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1 Cashmere Outlook – Trends, Price, Science of Fiber Identification.

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1 1 Cashmere Outlook – Trends, Price, Science of Fiber Identification

2 2 introducing CCMI International organization of leading processors of luxury fibers. Leading authority on domestic and international issues concerning luxury fibers. Founded 1985. Incorporated in USA (state of New York). Principal office in Boston, Massachusetts.

3 3 international Offices –Boston, USA –Milan, Italy –English –German –Italian Legal affiliates –Germany, Italy and UK –USA –Japan

4 4 members Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A. Cariaggi Lanificio S.p.A. Ermenegildo Zegna & Figli S.p.A. Filati Biagioli Modesto S.r.l. Filatura di Trivero S.p.A. Fukaki Woollen Textile Co.Ltd. Giovanni Schneider S.A. Johnstons of Elgin Lanificio Luigi Colombo S.p.A. Ing. Loro Piana & Company, S.p.A. Todd and Duncan Toyoboshi Kogyo Co., Ltd. Warren Corporation Z. Hinchliffe & Sons, Ltd. Zegna Baruffa Lane Borgosesia S.p.A.

5 5 mission Maintain the integrity of cashmere and camel hair products through education, information, and industry cooperation. Not a marketing or promotional organization.

6 6 program Executive Committee meets 3 times a year. Annual meeting of full membership. Education of: –retailers; –garment makers; –consumers; and –the press. Fiber testing Enforcement

7 7 education CCMI educates retailers and garment manufacturers as to the importance to their businesses of proper labeling. –Competitiveness –Customer relations and image –Legal responsibilities CCMI educates consumers and the press. –website –press releases –cooperation with print and broadcast media.

8 8 cashmere trends High end market strength in specialization –Survivors are specialized in rare sectors of industry. –Average warp size of about 80 meters is down from two years ago when it was 200 meters. –Demand is strong but seasonal Problem in the West will be keeping people in a seasonal industry. –Cashmere has cache even at 10% blend.

9 9 cashmere trends Middle market collapse –Warmer winters, central heating, driving to work in heated cars. –High fiber price drives out lower end producers, which is good for high quality producers –We see some middle market garments coming out of Spain, where design-to-retailer cycle of six weeks beats the far East.

10 10 fiber prices Cashmere –Current price of US$ 100 per kg is probably sustainable. Reductions unlikely; could go up. –Raw material supply good. However clip is down somewhat due to weather and restrictions on grazing. Some quality problems are popping up. –Big swings in cashmere prices no longer seen. Shortened supply chain has greatly reduced speculation.

11 11 fiber testing CCMI shops –department stores in the major markets throughout the world for mislabeled products. –UK, US, Japan, Italy, Germany Currently concentrated on cashmere products –including wool/cashmere blends. –expanding to fine wool testing. Testing by laboratories Round Trial

12 12 enforcement Notify retailers and garment makers that they are selling mislabeled products. –they can voluntarily remove offending articles –face criminal or civil penalties for fraud and product misrepresentation –and adverse media exposure.

13 13 fiber identification CCMI role in development and refinement of fiber identification techniques. –Light Microscopy –Scanning Electron Microscopy –DNA Extraction –Bio Immunological Response

14 14 quota removal Cashmere sweaters are classified in import category 445/446 “wool sweaters.” In 1 st Qtr. 2005 U.S. imports of 445/446 surged 69% over same period 2004. Imports from China were up 258% –Hong Kong UP 112% –Thailand DOWN 84%

15 15 quota removal January 2005 U.S. imports of sweaters of 100% cashmere were up 128% over the same period 2004. Imports from China were up 199% –Hong Kong UP 132% –Mongolia UP 503% –Madagascar DOWN 99%

16 16 quota removal Price of cashmere sweaters of Chinese origin dropped 30% from US$ 551/doz. to US$ 384/doz. with the end of quota control

17 17 U.S. Imports

18 18 U.S. Imports

19 19 U.S. Imports

20 20 U.S. Imports

21 21 U.S. Imports

22 22 U.S. Imports

23 23 Safeguards 2002 several import-sensitive products were released from quota. Safeguards were imposed December 2003 to December 2004: –knit fabrics –brassieres –dressing gowns Safeguard imposed October 2004 to October 2005: –hosiery

24 24 Safeguards “Threat-based” petitions: –October through December 2004 industry files 12 petitions. –December 2004 judge halts consideration of “threat-based” petitions. April 4, 2005 U.S. government self-initiates procedures: –cotton knit shirts and blouses –cotton trousers –cotton and man-made fiber underwear.

25 25 Safeguards New filings –April 6, 2005 industry files seven petitions: trousers of man-made fiber shirts and blouses of man-made fiber cotton and man-made fiber woven shirts synthetic filament fabrics sweaters of cotton and man-made fiber dressing gowns (renewal) brassieres (renewal)

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