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Adam Gelb, Director Public Safety Performance Project Smarter Choices … … Safer Communities.

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Presentation on theme: "Adam Gelb, Director Public Safety Performance Project Smarter Choices … … Safer Communities."— Presentation transcript:

1 Adam Gelb, Director Public Safety Performance Project Smarter Choices … … Safer Communities

2 America’s Prison Population at an All Time High National incarceration rate Million and Counting

3 1 in 31 adults under some form of correctional control 1 in 100 adults now behind bars

4 Who’s Behind Bars? Adult women 1 in 580 Adult white men 1 in 106 Adult black men 1 in 15 Young adult black men 1 in 9

5 The World’s Incarceration Leader The World’s Incarceration Leader

6 Policy Choices Drive Growth

7

8 State Correctional Costs Have Exploded $51 $51 Billion Total Expenditures for State Corrections $12 Billion $23 Billion Inflation Adjusted FY (est.)

9 Higher EducationCorrections Of Books and Bars +137% +24% Spending increases between 1987 and 2008

10 Prisons Dominate Spending C ORRECTIONAL S PENDING C ORRECTIONAL P OPULATION Prisons Prisons Probation and Parole

11 Prison SystemsProbation Agencies How It All Stacks Up $3.42 Average $78.95 Average One day in prison costs more than 23 days on probation

12 Return on Investment: A Tale of Two States FL NY Florida New York Prison Population Prison Population Crime Rate Crime Rate

13 States Can Have Less Crime at a Lower Cost

14

15 Prisons: “from a peak of nearly 29,000 to a present low of 20,080” Parole: “for the first time in history, there are more convicted offenders on parole than there are in prison” Recidivism rate: “dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade” Reagan Era: Dramatic Prison Reform Probation Subsidy Act (1965): $4,000 for each eligible offender supervised at local level in the community

16 Reagan’s Second Inaugural Address (1971) “Our rehabilitation policies and improved parole system are attracting nationwide attention. Fewer parolees are being returned to prison than at any time in our history, and our prison population is lower than at any time since 1963.”

17 Diverse States Pursuing Reinvestment Strategies K ANSAS T EXAS S OUTH C AROLINA L OUISIANA A RKANSAS A LABAMA W ISCONSIN M ICHIGAN K ENTUCKY O HIO I LLINOIS C OLORADO N EW H AMPSHIRE

18 A Window of Opportunity Advances in supervision technology Advances in the science of behavior change More accurate risk assessments Increasing focus on cost-benefit analysis Public support for prison alternatives

19 B IPARTISAN R ESEARCH T EAM National Poll and Focus Groups 1,200 registered voters (March 2010) Margin of error: +/- 2.83% F OCUS G ROUPS N ATIONAL S URVEY Greenville, SC Rural County City of Detroit DenverSuburb POS: McCain, R governors BSG: Obama, unions

20 Poll Respondent Demographics 20% 20% Victim or family member victim of a violent crime 48% 48% Victim or family member victim of a nonviolent crime 17% 17% Law enforcement households 43% 43% Conservative 20% 20% Liberal

21 Bottom Line… Let’s Reduce Crime It does not matter whether a nonviolent offender is in prison for 21 or 24 or 27 months. What really matters is the system does a better job of making sure that when an offender does get out, he is less likely to commit another crime. STRONGLY AGREE TOTAL AGREE

22 Underlying Attitudes What percent of people currently in prison in the United States do you think could be released from prison who would not pose a threat to overall public safety?

23 Policy Solutions: Less Prison, More Accountability Reduce prison time for low-risk, non-violent offenders and re-invest some of the savings to create a stronger probation and parole system that holds offenders accountable for their crimes. STRONGLY FAVOR TOTAL FAVOR

24 Total Favor Strongly Favor Policy Solutions: Reinvestment Support Strong Across Party Lines

25 Total Favor Strongly Favor Policy Solutions: Reinvestment Support Strong Across Regions

26 Policy Solutions: Reward Performance Rewarding probation and parole agencies with some of the savings if they increase their success rates and send fewer repeat offenders back to prison.

27 Business Leaders Speak Out Kentucky Dave Adkisson President & CEO, Kentucky Chamber of Commerce Chairman of the Board, American Chamber of Commerce Executives Florida Barney T. Bishop III President and Chief Executive Officer, Associated Industries of Florida Illinois Frank H. Beal Executive Director, Chicago Metropolis 2020 Board Member, Business and Professional People for the Public Interest Michigan James R. Holcomb Vice President for Business Advocacy and Associate General Counsel, Michigan Chamber of Commerce Oregon Erin Hubert Vice President and General Manager, Entercom Radio Board Chair, Citizens Crime Commission

28 “…Conservatives are known for being tough on crime, but we must also be tough on criminal justice spending…” Newt Gingrich, American Solutions for Winning the Future Grover Norquist, Americans for Tax Reform Edwin Meese III, former U.S. Attorney General William J. Bennett, former Education Secretary, “Drug Czar” Asa Hutchinson, former U.S. Attorney, DEA Administrator Pat Nolan, Justice Fellowship, former CA House Republican leader David Keene, American Conservative Union Richard Viguerie, ConservativeHQ.com Chuck Colson, Prison Fellowship Ministries Tony Perkins, Family Research Council Ward Connerly, American Civil Rights Institute John J. DiIulio, Jr., University of Pennsylvania

29 A Window of Opportunity Advances in supervision technology Advances in the science of behavior change More accurate risk assessments Increasing focus on cost-benefit analysis Public support for prison alternatives Budget pressure

30 Diverse States Pursuing Reinvestment Strategies K ANSAS T EXAS S OUTH C AROLINA L OUISIANA A RKANSAS A LABAMA W ISCONSIN M ICHIGAN K ENTUCKY O HIO I LLINOIS C OLORADO N EW H AMPSHIRE

31 Common Policy Options Sentencing Reclassify offense levels Expand eligibility for community corrections, drug courts Release Increase earned time for program completion Base release decisions on risk assessment Community Corrections Use graduated sanctions for technical violations Offer incentives for agencies, offenders

32 Estimated cost of adding additional beds needed for FY 2008/2009: $900 Million A Case Study: TEXAS Tough-on-crime state adds 100,000 beds in the 1980s and 90s Beds added Beds needed 17,000 bed shortfall by 2012

33 A Case Study: TEXAS ANALYSIS High recidivism rate Revocation of technical violators Low parole grant rate Bipartisan legislative team expands use of residential, diversion and treatment centers Compliance with parole grant law SOLUTIONS

34 Baseline Projection Actual A Case Study: TEXAS

35 Estimated savings through FY 2012: Parole recidivism rate: State crime rate: A Case Study: TEXAS Annual reinvestment in community corrections continued by ’09, ‘11 Legislatures

36 Pew Report: The State of Recidivism 1. First-of-its-kind 50-state survey of recidivism (return to prison) rates 2. Data for offenders released in 1999, 2004 and followed for three years 3. States reported recidivism for new crimes and technical violation of supervision 4. Differences in definitions, data collection procedures warrant caution about interstate comparisons

37 The State of Recidivism

38 The State of Recidivism OREGON MICHIGAN CALIFORNIA 28% 6% 67% 19% 3% 77% 13% 25% 62% 15% 16% 69% 14% 47% 39% 18% 40% 42% NEW CRIME TECHNICAL VIOLATION NO RETURN

39 Protecting Public Safety and Cutting Costs $14.4 $16.8 $20.8 $23.0 $24.3 $24.6 $33.6$39.8$42.0 $233.1 CA NY IL TXAK OH NC CT NJ MO $472.5 million One-year cost impact of a 10 percent reduction in recidivism

40 Strategies for Less Crime at Lower Cost 1. Define Success as Recidivism Reduction 2. Begin Preparation for Release at Time of Prison Admission 3. Optimize Use of Supervision Resources

41 Risk of Arrest Highest in First Months after Prison Between months 1 and 15 after release from prison, the chance of arrest drops by 40% Months after Release from Prison 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% Probability of Arrest 1 – 631 – 3613 – 1825 – 307 – 1219 – 24 Drug Violent Property

42 Strategies for Less Crime at Lower Cost 1. Define Success as Recidivism Reduction 2. Begin Preparation for Release at Time of Prison Admission 3. Optimize Use of Supervision Resources 4. Impose Swift and Certain Sanctions

43 Successful Model: HOPE Probation 47%46% 23% 15% 21%13% 9% 7% Control Hope

44 Strategies for Less Crime at Lower Cost 1. Define Success as Recidivism Reduction 2. Begin Preparation for Release at Time of Prison Admission 3. Optimize Use of Supervision Resources 4. Impose Swift and Certain Sanctions 5. Create Incentives for Offenders to Succeed

45 Arizona Probation Outcomes New felony convictions Revocations to prison Revocations to jail SOURCE: Arizona Administrative Office of the Courts, Adult Probation Services Division

46 A Rare Moment in Time

47 Smarter Choices … … Safer Communities


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