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1 Cost Benefit Analysis of Infrastructure for Cycling Sven Hunhammar Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Velo-city 2005 in Dublin.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Cost Benefit Analysis of Infrastructure for Cycling Sven Hunhammar Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Velo-city 2005 in Dublin."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Cost Benefit Analysis of Infrastructure for Cycling Sven Hunhammar Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Velo-city 2005 in Dublin

2 2 Conclusions: - Significant benefits - Health effects, if new bikers are attracted - Comfort improvements of old bikers

3 3 Why? Infrastructure for cycling should be treated seriously, in the same way as other infrastructure

4 4 CBA Costs vs. Benefits

5 5 What are the benefits of cycling? Identify, Quantify and Value

6 6

7 7 Net benefit/cost ratio

8 8 Health - large share of benefit

9 9 Saelensminde assumed a large increase of demand: + 20 % of biking - 15 % of car travel 0-5 km

10 10 CBA of bicycle infrastructure Gunnar Lind, Movea Christer Hydén, LTH Ulf Persson, LTH

11 11

12 12

13 13 How will demand change? Hard to estimate Need more experience!

14 14 Only in one corridor? Cycle road A Cycle road B Cycle road C Suburb Town centre Transfer

15 15 Cycle measure Cycle trips on the path in % of existing cycle trips on the construction Cycling totally in the corridor in % of existing cycling kilometres in the corridor Car use totally in the corridor in % of existing car kilometres in the corridor Comprehensive programme % % Single separated high standard cycle corridor %1 - 5% % Single cycle path 5%0 - 2% % Improved maintenance during the winter 5% % Safe bicycle park 75%30% % Information 100%1 - 5% % Road signing / road markings 100%0 - 2% %

16 16 Travel time Twice the value of car travel 10 € / hour in mixed traffic Less on bike lanes

17 17 Delay Twice the value of travel time (on bike lanes ) 15 € /hour

18 18 Comfort … and security Large willingness-to-pay Up to 2 € / trip! Based on SP and RP studies Very uncertain…

19 19 Cost of cycling Purchase, insurance, repair and maintenance. 6 cents / km

20 20 (sum of effects) * 0.5 The increased travel of previous and new bikers Estimated consumer surplus

21 21 Improved health Large for older and activated cyclists Nil for younger and already active 300 € /yr average cyclist 800 € /yr and cyclist in targeted campaign

22 22 Obesity, inactivity Angina pectoris Heart attack Hypertension stroke Diabetes Loss of production Medical treat- ment costs Welfare loss from premature death Deceases linked to overweight, obesity and inactivity

23 23 Road safety According to standard road CBA 0.2 million € / accident Not only cyclists

24 24 Reduction of accidents at intersections MeasureInfluenced accident type Best estimate Uncertainty of estimate Bridge, tunnelPedestrians – crossing -82(-90; -69) no data about cyclists Motor vehicles-9(-29; +15) All accidents-30(-44; -13) Prominent stop line for cyclists in signalised intersections Cycle accidents-27(-61; +36) Motor vehicles-66(-88; -5) All accidents-40(-65; +1) Cycle crossing in signalised intersection Cycle accidents-12(-27;+21) Motor vehicles+39(+5;+84) All accidents+14(-8;+41) Elevated crossings All accidents property damage (-34; +68) (-55; +183) Speed humpsAll accidents – in the street - in surrounding streets (-54; -42) (-9; -2) Source: Elvik et al (1997)

25 25

26 26 External effects According to standard road CBA CO2, NOx, PM10, Noise… 5 cents / vehicle km

27 27 CBA example Investments in the City of Linköping Sweden

28 28 Modebefore %after %before # /day after # /day car 7271, bike 1919, bus total

29 29 Comfort Investments

30 30 Comfort Investments

31 31 Impacts and unit prices used in the Nordic countries for cycling

32 32 Conclusions Main effects of cycling: great similarities in valuation methods, factors taken into account and different impacts. Health benefits - can be great if inactive elderly persons are addressed Comfort and security - play big roles in attracting people to cycling Uncertain assumptions: Accidents, Demand and Unit costs in CBA of cycling CBA calculation is powerful - needed to convince decision makers?

33 33 Recommendations: Disseminate the results - guidance available: municipalities should use it. Exchange experience - test the approach Co-operate in research Improve data - demand and comfort values

34 34 New Reports: Den samhällsekonomiska nyttan med cykeltrafikåtgärder, NV 5456, Naturvårdsverket. CBA of Cycling, Nordiska Ministerrådet, draft Contact:


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