Presentation on theme: "Ciruli Associates C olorado: B attleground S tate in P residential Y ear By Floyd Ciruli Data Sponsored by Economic Development Council of Colorado November."— Presentation transcript:
Ciruli Associates C olorado: B attleground S tate in P residential Y ear By Floyd Ciruli Data Sponsored by Economic Development Council of Colorado November 2007
1 Ciruli Associates 2007 1A Maintenance fund71%63%54% 1B Health bond767161 1C Library bond666360 1D Streets bond827167 1E Parks bond666161 1F Public buildings bond645553 1G Cultural buildings bond656155 1H BCH/DMNS bond565652 1I Public safety bond746863 Mean68.963.258.4 Ciruli Associates Polls and Election Results Denver Bonds and Revenue Fund - 2007 Sept. 10Oct. 10Nov. 6 PollPollResults Ciruli Associates 2007 Denver Voters Support the Package
2 Ciruli Associates 2007 Saturday, Oct. 13 1 st ballots arrive Monday, Oct. 226,976 Monday, Oct. 2925,132 Monday, Nov. 565,478 Tuesday, Nov. 693,684 Slow Return of Denver Mail-back Election Ballots Ballots Returned DateCumulative Ciruli Associates 2007 28,000 ballots arrive last 2 days
3 Ciruli Associates 2007 Mood of Electorate Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 LA Times/Bloomberg, N1037, 2007 ColoradoU.S. Colorado voters - state optimism; National voters - national pessimism Questions:Generally, would you say things in Colorado are going in the right direction or do you feel things here have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?
4 Ciruli Associates 2007 Economic Slowdown Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 National economy “getting worse” Colorado mostly “the same” Questions:How about the state economy over the next year, do you think the state economy will be getting better, getting worse or staying the same? Thinking about the national economy over the next year, do you think the national economy will be getting better, getting worse or staying the same?
5 Ciruli Associates 2007 Job Performance of President and Governor Rate the performance of Ritter…? Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question:Do you approve or disapprove of the job President George W. Bush is doing? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Ritter is handling his job as governor of Colorado? BushRitter 2006 approve Bush – 40%, Owens – 60% U.S. Bush – 32%, Gallup, Nov. 2007
6 Ciruli Associates 2007 Ritter and Partisan Approval Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question:Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Ritter is handling his job as governor of Colorado? In September, Ritter received considerable Republican and unaffiliated approval Rate the performance of Ritter…?
7 Ciruli Associates 2007 The Terminator Becomes the Hulk Politics and Businesses Go Green Schwarzenegger – Time Magazine cover: “He’s become a global salesman for the war on carbon.” Ritter – The Colorado Promise: “ Lead Colorado toward self-sufficiency by promoting alternative energy, encouraging cleaner ways of extracting and using fossil fuels, and rewarding efficiency and conservation.” Hickenlooper – Climate Action Panel and Plan: “ Smart choices on energy use, grow economy, foster environmental health, leave legacy of sustainability.” Xcel – Second year on Dow Jones Sustainability Index for North America: Richard Kelly – “ Commitment to environmental performance and social responsibility.”
8 Ciruli Associates 2007 Vote for U.S. Senate Schaffer vs. Udall Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question:U.S. Senator Wayne Allard has announced he will not seek re-election in 2008. There are currently two candidates who are running or considering running for the U.S. Senate. If you had to vote today for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Mark Udall, the Democrat, or Bob Schaffer, the Republican, or some other candidate? [Rotated] Who do you support…? October 2006 Ritter – 43%, Beauprez – 33% Mark Udall Bob Shaffer
9 Ciruli Associates 2007 Udall and Schaffer Support Among Partisans Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Note: Aug. 15, 2007 registration: 998,897 Republicans, 860,407 Democrat and 967,853 unaffiliated UdallSchaffer Who do you support…? 135,000 more registered Republicans
10 Ciruli Associates 2007 Second Congressional District Money 1.Jared Polis$828,000 2.Joan Fitz Gerald624,000 3.Chris Lauzen (R)546,000 (Hastert) 4.Bill Foster (D)541,000 (Hastert) 5.Will Shafroth509,000 Colorado has Top Three Fundraisers in Country Democrats 7 to 3 in Top 10 CQ, Nov. 2007
11 Ciruli Associates 2007 Hillary Clinton29%48% Barack Obama2321 John Edwards2312 Bill Richardson52 Dennis Kucinich34 Joe Biden12 Chris Dodd11 Don’t know159 Clinton: 52% favorable, 45% unfavorable, Gallup 2007 Colorado Presidential Politics Who will you vote for…? Ciruli Associates, Dem. N174, Rep. N212, 2007 Gallup, Nov. 2007 Question:Colorado does not have a presidential primary. But if a (Republican/Democratic) primary for president were being held today in Colorado, as I read the following candidate names, please tell me who you would vote for? [Rotated] Fred Thompson27%19% Rudy Giuliani1928 John McCain1113 Mitt Romney812 Tom Tancredo72 Mike Huckabee510 Ron Paul15 Don’t know168 DemocratColo.USRepublicanColo.US Hillary Clinton Fred Thompson
12 Ciruli Associates 2007 Early States and Colorado Population growth,2%6%24%10% 2000-2006to 3.0 milto 1.3 milto 2.5 milto 4.7 mil Growth in Hispanics115,00030,000610,000926,000 Membership in unions11%10%15%9% DemocraticClintonClintonClintonClinton Front-runner1 pts Ahead13 pts ahead23 pts ahead6 pts ahead RepublicanRomneyRomneyGiulianiThompson Front-runner2 pts ahead14 pts ahead8 pts ahead8 pts ahead New IndicatorIowaHampshireNevadaColorado Colorado compared to early primary/caucus states Wall St. Journal U.S. Census RCP, Nov. 2007 Ciruli Associates 2007
13 Ciruli Associates 2007 Colorado Becomes More Competitive, But Still Republican Tilt 1980-198858%56% Reagan/Bush I 1992-199641%39% Bush I/Dole 2000-200452%49% Bush II/Bush II 2008?? ? ColoradoNational RepublicanRepublicanRepublican CandidatePresidentialPresidential and DateAverageAverage Almanac of American Politics Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
14 Ciruli Associates 2007 Top Issue for Governor and Legislature to Address Question:What is the top issue you want the governor and state legislature to address? [Multiple answers] Immigration26%28% 9% Health care price/accessibility15813 Education/funding11204 Transportation76-- Economy61122 Tax burdens65-- Education reform61-- Environment441 Growth43-- War4--33 Water shortage/supply24-- 20072006US Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006 Gallup, Oct. 2007 Immigration on top, health care moves second, war appears? What is your top issue for governor and legislature…?
15 Ciruli Associates 2007 Important State Policies to Compete for Jobs and Maintain Strong Economy Ciruli Associates, N504, June 2007 Question:Thinking about Colorado’s ability to compete for jobs and maintain a strong economy, as I read the following list of public policy issues, please tell me if you believe the issue is very important, somewhat important, not very important or not at all important to Colorado’s ability to compete for jobs and maintain a strong economy. If you don’t have a view, just say so. [Rotated] Is it important Colorado has…? Water, education and transportation critical to jobs/economy
16 Ciruli Associates 2007 Amending Colorado’s Constitution Should it be harder to change the Constitution…? Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question:The Colorado Constitution is eight times as long as the U.S. Constitution. The Colorado Constitution is one of the easiest among the states to amend by the initiative process and only requires the same number of signatures as it does to pass a simple state statute by initiative. Some citizens believe it is too easy to change the Colorado Constitution and it should be harder to amend the state constitution. Others believe the rules to amend the state constitution are working and should not be made harder. Do you believe it should be harder to amend the Colorado Constitution or remain the same? Slim majority support making harder – 53% Sample, wording and view of change
17 Ciruli Associates 2007 New Rules to Amend the Constitution Should the rules be changed…? Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question:As I read the following list of ideas to make it more difficult to amend the state constitution than it is to approve a new state statute, please tell me if you definitely support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or definitely oppose it. If you don’t have a view, just say so. [Rotated] Should be regional representation
18 Ciruli Associates 2007 State TABOR “Time-Out” Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question:In 2005, there was a proposal on the ballot, Referendum C, that provided for a 5-year “time-out” for TABOR refunds. It allows the state to keep all the tax dollars it collects for five years. The money was pledged to be used for education, transportation and health care. There may be a future ballot initiative to extend the TABOR “time out” for five more years, or until 2015. As of today, would you support or oppose extending the TABOR “time out” and letting the state keep and spend all the revenue it collects for five more years until 2015? Support a future “time-out”…? No urgency, no need identified
19 Ciruli Associates 2007 Colorado Political Leader Ratings Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question:Let me ask you your rating of local and national political leaders. As I read the following list of political leaders, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so. [Rotated] Rate the politician very or somewhat favorable…? Ritter and Hickenlooper dominate the landscape State officials more popular than federal Udall and Schaffer close