Presentation on theme: "The Future of Transportation: Baseball, Hot Dogs, Apple Pie and Livability ? Steven E. Polzin, PhD. Center for Urban Transportation Research University."— Presentation transcript:
The Future of Transportation: Baseball, Hot Dogs, Apple Pie and Livability ? Steven E. Polzin, PhD. Center for Urban Transportation Research University of South Florida September 2010
Disclaimer: The observations are those of the author. Based on comments from : 9th Annual New Partners for Smart Growth: Building Safe, Healthy, and Livable Communities February 2010 And TRB Executive Committee Retreat “Red Meat” Session on Livability June 2010
Outline u Some observations on travel behavior u Some observations on transportation and land use.
Uncertainty in The Future While the level of understanding and the amount of data regarding travel behavior have never been better. We haven’t been able to predict Who will win the next election, Which movie or TV show will be popular, What will be the hot Christmas gift, or, Which stocks (if any) will do well this year. Therefore we shouldn’t apologize for uncertainty regarding future travel or land use forecasts. But we should plan for uncertainty.
Polzin, CUTR 2010 Growth in Income Knowledge Social and Economic Interactions Create Demand for Travel Specialization in Employment Consumption Socialization Time use Growth in Person Travel Commerce Communication Time Travel is fundamental to the human desire to interact and socialize. Travel enables economic interaction and the transportation of products and is fundamental to the functioning of the economy. Growth in income and knowledge fuel the desire to become more specialized in employment, social interactions, consumption and time use. This creates demand for more travel.
I can’t wait to cancel my trip for the family reunion and move to a small condo downtown I’m not going to Disney. I’m going to stay home and watch the Disney Channel on the Big Screen First thing I’m going to do is sell my big pickup truck and go for a walk Americans’ Mobility Aspirations?
Land Use Pattern Regional/national distribution Density Mix of land uses Urban form Urban design Contiguousness of development Conceptual Framework for Thinking About Travel Demand Travel Demand Local person travel Tourism/long trips Freight Commercial Travel Socio-Demographic Conditions Household/Person Characteristics Income/wealth levels and distribution Age/activity level Culture/values Racial/ethnic composition Immigration status/tenure Gender Family/household composition Housing location Transportation Supply/Performance Modal Availability Modal Performance o Cost o Speed/congestion o Safety, security o Reliability o Convenience o Image, etc. o Multi-tasking opportunities Legal/Political Climate Culture Technology Security Economy Business, Governance, Institutional Context Scale of activity concentration Economic structure of service delivery Polzin, CUTR 2009
Incremental Annual Growth in VMT
VMT and Population Growth Trends
Per Capita VMT 10
11 Factors Contributing to US VMT Growth 1977-2001 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS and NPTS
Trip Rate and Length 12
NPTS and NHTS Work Trip Walking Mode Shares 13 Walk is 10.95% of all trips in 2008
Census Work Trip Percent Walking to Work Mode Share 14
Vehicle Occupancies - NHTS 15
Census Work Trips Carpooling Mode Share Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS
Transit Mode Share Trends 17
Minutes of Travel per Person 5+ per Day 18
Person Miles of Travel per Hour of Travel (speed, all trips) 19
Vehicle Availability 20
Declining Zero-Vehicle Households Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS,NPTS,U.S. Census Bureau and 2002-08 ACS
What is Driving Vehicle Ownership and Use?
Transportation and Land Use
Transportation/Land and Multimodal Thinking are Not New Officials at all levels of government are demonstrating an increasing awareness of the need for balanced transportation systems. The Federal Housing bill recently passed by Congress provides for emergency loans to communities for rail, bus, subway and other facilities …. State and local government are also giving increased attention to the matter of improving transit service by coordination with other modes. Wilbur S. Smith, ASCE Annual Meeting October 1961
25 “They said we need high density to make public transit work. “ “No, they said we need public transit to make high density work.”
Social, Professional, and Commerce Relationships are Less Place Based Improved transportation (speed, cost, safety, choice) Improved communications Shorter tenure (jobs and housing) Greater work force participation (social relationships less likely to be made over the picket fence or on the front porch) Government/business replacing neighbors as safety net Economy of scale factors challenge neighborhood-scale businesses and enterprises. (Technology and government regulation enhance the strength of economy of scale. )
Activity Scale and Distribution The average size of an elementary school in the U.S. has grown from 155 students in 1950 to 445 in 2008. There are 6000 fewer grocery stores in America in 2010 compared to 2001. In 1970, there were 34 hospitals per million persons. In 2005 there were 24. In 1970, there were 30,800 car dealerships. In 2008 there were 20,770. In 2011 there will be far fewer.
Do Business Economics Contradict Travel Minimization 1940 - Went to the Doctor 2010 - Went to the general practitioner, referred you to the specialist, sent to lab, scanning center, pharmacist, and the physical therapist (and not the closest one but the one covered by your health plan).
Commuting u Work trip commute appears to be well under 20% of trips and travel. u Nearly 30% of households have no workers or no commuters (workers work at home). u Fees, homestead tax rules, upside down mortgages, lack of portability of mortgages, etc. impede moving to minimize work trip length.
Impact of Density u Future high density residents may not behave as in the past u Income u Vehicle ownership Impact of Density
Where We Live and Where We’d Like to Live Note: “Don’t know/Refused” responses are not reported Source: Pew Research Center, January 2009 by community type
Thus Future Travel is: Energy Costs ? Land Use Density Mix Travel Desire Population Real Income Wealth Value of Time System Supply: Modes Speeds Costs
Comments on Non-Urban Travel? u One vacation is equivalent to up to a 10 mile per day longer commute u How does city rebuilding compare to other mobility accommodating strategies? (Is a country that won’t raise gas taxes a dime willing to transform urban America?) u Managing regional growth versus urban growth.
Funding Transportation I Explained to my banker that if I had money for a new SUV, boat, motor, trailer, fishing gear and gas -- I could bring home free fish for dinner. How could you afford this nice transportation?
$100,000 worth of Tata Nanos Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D. Center for Urban Transportation Research 813-974-9849 firstname.lastname@example.org
36 Future Travel Demand in Hillsborough County: How Much Demand Could be Handled by Rail? Based on D aily Person Miles of Travel (PMT) Transit 2005 New travel by vehicle 2025 New Transit 2025 Person travel by vehicle 2005 Denver LRT Salt Lake LRT Dallas LRT All Other U.S. LRT Source: NTD, Hills. MPO 2025 LRP Portland LRT The total travel on all the U.S. LRT systems is equivalent to about 1/3 of the expected growth in travel in Hillsborough County.
38 Top National Transportation Priority Safety Multimodalism SustainableIntermodalism Coordination One DOT Economic Development Efficiency Intelligent Transportation LivabilityJobs