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THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION Answering questions and testing hypotheses on data for the presidential elections in the.

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Presentation on theme: "THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION Answering questions and testing hypotheses on data for the presidential elections in the."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION Answering questions and testing hypotheses on data for the presidential elections in the United States of America from 1980 to 2008 Wout Ultee Radboud University Nijmegen November 11, 2008 Course Contemporary sociological theories Second bachelor year

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3 WHY DID OBAMA WIN FROM McCAIN? HE GOT MORE MONEY FOR TV-ADS THAN McCAIN BUT WHY DID OBAMA GET MORE MONEY THAN McCAIN? THERE ARE MORE RESOURCES THAN MONEY OTHER RESOURCES ARE SYMBOLIC AND AN EFFECTIVE SYMBOLIC RESOURCE IS CHARISMA OR FLUENCY, THE GIFT OF THE GAB, RHETORICS SYMBOLIC RESOURCES, YES, OBAMA USED THEM AND OBAMA OBTAINED MONEY IN THAT WAY

4 BUT OBAMA NOT ONLY UTILIZED SYMBOLIC RESOURCES OBAMA ALSO FACED SYMBOLIC HANDICAPS OBAMA’S FOREMOST SYMBOLIC HANDICAP WAS THE COLOR OF HIS SKIN HOW MUCH EFFECT DID THIS SYMBOLIC HANDICAP HAVE? WE COMPLEMENT A MARXIST HYPOTHESIS WITH A RICH VERSION OF A WEBERIAN HYPOTHESIS

5 THE QUESTION OF THIS PRESENTATION: THEY DID, REALLY ? THIS CARTOON DRIVES HOME A SUPOSEDLY DISAPPEARING EFFECT OF OBAMA’S SYMBOLIC HANDICAP

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7 STATE RESULTS FOR 2004

8 THE PREVIOUS MAP IS FOR 2004 AND VERY RED, WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON BUT THE NEXT ONE FOR 2008 IS STILL VERY RED, ALTHOUGH A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WON

9 THE OUTCOME OF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2008

10 THE MAPS WE JUST SAW ARE QUITE MISLEADING AND FAVOUR THE REPUBLICANS TOO MUCH: STATES DIFFER IN POPULATION DENSITY, WHEREAS DEMOCRACY MEANS ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE AND THE STATES WITH THE LOWEST POPULATION DENSITY ARE THE MOST REPUBLICAN THE NEXT MAP GIVES STATES A SIZE PROPORTIONATE TO THEIR NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THAT NUMBER OF SEATS IS PROPORTIONATE TO THE NUMBER OF INHABITANTS OF A STATE

11 THIS MAP IS PAINTED IN BLUE, AND EVEN MORE IF THE COLOR THE BLUE-WHITE STATES BECOME BLUE ONCE MORE THE OUTCOME OF THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

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13 WE NOW MOVE FROM DATA AT THE LEVEL OF STATES TO DATA AT THE LEVEL OF INDIVIDUALS INDIVIDUAL DATA OFTEN ALLOW FOR STRONGER TESTS OF HYPOTHESES WE LATER WIL STUDT DATA ON COUNTIES, A LEVEL IN BETWEEN STATES AND INDIVIDUALS

14 YOU AS A YOUNG PERSON WILL LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH THE GRAPH IS TAKEN FROM THE DUTCH NEWSPAPER NRC-HANDELSBLAD: ACCORDING TO EXIT POLLS YOUNG PERSONS WERE THE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR OBAMA

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16 BUT DO YOU AS A WHITE PERSON LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH?

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18 WHITES IN 2008 WERE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A WHITE REPUBLICAN THAN FOR A BLACK DEMOCRAT YET, THE NEXT CLIPPING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SAYS THAT THE USA IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS JUMPED ITS LONG-STANDING COLOR LINE SO, DID THAT COUNTRY, REALLY?

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21 BACK TO THE DID-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION: GIVEN THE NRC-HANDELSBLAD GRAPH, COMPUTE THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO DOES THIS STATISTIC TELL ENOUGH ABOUT SURMOUNTING THE RACIAL BARRIER IN US POLITICS?

22 NO, THAT DEPENDS UPON THE VALUE OF THIS ODDS RATIO IN THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS COMPUTE THIS ODDS RATIO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING FOUR GRAPHS FOR 2008, 2004, 1992 and 1980 THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE NEW YORK TIMES AND THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SINCE RECENTLY CALLED THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES

23 The n’s for computing percentages for race are 74, 13, 9 and 2, and those for religion 52%, 27, 2 and 40

24 THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO FOR 2008 IS 30.4

25 The n’s for computing percentages for race are 77, 11, 8 and 2, and those for religion 54, 27, 3 and 42

26 THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO FOR 2004 IS 11.3

27 The n’s for computing percentages for race are 87, 8, 2 and 1, and those for religion 56%, 21, 4 and 22

28 THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO FOR 1992 IS 8.5

29 The n’s for computing percentages for race are 89, 11, 2 and not avialable, and those for religion 51%, 27, 5 and not available

30 THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO FOR 1980 IS 12.0

31 IF THE ODDS RATIO IS A GOOD MEASURE FOR THE BLACK/WHITE POLITICAL RIFT THAT RIFT INCREASED IN THE SHORT RUN AND IN MEDIUM TERM ONE AND IN THE LONG RUN

32 OF COURSE UPON CLOSER INSPECTION THE 2008 INCREASE IS THERE BECAUSE IN 2008 THE ODDS FOR BLACKS TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT INCREASED MORE THAN THESE ODDS FOR WHITES BUT DID THE ODDS FOR CERTAIN WHITES TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE PERHAPS DECREASE?

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34 TOM-JAN MEEUS AND DIRK VLASBLOM OF NRC-HANDELSBLAD IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS MENTIONED THE BRADLEY EFFECT IN POLLS CERTAIN WHITES SAY THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE BUT WHEN CASTING THEIR VOTE WHITES VOTE FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE

35 THE LEAD OF OBAMA IN THE POLLS WAS A BIT LARGER THAN HIS LEAD IN THE ACTUAL ELECTION OUTCOME ACTUAL OUTCOME: 52 VERSUS 46 PERCENT POLLS: A DIFFERENCE OF 8 PERCENT BUT THAT IS A WEAK TEST OF THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE ALL-IMPORTANT QUESTION REMAINS UNANSWERED: ARE WHITE PERSONS LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK THAN FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE ?

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37 WHERE IN THE USA MIGHT THE WHITE PERSONS LIVE WHO ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE ?

38 WHICH STATES OF THE USA WERE THE LAST ONES TO DO AWAY WITH RACIAL LAWS? TO WHICH STATES DID THE BILLY- HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLY MOST STRONGLY? WE ENCOUNTERED THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS IN THE FIRST BACHELOR YEAR DURING THE COURSE SOCIOLOGY’S MAIN QUESTIONS IT ALSO FEAUTURES IN THE CLIPPING WE NOW REREAD PINPOINT THE PERTINENT PHRASE !

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40 THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS INVOKES THE STRANGE FRUITS HANGING FROM SOUTHERN TREES MOST AFRO-AMERICANS (BLACKS, NEGROES, COLOURED PEOPLE) SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE UNITED STATES WERE LEGALLY SLAVES

41 AFTER THE CIVIL WAR AND THE LEGAL ABOLITION OF SLAVERY THE DISADVANTAGED POSITION OF BLACKS WAS MAINTAINED BY VARIOUS OTHER NEW RACIAL LAWS AND BY THE DENIAL OF DUE PROCESS IN COURT BY MOB LYNCHING THE LAST RACIAL LAWS WERE SCRAPPED IN THE 1960s, THE PERIOD OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT

42 SO, THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLIES MOST STRONGLY TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF THE USA THE STATES WHICH LOST THE CIVIL WAR OF THE EARLY 1860s

43 THE SOUTHERN STATES ARE THE ONES THAT LOST THE 1861-1865 CIVIL WAR IN THE UNITED STATES THEY WERE CALLED CONFEDERATE STATES AND THEY ARE NAMED: ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, MISSISSIPPI, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA, TEXAS, VIRGINIA ALL THESE STATES HAD LAWS ALLOWING SLAVERY THE STATES THAT ALLOWED SLAVERY BUT STAYED WITHIN THE UNION DURING THE CIVIL WAR WERE: DELAWARE, KENTUCKY, MARYLAND, MISSOURI, WEST VIRGINIA

44 FROM THE TIMES ATLAS OF WORLD HISTORY 1979

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46 DIGRESSION TO WHAT EXTENT DID LYNCHING OCCUR IN THE UNITED STATES AND WHERE DID IT OCCUR WITH THE HIGHEST RELATIVE FREQUENCY ? Two slides from Franklin E. Zimring The contradictions of American Capital Punishment Oxford, Oxford University Press Pages 90 and 91

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50 NOW WE ARE GOING TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE PERSONS IN THE SOUTH ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE

51 TO DO THIS, WE NOW TAKE NEITHER STATES NOR INDIVIDUALS AS THE UNITS OF ANALYSIS BUT COUNTIES WITHIN STATES AND WE STUDY THE CHANGES IN ELECTORAL OUTCOMES OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008 THESE CHANGES FOR COUNTIES ARE SURPRISINGLY INFORMATIVE

52 THE COUNTIES WHERE, IN OPPOSITION TO THE TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATIC VOTES IN ALL STATES OF THE USA TAKEN TOGETHER, THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED ARE TO BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH OF THE USA THE FOLLOWING CLIPPINGS ARE FROM THE IHT PRINT EDITION

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55 THIS STATEMENT APPEARED NOT IN THE IHT OF NOVEMBER 6, BUT THE ISSUE OF NOVEMBER 7

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57 THE PREVIOUS MAPS ARE A BIT MISLEADING THEY PORTRAY BOTTOM AND CEILING EFFECTS IT IS NOT WISE TO COMPUTE DIFFERENCE SCORES: THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED WITH XX PERCENT ETC A STRONG INCREASE OF PERCENTAGES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IF THE FIRST PERCENTAGE ALREADY IS HIGH

58 WHAT SHOULD BE DONE INSTEAD : REGRESS FOR COUNTIES THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE ON THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE AND DO SO SEPERATELY FOR COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH AND COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SOUTH BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE PRESENT MEETING

59 ANOTHER TEST OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE PERSONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE REGRESSES FOR STATES THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE ON THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE STIJN RUITER MADE THE NEXT GRAPH

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61 IN THE SCATTERGRAM MOST SOUTHERN STATES ARE BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE: ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, SOUTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, WEST VIRGINIA TOGETHER WITH ALASKA AND ARIZONA, THE STATE FROM WHICH McCAIN AND PALIN ORIGINATE WHEN DRAWING THE REGRESSION LINE WASHINGTON DC WITH A MORE THAN 90 PERCENT DEMOCRATIC VOTE WAS LEFT OUT

62 OKLOHOMA IS BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE BUT WAS NOT A STATE DURING THE CIVIL WAR FLORIDA, TEXAS, NORTH CAROLINA, AND VIRGINIA ARE SOUTHERN STATES ON THE REGRESSION LINE FLORIDA HAS A LOT OF REFUGEES FROM CUBA AND THESE LATINOS VOTED DEMOCRATIC PARTS OF VIRGINIA BECAME COMMUTER AREAS FOR PEOPLE WORKING IN WASHINGTON DC TEXAS HAD A LOT OF DISTRICTS WITH MORE REPUBLICAN VOTES BUT THAT TENDENCY IN TEXAS PROBABLY IS OFFSET BY THE LATINO DEMOCRATIC VOTE

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64 THAT SOUTHERN STATES FALL BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE IS QUITE SURPRISING SOUTHERN STATES AFTER ALL HAVE A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS AS THE NEXT MAP MAKES CLEAR

65 FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE U.S.A. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

66 THEREFORE IF AT THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL BLACKS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN IN COUNTIES OR IN STATES WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACKS ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL THE 2008 VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD BE STRONGER

67 YET THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE IN COUNTIES AND STATES WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACCORDING TO THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE SO, OTHER THINGS DID NOT REMAIN EQUAL SOUTHERN WHITES MOVED TO REPUBLICAN SIDE

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69 ANOTHER AND STRONGER TEST THE CNN WEBSITE GIVES EXIT POLLS DATA FOR EVERY STATE

70 FOR EVERY STATE WE NOW KNOW THE PERCENT OF WHITES VOTING OBAMA FOR EVERY STATE WE NOW KNOW THE PERCENT OF BLACKS VOTING OBAMA

71 WE ARE THUS ABLE TO TEST A PROPOSITION LIKLING INDIVIDUAL DATA TO STATE DATA A PROPOSITION WITH TWO UNITS OF ANALYSIS

72 MAKE A GRAPH PLOTTING THE PERCENT OF BLACK POPULATION AGAINST THE PERCENT OF WHITES VOTING OBAMA AND AGAINST THE PERCENT OF BLACKS VOTING OBAMA

73 FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE US BUREAU OF THE CENSUS WE KNOW FOR EVERY STATE THE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION THAT IS BLACK

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75 OUR WHITES-DO-NOT-VOTE-FOR-A BLACK-CANDIDATE HYPOTHESIS IS CORROBORATED: WHITES ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR OBAMA IF THEY LIVE IN A STATE WITH A HIGHER PERCENT OF BLACKS

76 BUT DOES THE HYPOTHESIS APPLY TO SOUTHERN STATES ONLY, OR TO ALL KINDS OF STATES? THE NEXT GRAPH CONTAINS SEPARATE LINES

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78 ONLY IN SOUTHERN STATES DOES THE PERCENT OF BLACKS INFLUENCE THE WHITE VOTE

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80 THE UPSHOT: THE RACIAL DIVIDE WAS NOT CROSSED IN THE USA IN 2008 IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

81 WHITES ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN BLACKS AND WHITES IN A STATE OR COUNTY WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACKS ARE MORE LIKLEY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN WHITES IN A STATE OR COUNTY WITH A LOWER PERCENTAGE 0F BLACK INHABITANTS IN ADDITION, IF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS BLACK, WHITES IN COUNTIES OR STATES WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN IF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS WHITE

82 THE ANSWER TO THIS PRESENTATION’S DO- WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION ? EVEN NOW, WHITES DO NOT, REALLY

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84 RELIGION SUPPOSEDLY PLAYS A BIG ROLE IN US ELECTIONS TOO HOW BIG WAS THAT ROLE IN 2004 AND 2008? FIRST FORMULATE AN HYPOTHESIS ABOUT THE NATURE OF THIS RELATIONSHIP USE FOR THAT PURPOSE THE NEXT CUTTING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE

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86 COMPUTE ODDS RATIOS FOR THE RELATION BETWEEN CHURCH ATTENDANCE AND VOTING IN 2004 AND 2008 ON THE BASIS OF THE FIGURES GIVEN IN THE IHT CLIPPING

87 COMPUTE OTHER PERTINENT ODDS RATIOS FOR EFFECTS OF WHITE EVANGELICANISM AND OF CHURCH ATTENDANCE IN 2000, 2004 AND 2008 GIVEN THE FOLLOWING THREE SETS OF FIGURES FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE PEW FORUM FOR RELIGION AND PUBLIC LIFE TELL EXACTLY WHICH HYPOTHESES YOU ARE TESTING THIS TIME

88 COMPUTE THESE ODDS RATIOS FOR 1980, 1992, 2004 AND 2008 TOO GIVEN THE FOUR EARLIER GRAPHS FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE IHT AND THE NYT

89 THE FIGURES ARE FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE PEW FORUM FOR RELIGION AND PUBLIC LIFE

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92 CHECK THIS CONCLUSION GO TO THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE AND COMPUTE THE ODDS RATIO FOR EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FROM 1980 TO 2008 WRITE UP YOUR COMMENTS ON THE TIME SERIES !

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94 THE MAP WITH COUNTIES AND THE INCREASE IN THE PERCENT OF REPUBLICAN VOTES IS PART OF A SERIES OF 14 MAPS ON THE NYT-IHT WEBSITE WE NOW LOOK AT THEM

95 NOW WE PRESENT THE FOURTEEN IHT-NYT WEBSITE MAPS ON ELECTORAL SHIFTS

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101 THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE NOW MOVES FROM COUNTIES TO INDIVIDUALS AS THE UNIT OF ANALYSIS THE INDIVIDUAL DATA ARE FROM EXIT POLLS

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103 THE PREVIOUS SLIDE SHOWS A NICE CONTRAST WITH THE NRC DATA FOR THE PERCENT OF WHITE PERSONS VOTING DEMOCRATIC IN 2008 SURE, THAT PERCENTAGE IS BELOW FIFTY IN 2008, BUT IT INCREASED BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008 YET ALSO, THE PERCENT OF BLACK PERSONS VOTING DEMOCRATIC IN 2008 COMPARED WITH 2004 INCREASED EVEN MORE

104 THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE THEN GOES ON TO PRESENT INDIVIDUAL DATA FOR STATES SEPERATELY SOMETIMES WE SEE THE LACK OF DATA BECAUSE OF TOO SMALL N’s IN THESE STATES THE ELECTORAL OUTCOME WAS A CLIFF HANGER (TOSS-UP)

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113 THE EXIT POLL DATA FOR 1984, 1988, 1996 AND 2000 FROM THE NYT-IHT WEBSITE NECESSARY TO COMPUTE UNINTERRUPTED TIME SERIES

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115 THE END

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120 AFTER WHO VOTES FOR WHOM ? THE QUESTION IS : WHO GLOWS FOR WHOM ?

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