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May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 1 It’s jobs, stupid January 18, 2011 Campaign for America’s Future Democracy Corps.

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Presentation on theme: "May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 1 It’s jobs, stupid January 18, 2011 Campaign for America’s Future Democracy Corps."— Presentation transcript:

1 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 1 It’s jobs, stupid January 18, 2011 Campaign for America’s Future Democracy Corps

2 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a national survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America’s Future. The survey was of 1, voters (1001 weighted) conducted January 9- 12, Margin of error: +/-2.5 percentage points unless otherwise noted.

3 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 3 Direction of the country: slight improvement in outlook for 2011 Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Election *Note: From full sample of 2008 voters, based on research for Citizen Opinion. Health Care Reform Passes 2010 Election

4 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 4 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps research from 2010 onwards. Thermometer: ‘state of the economy’ remains very cold Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. The state of the economy…

5 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 5 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 5 | Political Climate

6 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Obama approval: sharp drop in disapproval Inauguration *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect?” 2010 Election

7 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 7 Mean: 46.3 Net: -3Net: -1Net: -6Net: +16Net: +11Net: +10 Mean: 46.3 Net: -9 Mean: 46.3 Barack Obama Incumbent House Democrat Incumbent House Republican Democratic Party Republican Party Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Political thermometers: Obama more popular than parties, congress

8 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 8 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Thermometers: Obama markedly up and party parity *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past year. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters 2010 Election

9 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 9 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Thermometers: Tea Party at lowest popularity in tracking *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past year. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters 2010 Election

10 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 10 Better job on issues: Democrats no better than parity on major issues Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. Challenging entrenched corporate interests that dominate Washington Working with the opposing party to get things done Dem-Rep Having clear ideas about reviving America’s middle class Social Security and Medicare Jobs and employment Health care The economy Taxes The federal budget deficit

11 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 11 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: I hope the new Republicans in Congress will work together with the President to find compromise solutions to the country's problems. Second statement: I hope the new Republicans in Congress will work to stop the Obama agenda because that agenda is hurting the country. TotalIndependentsRepublicans Democrats +80 Voters seek a new tone in Washington: cooperation

12 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 12 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives? TotalIndependentsRepublicans Democrats +59 Republicans in Congress job approval: Independents disapprove

13 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 13 |

14 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 14 Obama has slight lead over Romney; Independents even DemocratsIndependentsRepublicansTotal I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? ObamaRomneyObamaRomneyObamaRomneyObamaRomney Democrat Barack ObamaRepublican Mitt Romney +2+81Tied

15 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 15 Presidential year voters against Romney – compared to 2010 voters 2010 voters only 2008 voters only Total I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? * Sample represents 2010 voters and 2008 voters

16 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 16 Obama v. Romney: among Democratic base voters * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. Unmarried womenMinorityUnion HouseholdYouth (under 30) I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

17 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 17 Obama v. Romney: among swing voters * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. SuburbanWhite rural non- South White non-college men White non-college I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

18 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 18 Democrats Independents Republicans Total Obama well ahead of Palin I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, for whom would you vote? ObamaPalinObamaPalinObamaPalinObamaPalin Democrat Barack ObamaRepublican Sarah Palin

19 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 19 Presidential year voters against Palin – compared to 2010 voters * Sample represents 2010 voters and 2008 voters 2010 voters 2008 voters Total I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, for whom would you vote?

20 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 20 Obama v. Palin: among Democratic base voters * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. Unmarried womenMinorityUnion HouseholdYouth (under 30) I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, for whom would you vote?

21 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 21 Obama v. Palin: among swing voters * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. SuburbanWhite rural non- South White non-college men White non-college I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, for whom would you vote?

22 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 22 Congressional vote: after election, Republican lead narrows for 2012 I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?* * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. DemocratsIndependentsRepublicansTotal

23 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 23 Congressional vote: Democrats behind but much closer than 2010 I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?* * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic voters 2010 Actual Result Total

24 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 24 Congressional vote: among Democratic base voters I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?* * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. Unmarried womenMinorityUnion HouseholdYouth (under 30)

25 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 25 Congressional vote: among swing voters I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?* * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic “the Democratic candidate” or “the Republican candidate” were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic. SuburbanWhite rural non- South White non-college men White non-college

26 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 26 Priorities for the New Congress Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 26 |

27 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 27 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: I hope that the country moves in the direction that President Obama and Democrats are trying to go. Second statement: I hope that the country moves in the direction the Republicans in Congress are trying to go. TotalIndependentsRepublicansDemocrats Tied Voters and independents divided on which agenda should prevail

28 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 28 Congress’s priorities do not align with voters’ concerns Which TWO of the following do you think are the most important economic problems facing the country right now? High unemployment Outsourcing of jobs Budget deficit is big and growing Wages have not kept up with cost of living The economy is not growing Taxes are too high Government focused on bailouts, not middle class America is not keeping up with China Stimulus is not working

29 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 29 Economy, not health care or deficit, should be top priority for Congress Which TWO of the following do you think are the most important economic problems facing the country right now? Economic recovery and jobs Protecting Social Security and Medicare Making sure our children receive an education for these times Cutting spending and the size of government Repealing the new health care law Reducing the size of the budget deficit Investing in new infrastructure and new industries Keeping taxes low

30 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 30 Republican Congress plans: disapprove actions that raise deficit Now, let me read you a few statements about things the Republican leadership has pledged to pursue in the new Congress. I want you to tell me whether, overall, you approve or disapprove of the Republicans' plans for this issue. The first actions of the new Republican House massively added to the deficit. According to the Congressional budget office, the Republicans’ repeal of health care reform would increase the deficit by two hundred thirty billion dollars in the next decade. Their deal to keep taxes low for those making over two hundred fifty thousand dollars will add seven hundred billion dollars more to the deficit Total

31 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 31 Republican Congress plans: disapprove of described cuts BUDGET 2008 LEVEL (WITHOUT CUTS) The Republicans will cut the federal government spending back to before Obama was president, which will cut one- hundred billion dollars in spending from the current year’s budget alone Now, let me read you a few statements about things the Republican leadership has pledged to pursue in the new Congress. I want you to tell me whether, overall, you approve or disapprove of the Republicans' plans for this issue. BUDGET 2008 LEVEL (WITH CUTS) The Republicans will cut the federal government spending back to before Obama was president, which will cut one-hundred billion dollars, 20% from spending on domestic programs. That would include everything from education to student loans to energy and the environment

32 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 32 Republican Congress plans: disapprove of described cuts Now, let me read you a few statements about things the Republican leadership has pledged to pursue in the new Congress. I want you to tell me whether, overall, you approve or disapprove of the Republicans' plans for this issue DEREGULATION (WITHOUT CONTEXT) Republicans will move to eliminate new government regulations put in place under the Obama Administration, including those affecting the environment, the big banks and consumer protections. DEREGULATION (WITH CONTEXT) Republicans will move to eliminate new government regulations put in place under the Obama Administration, including those affecting the environment, the big banks and consumer protections.

33 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 33 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 33 | Debate over the budget deficit and growth

34 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 34 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Long-term priorities: Investment more than deficit reduction Net: +41 Mean: 65.3 Net: +32 Mean: 63.5 A plan to dramatically reduce the deficit over the next five years A plan to invest in new industries and rebuild the country over the next five years

35 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 35 Deficit Commission: context dramatically changes debate Do you favor or oppose this deficit reduction plan? Last month, the co-chairs of the bipartisan Deficit Commission appointed by the President and the leaders of Congress presented an extensive plan to reduce the federal budget deficit by nearly 4 trillion dollars by From what you know, do you favor or oppose the deficit reduction plan? Last month, the co-chairs of the bipartisan Deficit Commission appointed by the President and the leaders of Congress presented an extensive plan to reduce the federal budget deficit by nearly 4 trillion dollars by It lowers corporate and income tax rates, but raises tax revenues by eliminating many deductions, including limiting the home mortgage interest deduction and taxing health insurance benefits. It cuts spending by reducing the federal workforce by ten percent and cutting defense spending. And for future retirees, it cuts Social Security benefits and raises retirement age to 69 over time. Do you favor or oppose this deficit reduction plan?

36 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 36 Social Security proposals by commission: strongly opposed Raise the retirement age to 69 by 2075 Now I am going to read you some of the specific proposals recommended by the bi-partisan commission to reduce the budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you favor or oppose this proposal to reduce the deficit. Reduce Social Security benefits for those now entering the labor force - by 17 percent for those whose salaries average $43,000 and by one-third for those who average over $100,

37 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 37 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Total IndependentsRepublicans Democrats +28 Raise retirement age to 69 by 2075

38 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 38 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Under age 50 Suburban2010 GOP pick-up seat Women +19 Raise retirement age to 69 by 2075

39 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 39 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Total IndependentsRepublicans Democrats +30 Reduce Social Security Benefits

40 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 40 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Under age 50 Suburban2010 GOP pick-up seat Women +27 Reduce Social Security Benefits

41 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 41 While reducing the deficit is important, creating jobs and growing the economy should be our first priority. The best way to get our deficits under control is to put our economy back on track. That requires investment in areas vital to our economy like education, modern infrastructure, research and technology, and a clear plan to make things in America once more. Critical investments in our future cannot be sacrificed to austerity and budget cuts. We need to take serious steps now to cut spending and reduce the nation's crushing debt, or our country will not be able to compete and we will be unable to grow our economy and create jobs. The Deficit Commission's proposal takes reasonable steps to cut red tape, eliminate excess spending, and simplify our tax system. The commission would focus benefits on those who need them and ensure that the benefits will be available in the future. Deficit Reduction overriding priorityInvest for jobs and deficit reduction Focus on economy to get jobs and deficit decline Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. * Question asked of half the sample, who were informed about the specific proposals to reduce the deficit

42 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 42 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Jobs and employment: “While reducing the deficit is important, creating jobs and growing the economy should be our first priority.” Deficit: “We need to take serious steps now to cut spending and reduce the nation's crushing debt…” Total IndependentsRepublicans Democrats +48 Jobs and economic growth higher priority than cutting spending

43 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 43 We have to reduce our deficit, but we cannot do it with a plan that will kill the middle class. The commission recommended cutting taxes for corporations and the wealthiest, but places big costs on the middle class. It taxes employer-provided health insurance benefits, increases the Social Security retirement age to 69, and imposes a new 15 percent gas tax. Turning our backs on the middle class, in order to cut taxes for the very wealthy, is exactly the wrong way to grow our economy and reduce our deficit. Our country will only be weaker if we weaken our middle class. We need to take serious steps now to cut spending and reduce the nation's crushing debt, or our country will not be able to compete and we will be unable to grow our economy and create jobs. The Deficit Commission's proposal takes reasonable steps to cut red tape, eliminate excess spending, and simplify our tax system. The commission would focus benefits on those who need them and ensure that the benefits will be available in the future. Deficit Reduction overriding priorityDeficit plan at expense of middle class Middle class priorities on par with deficit reduction Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. * Question asked of half the sample and reflects responses among those who were not informed about the Deficit Commission’s proposals to reduce the deficit

44 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 44 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Middle Class: “We have to reduce our deficit, but we cannot do it with a plan that will kill the middle class…” Deficit: “We need to take serious steps now to cut spending and reduce the nation's crushing debt…” TotalIndependents Moderate- Conservative Democrats Republican pick-up +3 Middle class priorities versus cutting spending among key groups

45 May 5, 2015 May 5, 2015 | Page 45 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 45 | DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC Ph: Fax: London, UK 405 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)


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