- though this number is within the margin of error. While nearly half of Florida Asian American voters say they are more enthusiastic to vote this year, a third say they are less enthusiastic. Even so, 87% say they are almost certain to vote.
5 Demographics of registered Asian American voters in Florida Language Spoken At Home: Only English – 35% Mandarin – 8% Korean – 8% Hindi – 15% Vietnamese – 10% Cantonese – 7% Tagalog – 6% Hmong – 0% Other – 16% Race: Chinese – 15% Indian – 26% Filipino – 16% Korean – 12% Vietnamese – 13% Japanese – 3% Other – 11% Gender: Male – 49% Female – 51% Party Identification: Democrat – 46% Republican – 33% Independent/Don’t know/ Refused – 20% Voting Pattern: Democratic – 43% Republican – 28% Independent/Don’t know/ Refused – 29% Employment Status: Employed full time – 55% Employed part time – 10% Unemployed – 7% Retired – 17% Homemaker – 6% Marital Status: Married – 71% Single – 19% Unmarried with partner – 2% Separated/divorced – 2% Widowed – 4% Kids under 18: Yes – 38% No – 60% Age: Under 30 – 19% 30-39 – 19% 40-49 – 20% 50-64 – 25% 65 and over – 13% Education: HS or less – 20% Some college – 21% College graduate – 43% Post-graduate – 9%
6 Almost 90% of Asian Americans report being almost certain to vote this November. This indicates a potential for record turnout among the Asian American community this year. Although it is some time from now, what are the chances of you voting in the election for President, Congress, and other offices this November – are you almost CERTAIN to vote, will you PROBABLY vote, are the chances about 50-50, are you probably NOT going to vote, or are you DEFINITELY not going to vote?
7 Most Asian American voters in Florida were born outside the U.S., and of those, most immigrated as young adults or younger. Were you born in the United States or were you born in another country? If born in another country: How old were you when you moved to the United States?
8 Of those who were born in the U.S., four out of five have immigrant parents, a higher number than nationwide totals. Was either your mother or your father born in a country other than the United States? *Asked among those who were born in the United States
9 While most Asian American voters use TV as a news source, 46% use internet and social media. Newspapers are also used by 28% of Asian Americans. Thinking about news, which of the following sources would you say you use to get news about politics in the United States?
10 Close to one in five Asian Americans in Florida consume at least some of their news in an Asian language. And is the news you watch or read mostly in English, mostly in another language, or an equal mix of both?
How Asian Americans Feel About the United States
12 Asian Americans in Florida have a dramatically negative opinion of how things are going for people like them as compared to Asian Americans nationwide. Thinking about how things are going in the country, do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Thinking about how things are going in the country for people like you, do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? *Asked of half the sample How things are going in the country* How things are going in the country for people like you* -42 -10
13 80% of Asian Americans in Florida have negative impressions of the economy. How would you rate how the U.S. economy is doing right now—would you say it is excellent, good, just fair, or poor?
14 Florida Asian American voters are split on Obama’s job performance. How would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President? Is he doing an excellent, good, just fair, or poor job?
16 Although Obama and the Democratic Party are net positive among Floridian Asian Americans, the favorability ratings for Obama and the Democratic Party are lower than nationwide, and Romney and the Republican Party are rated higher than we see elsewhere. Now I ’ d like to ask you about some people and organizations who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you haven’t heard of them , or if you don’t know enough about them to have an impression , just say so, and we will move on. Net -7 +27 +20 -11 Unfavorable Favorable NO/NH 20 5 12 15
17 A majority of Asian Americans support Obama, while nearly a third support Romney. 12% are undecided. Assuming Mitt Romney is the nominee for the Republican party, if the election for President was held today and the candidates were: President Barack Obama, Democrat and Former Governor Mitt Romney, Republican, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? +28 *Asked of 114 respondents. 26 received a similar question on Obama vs. Santorum before he dropped out.
18 Just under half of Asian American voters in Florida report voting for Obama in 2008, while one in five say they did not vote. Thinking about past elections, did you get a chance to vote in the 2008 presidential election? If so, did you vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?
19 Asian Americans in Florida are more divided than Asian American voters nationally on the congressional ballot (52% Democratic, 37% Republican, 31% undecided), with only ten points separating the Democratic candidate from the Republican. And if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district, or are you undecided? +10
20 On values and fairness, Asian Americans say the Democratic Party is better than the Republican Party. Democrats also have the advantage on health care, education, and immigration. However, a significant number think there is no party difference or don’t know which party is doing a better job. Now I’d like to ask you about some issues that might be important in the election. For each, please tell me whether you think the Democratic Party or the Republican Party is doing a better job with this issue, or if there is no difference. Do you feel the Democratic Party or the Republican Party is doing a better job with this issue? Is that a MUCH better job or SOMEWHAT? No Diff/ DK 30 25 24 25 27 Republican Party Democratic Party
21 On economic and national security issues, Asian Americans are less sure but still favor the Democrats. A plurality does not favor either party on the deficit. Now I’d like to ask you about some issues that might be important in the election. For each, please tell me whether you think the Democratic Party or the Republican party is doing a better job with this issue, or if there is no difference. Do you feel the Democratic Party or the Republican Party is doing a better job with this issue? Is that a MUCH better job or SOMEWHAT? No Diff/ DK 35 Republican Party Democratic Party 32 30 38
23 Asian American voters in Florida report that they have been contacted by the Republican Party in higher numbers than Asian Americans nationwide (26% in Florida, 17% nationally). Still, the majority have not been contacted by either party. Have you been contacted by the Democratic party/Republican party in the past two years a great deal, some, a little, or not at all? By the Democratic PartyBy the Republican Party 18 26
24 Nearly half of Asian American voters say they are more enthusiastic to vote this year than in previous elections—however, a third say they are less enthusiastic. Compared to previous elections, would you say you are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 than usual, or less enthusiastic than usual? [IF MORE OR LESS ENTHUSIASTIC: Is that much more/less enthusiastic or somewhat?] +16
25 Almost a fifth of respondents who speak another language say they would be more likely to vote if they had in-language assistance. For future elections, would in-language assistance make you more or less likely to vote in elections, or would it make no difference? *Asked of 96 respondents who took the survey in another language or say they speak another language at home
27 Asian Americans in Florida give Obama a 38 point lead over Romney. That would provide a 33,000 vote margin for Obama if there is a similar turnout pattern as 2008. However, more than 1 in 10 remain undecided, and both parties have opportunities for additional contact and outreach. Assuming Mitt Romney is the nominee for the Republican party, if the election for President was held today and the candidates were: President Barack Obama, Democrat and Former Governor Mitt Romney, Republican, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? +38 *Asked of 114 respondents 88,000 Asian Americans voted in the November 2008 election of 8,453,000 total voters in Florida.
Celinda Lake firstname.lastname@example.org David Mermin email@example.com Shilpa Grover firstname.lastname@example.org Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066